While the Western pledge to send tanks to Ukraine was a welcome breakthrough, it should not be seen as a panacea. At this crucial juncture in the war between Russia and Ukraine, the outcome of the conflict is far from clear, and it will take at least two major shifts in US and NATO policy to reverse the gains made in Kyiv over the past year , to capitalize on.
The first change needed is to recognize that it is time to take an even more aggressive approach to supplying Ukraine with arms, ammunition and other vital supplies. As welcome and indispensable as they were, each deployment of new weapon systems has always been a laborious negotiation. Each step towards more aid was hailed by critics, who echoed Russian warnings that increased aid to Ukraine could lead to a potentially out-of-control escalation by Moscow. But this escalation never happened. Russia’s capabilities have proven to be far less than they or Western analysts touted before the war. You can’t beat Ukraine. You will not wage a war against NATO that would lead to a certain and quick catastrophe for Putin & co.
We must recognize this fact and confidently switch to another basis of aid. For three decades, the United States has been guided by what has come to be known as the Powell Doctrine, which says that if we go to war, we should do so with overwhelming force. It’s considered dangerous to give ourselves a slight edge…because it is.
During the course of last year’s war, we realized that the only real threat to NATO and Europe would be Russia’s ability to defeat Ukraine and get away with its land grabbing and atrocities in that country. We must avoid that at all costs. And the only way to do that is to provide more than “just enough” aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers fire mortars from their position near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on January 27, 2023 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images
The provision of tanks is a case in point. Western governments have been debating providing advanced main battle tanks for months. They have slacked off – Germany in particular. While frontline states that border Russia and are therefore most vulnerable, such as Poland and the Baltics, have pushed for rapid deployment of the weapon systems and have donated truly sizable percentages of their weapon stockpiles to combat, Russia’s larger nations NATO has moves slowly.
The recent breakthrough – to which US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin deserves much credit – is welcome, but also less apparent than meets the eye. Perhaps 105 Western tanks are now committed. But the pledged 31 US Abrams tanks are not expected to make their way to Ukraine until later this year. Others take months. (As well as training Ukrainian armored units.) Moreover, Ukraine has requested at least three times as many such tanks, and experts estimate that they will need perhaps 500 to 1000 to fight a Russian army with inferior, but many more such tanks to make a real difference tanks.
Now we are again having a discussion on whether to equip the Ukrainian Air Force with advanced western fighter jets. Further delays in these and other needed supplies only play into Russia’s hands.
A man stands amid the damage after the morning missile attack January 26, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. One person was killed and two injured in a Russian missile attack in Kiev’s Holosiivsky district, a day after Germany and the United States announced new tank supplies to Ukraine.
Yevhenii Zavhorodnii/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
That’s because we’ve entered the phase of the war where Russia is playing for a draw – while Ukraine realizes that they can only be safe if they play for a win. That is, if Russia can hold the 20 percent of Ukraine it has already captured and achieve a stalemate on the battlefield, they believe that the West’s resolve to support Ukraine will eventually wane and the West will turn Ukraine into negotiations that will translate Russian aggression into permanent, internationally accepted control of lands they have illegally occupied.
Ukraine, on the other hand, recognizes that if it is to retake any of these lands it must be able to argue on the battlefield and at the negotiating table that prolonging the war will only result in ever greater Russian casualties. They must retake land confiscated from Russia and credibly claim that the momentum is on their side. And given the sheer size of the Russian army, they can only do that with superior weaponry and an absolutely clear commitment from the West that our support will never falter.
Senior US officials have told me that because the sides are so far apart, we are nowhere near able to start negotiations to end this war. Ukraine reasonably wants Russia to leave the country and restore the 2014 borders. Russia wants to keep the achievements made. This means that the battles of 2023, which will very likely begin with a long-awaited Russian spring offensive, will be about turning one side or the other from their current unyielding positions as a result of battlefield wins or losses.
To mitigate the threat that Russia poses not only to Ukraine but also to the West, this means that NATO and other Ukraine allies must provide the full range of resources they need to defend areas to the south and east retake and send a message to Russia that the longer this war goes on, the weaker their negotiating position will become.
This brings us to the second area where Western strategy to support Ukraine and reduce the risk of a breakaway Russia needs to change. At some point the current war will come to an end. It could be a truce. It could be a broader peace deal. But given Russia’s history and its repeated flouting of past diplomatic agreements, truly lasting stability will require Ukraine to be quickly and successfully rebuilt and integrated into the European and global economy. Ukraine must emerge from this war so much stronger that Russia will never dare to invade again.
A destroyed building is seen as the first anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian War approaches January 25, 2023 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. The majority of the population is being displaced while civilians struggle to continue their lives in Bakhmut, one of the most intense front lines of the war.
Agency Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu via Getty Images
Worryingly, there is no sign that a sufficiently ambitious plan for such a recovery effort is in place. Even providing enough financial support to keep Ukraine afloat is lagging behind. Experts and Ukrainian leaders estimate that Ukraine’s reconstruction could cost more than $1 trillion. But only a fraction of that was actually promised. This effort will require greater commitments than the war has required so far or is likely to do over the course of the year or years to come. (It will also likely require significant reparations from Russia, which will surely make Moscow howl.)
Now is the time to develop the plans and put in place the mechanisms and funding to begin this recovery effort as soon as possible.
It also has a political component. Speaking to participants in Davos earlier this month, Henry Kissinger argued that it was time to recognize that Ukraine should be part of NATO and the EU. This was pretty much a non-starter before the war that probably wouldn’t happen, although the Russians claimed they were going to war to prevent it. But what Putin did by going to war was to end forever the idea that Ukraine could or should be neutral towards Russia. Putin effectively when he inadvertently pushed it into the arms of NATO and the EU, whether formally acknowledged or not. But given the interests of Western countries, it is time to officially recognize this. It would be another dangerous capitulation to allow Putin to dictate restrictions on the affiliations that Ukraine can or should have because of its use of force.
The delivery of tanks and other shipments of advanced weapons that have been delivered to Ukraine over the past few weeks is certainly a step forward for Ukraine and European security. But as we enter the second year of this extended war, it is time to put behind old fallacies and excuses to act slowly. It is time to acknowledge the lessons of the past year and mobilize to achieve the goal that we must share with Ukraine, not because they are brave and deserve it, but because it is in our deepest self-interest. We must ensure that Russia loses this war and that it is absolutely clear that such aggression can never happen again along its borders.