The NCAA Men’s Tournament Selection Committee released its draw on Sunday night. The following shows what worked and what didn’t work:
What the Committee Got Right: Seeds #1
The drama “Sunday Selection” did not make it to the top this year. The committee astutely recognized that Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, and Baylor had split off from the rest of the top college basketball teams.
[Join the Yahoo Fantasy Tourney Pick’Em $25K Best Bracket Contest]
Gonzaga (26-3) took first place overall when he avenged his previous loss to St. Mary’s to win the WCC tournament. Arizona (31-3) left no doubt that it was also a worthy No. 1 seed, even before adding the Pac-12 tournament title to its regular season crown. Kansas (28-6) solidified their No. 1 seed by winning the Big 12 tournament, while Baylor was eliminated early but benefited from some chaos in the SEC tournament.
If Auburn or Kentucky had even made an SEC title game, they could have racked up enough quality wins to knock Baylor out to second place. The Tigers lost in the SEC Quarterfinals and the Wildcats were eliminated a day later, allowing the Bears to put up an impressive 18–6 record against the top two quadrants for a second straight seed.
Where the committee got it wrong: Duke instead of Tennessee as the No. 2 seed
The committee has done nothing to dissuade conspiracy theorists who claim that Mike Krzyszewski is enjoying benefits. Duke was an undeserved runner-up in Krzyzewski’s NCAA Finals before retiring.
Although Duke beat Gonzaga and Kentucky in non-conference play this season, the rest of his resume has been boring. An utterly mediocre ACC provided few opportunities for big wins, and the rookie-laden Blue Devils didn’t take advantage of them enough to merit anything more than the No. 3 seed.
In the last home match, Krzyzewski Duke lost to an opponent from North Carolina. It was the same in the ACC title game a week later when Virginia Tech left to get an NCAA Tournament bid.
The story goes on
Duke (28-6, 16-4, NET: 11, KenPom: 9)
Q1 record: 6-2
Record Q2: 6-3
Third or fourth quarter losses: 1 (Virginia)
Best wins: Gonzaga, Kentucky, NC, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest (2)
Losses: Ohio, Miami, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech.
The team deserving Duke’s runner-up was Tennessee, who, after winning the SEC Tournament, had more Quadrant 1 wins than any other team except Kansas. The Vols had five more wins in Quadrant 1 than Duke, four fewer losses outside of Quadrant 1, and slightly better ratings in most relevant metrics.
Tennessee (26-7, 14-4, NET: 8, KenPom: 7)
Q1 record: 11-7
Record Q2: 5-0
Loss Q3 or Q4: 0
Best wins: Arizona, Kentucky (2), Auburn, LSU, Arkansas
Losses: Kentucky, Villanova, Texas Institute of Technology, Texas, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama.
The only positive for Tennessee was that his tie as No. 3 seed might be preferable to Duke as No. 2. The Vols open against No. 14 Longwood and could face either No. 6 Colorado State, or with Michigan with the 11th number. round 32. On the other hand, Duke could get a fight from the battle-tested seventh seed Michigan State if they faced each other in the second round.
March 13, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tennessee Volunteer quarterback Josiah-Jordan James (30) celebrates a victory over the Texas A&M Aggies at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Clement-USA TODAY Sports
What the committee got right: Rutgers in the top four
The top four is the perfect place for this year’s bubble team with the fanciest resume. Rutgers (18-13) boasts as many Quadrant 1 wins as No. 1 seed Arizona, but the Scarlet Knights also had a collection of nasty early season losses that weighed down their profile like an anchor.
Back in November, Rutgers lost three in a row to DePaul, Lafayette and UMass, all of whom are not in the NET top 100. most key indicators.
Add to that a Quadrant 3 home loss to Maryland, and it’s easy to see why Rutgers ranks an unfortunate 77th in the NET rankings and 53rd or worse in every metric that appears on the team lists the selection committee receives. Still, the Scarlet Knights were worthy of one of the last bids for release, thanks to victories over every other NCAA Big Ten tournament team—Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, and Michigan.
Rutgers’ opponent in the top four will be a team from Notre Dame, which also has an unusual profile. The Irish beat Kentucky in a non-league game to go 15-5 in the ACC, but somehow they entered Qualifying Sunday with just four wins all season in the top two quadrants, the fewest of any bubble team.
Where the Committee Went Wrong: Disparaging Texas A&M
Left for dead after an eight-game midseason losing streak, Texas A&M is back in the wild, winning eight of its last 10 games. Aggie was sent out of Florida, Auburn and Arkansas during a memorable SEC tournament before running out of gas against Tennessee in Sunday’s title game.
Despite Sunday’s loss, most of the mock brackets involved Texas A&M. Most of the mock brackets were wrong. The Aggies were the third team left out of the committee, after Dayton and SMU.
Selection committee chairman Tom Burnett made specific reference to Texas A&M’s 4–10 record in Quad 1 games when asked why the Aggies did not receive an application. Burnett reiterated that the committee was “considering the whole work” and not “just the week of March”.
But while the committee has always stated that it would consider the entire team’s work, not just its completion, that alone should not necessarily result in Texas A&M’s disqualification. Not only does Texas A&M’s season resume compare favorably with Indiana and Notre Dame in the top four, but the Aggies also boast a regular season victory over the Irish.
Texas A&M (23–12, 9–9, NET: 42, KenPom: 42)
Q1 record: 4-10
Record Q2: 5-0
Losses in the third and fourth quarters: 2 (SC, Mizzow)
Major wins: Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas (2), Notre Dame.
Indiana (20–12, 9–11, NET: 38, KenPom: 40)
Q1 record: 4-7
Record Q2: 4-4
Losses in the third and fourth quarters: 1 (Rutgers)
Tent Victories: Purdue, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (22-10, 15-5, NET: 52, KenPom: 54)
Q1 record: 2-8
Record in the second quarter: 2-1
Losses in the third and fourth quarters: 1 (Boston College)
Tent Victories: Kentucky, North Carolina, Miami.
Texas A&M athletic director Ross Björk weighed in Sunday night, insisting Aggie’s exclusion “doesn’t make sense” and is “hard to understand.”
Where the committee was right: Houston is the No. 5 seed.
One of the committee’s most difficult decisions was deciding where Houston occupies the grid. The Cougars were in the top six in the country in major forecasting metrics, but their resume was nowhere near as good.
Houston’s victory over Memphis in Sunday’s American Athletic Conference title game was the Cougars’ second Quadrant 1 win of the entire season. They previously went 0-for-3 against Memphis and SMU during the regular season and have not beaten any NCAA tournament caliber team outside of the conference.
How did Houston finish third in NET and fourth in KenPom despite no major wins? The answer is that the Cougars went 27-1 in non-Quadrant 1 games and wiped out some respectable opponents, from Oregon to Virginia, Butler to Cincinnati.
The committee’s best bet was to reward Houston with a seed that would not ignore their computer performance and reward them unfairly. Seed #5 in the folded South region feels right.
Where the Committee Went Wrong: Devaluing Conference Tournament Results
We already knew that Sunday’s conference tournament title games ended too late for the committee to consider the results. It’s not even clear this year how much this committee appreciated the results of Saturday night’s conference.
Tennessee won the SEC tournament, but inexplicably remained in third place. Iowa won the Big Ten tournament, but jumped no higher than the fifth seed, the lowest-placed committee member. Virginia Tech went through North Carolina and Duke on consecutive days to win the ACC tournament, but the Hokies settled for 11th.
Virginia Tech finished 46th on the NCAA seed list 1 through 68, one spot ahead of Notre Dame, who became the last team overall to take the field. This suggests that the Hokies either wouldn’t have taken the field if they hadn’t beat Duke in Saturday’s ACC title game, or that they didn’t get a lot of seeding for that big win.
Ultimately, this committee is telling you that the last 24 hours of the championship week are made for television and have no tangible impact. If this trend continues, smart viewers will catch on and switch off.
Other observations:
The lower half of the Midwest region is the weakest part of the grid. No. 2 Auburn needs better defensive play than it has received in the past few weeks to match its high seed. No. 3 Wisconsin is not in the top 30 on many predictive metrics and may not have a fully healthy Johnny Davis. No. 6 LSU without a coach, and No. 7 USC had two wins all season against NCAA tournament teams.