As the anniversary of the full-scale invasion approaches, Russian forces are likely to come under increasing political pressure.
Russia can claim to have captured Bakhmut to align the date with the anniversary, regardless of the reality on the ground, – claims the British Ministry of Defence.
Russia continues with several offensives in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the areas of Vuhledar, Bakhmut and Kreminna.
But War Research Institute He adds: “The pattern of Russian moves to other parts of the battlefield strongly suggests that most of the forces available for maneuver from other military districts and from the airborne forces are already deployed and therefore do not represent a large reserve for Moscow to deploy suddenly Lugansk region or elsewhere.
The main phase of Russian offensive operations in the Lugansk region is underway, and Russia probably does not have enough free reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter.
He War Research Institutebased on an assessment of the Russian armed forces already in active operations in comparison with the general situation of Russian ground forces on the battlefield, predicts the unlikelihood of a significant increase in Russian offensive operations this winter.
Russian forces probably made marginal gains in the northern suburbs Bachmut and on the eastern outskirts. The Russian Battleblog claimed that the Wagner Group’s weakened formations, due to a lack of troops, reduced the range of their offensives in the Bakhmut area.
He British Ministry of Defence adds : According to reports, the number of casualties remains high, especially in Bakhmut and Vuhledar. In particular, the “elite” Marine Brigades (155th and 40th) suffered very heavy casualties at Vuhledar and are likely to be ineffective in combat.
If nothing is achieved in Russia’s spring offensive, tensions within the Russian leadership are likely to increase.