Fagradalsfjall volcano in Iceland
Statistically, a magnitude 7 volcanic eruption occurs every 625 years.
(Photo: DPA)
Cambridge A massive volcanic eruption could plunge the world into a financial crisis similar to the coronavirus pandemic. Scientists at the Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge and the University of Birmingham warn of this.
In an article published by the researchers in the journal Nature, they urgently urge people to take the danger seriously and invest more money in volcano observation and emergency preparedness. The world is “unfortunately unprepared” for a massive volcanic eruption and the likely consequences for global supply chains, climate and food, he said.
According to scientists, there is a one-sixth chance of an eruption of magnitude 7 or greater in 100 years. Analysis of sulfur concentrations in ice cores showed that such eruptions statistically occur every 625 years.
In the past, eruptions of this magnitude have caused abrupt climate change and the collapse of entire civilizations, warned CSER risk expert Lara Mani, according to a statement. She compares the climatic consequences of a massive volcanic eruption to the impact of a kilometer-wide asteroid on Earth.
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While the combined risk of an asteroid or comet colliding with Earth is only one-hundredth that of a massive volcanic eruption, far more money is spent on observing asteroids than on studying volcanoes, the researchers say. “This urgently needs to change. We have massively underestimated the risk that volcanoes pose to our societies,” said Mani.
famines, riots and epidemics
According to the researchers, the outbreak on the island of Tonga in the South Sea in January this year should serve as a wake-up call. Had it lasted longer, emitted more ash and gas, or taken place in a region with more critical infrastructure like the Mediterranean, the consequences would have been devastating, scientists say.
The last magnitude 7 eruption occurred in Indonesia in 1815 and had dramatic climatic consequences that were also felt in Europe, leading to famine, violent riots and epidemics. The year 1816, which followed this eruption of the Tambora volcano, is also known as the “year without a summer”.
“Today we live in a world with eight times more population and forty times more commerce than at that time. Our complex networks can make us even more sensitive to the shocks of a major eruption,” said co-author Mike Cassidy and a volcanologist at the University of Birmingham.
Experts hope to remedy the situation by better monitoring volcanic activity and researching methods to mitigate eruptions and their aftermath. For example, they are ordering a satellite dedicated solely to monitoring volcanic activity.
The researchers warn that there could be dozens of dangerous volcanoes still unknown to humanity, especially in regions like Southeast Asia that have so far been neglected by science. Less than a third of volcanic eruptions since 1950 have had seismographs nearby to record ground vibrations, and again, only a third of recorded data has been entered into a global database.
They also call for more research into geoengineering methods, for example, to neutralize aerosols emitted by volcanoes or influence magma chambers under active volcanoes. The risk of a massive outbreak devastating global society is significant, Mani said, adding that the current lack of investment is “simply irresponsible”.
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