Some observers are still wondering if West Coast conference strength will hurt Gonzaga once the NCAA Tournament kicks off. First, the WCC is stronger than people think – especially this season with three entries – but more importantly, Gonzaga is 20-6 in the last six NCAA tournaments, combined with two National Title Game appearances and two more in the Elite Eight.
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The Bulldogs haven’t won a national championship yet… yet. (For reference, the Big Ten, with whom the committee has an affair every March, last won the national championship in 2000.)
Gonzaga should be the favorite to win the West for several reasons. He has the experience of senior Drew Timm and the remarkable talent of 7-foot freshman Chet Holmgren. He has five players in double-digit averages, he plays defense, and he has future Hall of Famer coach Mark Few.
He also has good traction. The second seed is Duke. Mike Krzyzewski led 12 teams to the Final Four, but never from the West. More importantly, his players have failed twice in high-pressure games: his farewell at the Cameron Indoor Stadium and Saturday’s ACC tournament final. How do you think this group will cope with the knowledge that their next loss will be Krzyzewski’s last?
There are other dangerous teams in this bracket, notably Connecticut (resurgent after returning to the Big East) and Arkansas (steady all season in the ultra-competitive SEC). The committee didn’t do the Razorbacks any favours, matching them in the first round with Vermont, who should have been no worse than the No. 11 seed but is the No. 13 because obviously the committee doesn’t keep a close eye on America. Eastern basketball.
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Davidson can beat Michigan State in the first round because the Wildcats know how to shoot and the Big Ten are overrated. It could be the best first round coaching match: Tom Izzo in the Hall of Fame; Bob McKillop should be too. The second round game between Arkansas and Connecticut could be very interesting, and the winner could be a tough test for Gonzaga. If Duke beats the Michigan-Davidson State winner, he could be in trouble with Texas Tech or Alabama.
Regardless of who appears in the regional finals, Gonzaga should move to New Orleans. The mood might say that Krzyszewski should get the last Final Four before he hangs up his notepad. Duke defeated Gonzaga in November, but that was a long time ago. The Bulldogs have to get from Spokane to Bourbon Street.
Baylor is the most vulnerable top seed in the tournament, and some, like me, think the Bears deserve the #2 seed and the Tennessee the #1 seed. But the committee doesn’t make changes on Sunday, so the Volunteers win the SEC tournament. didn’t even pick them up from position #3.
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However, coach Scott Drew deserves a lot of credit for keeping Baylor so strong this season after injuries and important departures from last year’s national championship team. The Bears better be ready for Norfolk State, which is as good a champion as MEAC has produced in a few years.
However, they should win and face a tough second round game against North Carolina or Marquette. Tar Heels are Jekyll Hyde’s team this season. When it’s good, they can beat anyone. When they’re bad, they’re really bad. Either Caroline or Marquette could have given Baylor a hard night.
The coach smiling the most on Sunday had to be John Calipari of Kentucky, whose Wildcats finished second despite losing to Tennessee in the SEC Semifinals for the second time in a row and were sent to the region with the weakest seed #1. The Wildcats could face a difficult second round game with Murray State, who is 30-2 undefeated in the solid Ohio Valley Conference.
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UCLA will garner a lot of attention for their remarkable run last season from the first four to almost beating Gonzaga in the Final Four. But the No. 3 seeded Perdue shouldn’t be overlooked despite Sunday’s loss to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament championship game. Matt Painter is a very underrated coach because, like his mentor Gene Keady, he never made it to the Final Four. It has to happen sometime, somewhere.
The real sleeper might be Virginia Tech, the ACC tournament champion. The Hokies are at their peak right now and should beat Texas and Perdue will have a hard time in the second round.
The committee always throws at least one bouquet to a non-Power Five team, and this season the beneficiary is Wyoming, who plays Indiana in Dayton.
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Something tells me that chalk will not fly in this area. Hell, Akron could beat UCLA in the first round. Never sleep on a zipper.
There’s no one hotter in the tournament than Kansas, and the Jayhawks have earned their #1 seed.
But their road to New Orleans will not be easy. Auburn, the No. 2 seed here, clearly has the talent to beat anyone, and playing the No. 3 seed in Wisconsin is always like 40 minutes of root canal treatment. What’s more, two of the three most underseeded teams in the area (joining Tennessee) are in that region: the No. 4 seed in Providence and the No. 5 seed in Iowa.
Providence looked terrible in their loss to Creighton in the Big East semi-finals, but anyone who actually watched Ed Cooley’s Friars this season must think they deserved the No. 3 seed. Iowa won the Big Ten tournament, but apparently the committee ended the bracket long before how it happened. It can be argued that the Hawkeyes also deserve the No. 3 seed.
Wisconsin will have a tough first-round game against Colgate, who can shoot and makes his third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Hell, South Dakota is capable of beating Providence. Expect a lot of disappointment along the way here. Miami and USC should be one of the best games in the first round, and the winner will get Auburn in trouble.
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There is also an LSU sideshow. After waiting three years for the NCAA to officially announce that certain rules may have been broken under coach Will Wade, the school decided to fire him on Saturday. That means Kevin Nickelberry will coach the team against Iowa State on Thursday. Nickelberry was head coach at the Hamptons and Howard. He will deal with the situation the way he can handle it.
The Kansas-Iowa Sweet 16 game would have been a shooting range, but the hottest team right now is Kansas. The team most likely to appear in the regional finals from the bottom of the bracket could be Wisconsin, though Auburn’s Bruce Pearl has definitely proven he can coach in March. Kansas has been to three Final Fours under Bill Self. The fourth would not shock anyone.
There was no doubt that Arizona deserved second place overall in the tournament and first place in the South. The Wildcats were 31-3 and won the regular season and the Pac-12 Tournament under freshman coach Tommy Lloyd.
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It’s clear that Lloyd has learned a lot in his 22 years as Mark Few’s assistant at Gonzaga. Arizona has faded for the last three seasons of Sean Miller, finishing 17-9 a year ago after declaring itself ineligible for the postseason amid yet another NCAA investigation. Lloyd quickly changed the situation.
Villanova, the No. 2 seed in the region, does not need to turn around. Jay Wright’s team won national championships in 2016 and 2018 and were the only team in last year’s tournament to scare Baylor by losing to the Bears in the round of 16. The Wildcats are experienced and know how to win close matches.
The team least suited on the field is Michigan, regardless of whether the Wolverines beat Colorado State in the first round. Clark Kellogg of CBS went on to reiterate “the strength of the non-conference schedule” as the reason Michigan took the field. Michigan beat one team on a non-conference field: San Diego State. He lost to North Carolina by 21. But the committee loves the Big Ten.
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Meanwhile, Dayton, who beat Kansas out of the conference, was eliminated because Richmond won the Atlantic-10 tournament and the VCU didn’t have a chance because the Big Ten gets TV ratings.
Tennessee could easily get out of this region. It starts with the tournament’s best history, Longwood, and then plays Michigan or Colorado State. Also worth seeing early is Loyola Chicago. (Remember Sister Jean? She’s 102, and it’s still an amazing story.) The Ramblers are coached by 30-year-old Drew Valentine, who just seven years ago played in the Final Four for Michigan State. They get Ohio State in the first round.
If Villanova and Tennessee make it to the second weekend, this could be the Sweet 16’s best game yet. Houston is worth a look too. It can be a fun region from start to finish.