TCU is college football’s only true Cinderella…at least for the past 38 years…and even then, it’s a discussion.
BYU won the 1984 national championship through a variety of circumstances, but primarily by beating Michigan in the Holiday Bowl to become the only major collegiate team in the country to go undefeated (13-0). In the days leading up to the “Power Five” designation, BYU was seen as a power program at a major conference (WAC).
Boise State defeated Oklahoma to finish in the top five and sent dozens of players to the NFL during Chris Petersen’s heyday. Cincinnati made it to the college football playoffs but was quickly eliminated. And as one observer was quick to point out Saturday night, the Horned Frogs played a tougher schedule in a better conference than the Bearcats en route to the CFP.
Oh yes, TCU also delivered one of the surprises of the times. Not only was Michigan benefiting from more than one touchdown, it was also in the midst of its all-time best season. The great Bo Schembechler never won a national championship. Now that NFL rumors are swirling around him again, the question is: will Jim Harbaugh ever win one?
Maybe that’s too picky. The point now is that TCU is a Cinderella with brass knuckles. The frogs have proven they can hang and in some cases dominate the physical wolverines. So take those concerns off the table in the duel with Georgia.
These frogs don’t know not to win, that they’re not a traditional power…or even a power, given their history.
So, like any great game, analyzing the College Football Playoff National Championship is more about strategy than combining numbers. The Bulldogs are probably better, certainly bigger and definitely hairier. However, the TCU is not intimidated.
How TCU can win
Loosen up quarterback Max Duggan. No one has stopped him this season since the senior took over from the injured Chandler Morris in the season opener. Michigan came closest by holding the Heisman finalist on his worst day of the season (14 of 29) and intercepting him twice. But Duggan was there when he was needed, finding wide receiver Quentin Johnston on an easy crossing route that turned into a 76-yard touchdown pass that proved a game-winning play in the CFP semifinals at the Fiesta Bowl. Johnston played with a sprained ankle in the last half of the season. It certainly didn’t seem to affect him against Michigan.
That makes Duggan even more dangerous, more inspiring. He just doesn’t look imposing at 6ft 2 and 210lbs. Georgia may underestimate him at her peril. He’s not going to be unnerved and will certainly bounce back from an underperforming against Michigan. Has anyone noticed that Georgia has given up a total of 1,000 yards in the last two games?
Duggan has come a long way since having a catheter placed in his groin two years ago to fix a heart problem. But in the age of the transfer portal, he persevered. Monday marks his 48th game with the Frogs.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Michigan game was TCU’s ability to finish the run. After running back Donovan Edwards’ 54-yard rumble to open the game, Michigan averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Backup Kalel Millings fumbled at the goal line. The Wolverines were largely ineffective in the red zone.
TCU forced QB JJ McCarthy to pass in the second half. It almost worked. McCarthy threw for a career-high 343 yards, 261 in the second half. However, this is a TCU defense capable of controlling the game in progress. It only allowed 28 yards to rush at Texas in a defensive tackle.
It may sound strange, but the win in Michigan was one of the more impressive defensive performances from a team that dropped 45 points. TCU linebacker Johnny Hodges is an undersized Navy transfer but leads the team in tackles. Dee Winters (3.0 tackles for loss, interception and pass break up) was perhaps the best defender on the field as another Frogs LB started.
At 6-foot-4 and 275 pounds, defenseman Dylan Horton will be a tough match for the Dawgs, who are coming off a four-sack game. Defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie was sneaky with the 3-3-5 stack that relies on hybrid defenders who can take cover and play in the box.
RB Kendre Miller’s health remains crucial. The 1,300-yard rusher (17 TDs!) only played until early in the second half and then left with an undisclosed injury. The biggest surprise was backup Emari Demercado, who rushed for a career-high 150 yards in his absence. Demercado comes home for the championship game; He hails from Inglewood, California location SoFi Stadium.
How Georgia can win
Follow Stetson Bennett IV to the promised land. He did it once. Why not again? Georgia’s sixth-year quarterback has passed every test — from walking to playing in junior college to sitting on the bench and becoming a superstar. Now he’s arguably the most famous signal caller in program history – a designation that will be cemented if he can lead the Dawgs to back-to-back national championships.
Bennett’s most recent accomplishment was leading Georgia to the biggest comeback in CFP history in the fourth quarter. With nine minutes left against Ohio State, his team was eleven minutes behind. That’s when Georgia assistants spotted Ohio State in a fake punt formation. Coach Kirby Smart was quickly able to call a time-out, nullifying a first-down run.
On the next play after the punt, Bennett threw a 76-yard touchdown pass to Arian Smith. The horse chestnuts no longer felt well; They protected a precarious lead. Bennett solidified as a comeback captain, completing his last six passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns.
He had thrown the winning touchdown pass with 10 minutes remaining against Alabama in the 2022 CFP National Championship. Against Missouri, he led the Dawgs from a 13-point deficit in UGA’s closest game of the regular season. So it’s fair to say: defeat Bennett and you defeat the Dawgs.
Much like Michigan, this version of Georgia is stable but perhaps not always spectacular on offense. Smart likes to spread the ball on the floor. For the third year in a row there is no 1,000-yard rusher. All-American tight end Brock Bowers is the game breaker despite coming late into the game against Ohio State. Same goes for owning WR Ladd McConkey.
As physical and productive as the TCU alumni played against Michigan (two pick-sixes), they were flagged multiple times for holding and pass interference. Georgia’s receivers are slightly deeper and more dynamic than Michigan’s. Bennett will find her. He always does. In a career year, he would surpass 4,000 passing yards against TCU.
Who will win?
It’s hard to buy the Malarky that Georgia just “woke up” after trailing Ohio State by two touchdowns before the fourth quarter. In many ways, the Dawgs are lucky to be here. We address these issues to reinforce how the frogs can get their foot in the door. Anyone remember LSU throwing 500+ yards in the SEC Championship Game? CJ Stroud was perhaps the best player on the field at the Peach Bowl. In other words, there are holes in the Georgia defense. TCU just has to find them.
In the last 138 snaps from the last two games, Georgia has conceded 7.36 yards per game. What the Dawgs have been transforming lately gives the Frogs a chance. TCU will be forced to outplay Georgia and make sure their defense doesn’t suddenly collapse. Not when TCU has come this far and has a legitimate shot at the Cinderella shocker.
A shootout favors the frogs. History favors the Dawgs. Back-to-back championships for Georgia would be the first since Alabama (2011-12) and the first ever of the College Football Playoff era. Convert and bring your popcorn. This is supposed to be epic. Let’s say Georgia 34, TCU 30.