Western capitals are at odds over sending modern heavy battle tanks to Ukraine, an item that until recently was considered taboo for Kiev’s allies.
Such tanks are considered essential to Ukraine’s efforts to retake territory from Russia, which has mobilized 150,000 troops for a renewed offensive. Moscow has also brought the country’s defense industry on a war base to upgrade and upgrade its armed forces. The next six months are critical for both sides.
Why are some countries willing to send modern main battle tanks?
In short, to help Ukraine overcome the blockade on the battlefield and retake its territory from the occupying Russian forces.
Western tanks – like the US M1 Abrams, the British Challenger 2 or the German-built Leopard 2 – would give the Ukrainian army additional firepower to breach Russian defenses and seize the military initiative before Moscow can. They would also be needed to defend Ukrainian lines against a possible renewed Russian offensive later this year.
Tanks are a crucial element in so-called combined arms maneuvers – mobile operations using infantry and artillery – to capture territory. In addition, western tanks would give Ukraine an edge over Russian ones, as they have superior armor, more accurate guns, and better control and navigation systems – allowing night operations, for example.
Why is the Leopard 2 tank at the top of Kiev’s wish list?
Germany’s Leopard has similar capabilities to the US-made Abrams or the British Challenger, but also has some advantages, according to military experts. It’s lighter and easier to fuel than the American tank, which is powered by a thirsty turbine engine. It is considered more reliable than the Challenger.
But the key advantage is its availability. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 13 European armies operate around 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks. It’s unclear how many of these are combat-ready and how many would need refurbishing. But it’s a big pool for Ukraine to draw from. There are also multiple sources for spare parts and maintenance experts.
Does Ukraine already have tanks?
Yes many. It had its own fleet of Soviet-era tanks. Since its full-scale invasion last February, it has captured more than 500 tanks from Russian forces. It was also supplied with 240 T-72s from Poland and the Czech Republic. But it’s losing a lot of tanks to enemy fire – potentially as many as 130 a month, according to Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Few sources of ammunition and spare parts for Soviet-era tanks are available among Ukraine’s allies. So, as with artillery, Ukraine must switch to standard Western equipment or risk running out of shells, spare barrels and other spare parts.
That’s another advantage of the Leopard 2: if its potentially large inventory is made available, it would simplify the logistical support of the Ukrainian armed forces, since repairs, spare parts and ammunition would be the same.
NATO allies have sent armored vehicles. Why the hesitation about tanks?
Several governments, including the US, Germany, Britain, France and Sweden, have pledged infantry fighting vehicles and other armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
The US has announced it will donate at least 59 Bradleys and 90 Strykers, while Germany is providing Marders. These armored personnel carriers also have powerful guns that will give Ukraine additional offensive capabilities.
France said this month it would send an unspecified number of AMX-10 armored vehicles, which some analysts consider light tanks.
However, western main battle tanks, with their tracks and sophisticated fire control systems and heavy guns, offer a level of firepower that western allies are reluctant to grant Kyiv.
The UK tried to break that mental barrier last week when it announced it would send 14 Challenger tanks to Ukraine. The numbers are not militarily significant, but the decision set a precedent that Britain hoped would encourage other countries to do the same soon.
However, the US has stated that it will not send its Abrams tanks because they are too difficult for Ukraine to maintain and other suitable options abound in the region, namely the Leopard. The German government has refused to send its Leopards, arguing that Russia may see it as an escalation that could draw Nato into the conflict.
Why is Germany’s role so central?
According to export contracts, if other governments want to supply Leopard tanks to Kyiv, Berlin’s approval is required.
Germany has around 350 of its own Leopard 2s, although it is unclear how many of these are fully operational. Boris Pistorius, Germany’s new defense minister, said Friday the military would begin technical assessments of the tank fleet’s combat readiness pending a final decision on whether to deploy them.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz fears that Moscow would view any green light as a Berlin-led escalation, since deliveries of Leopard tanks to Kyiv are effectively dependent on his support. That’s why Scholz wants the US to agree to sending in tanks before he gives his approval.