Despite sanctions and the partial deletion of Swift: the Russian ruble is visibly recovering! In fact, it’s even returning to pre-war levels.
► On the other hand, the dollar fell to 79 rubles on Thursday morning. The exchange rate is approximately at the level it was at 78 rubles just before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
However, the lawsuit is no sign that the Russian economy is dominating the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over Putin. war of aggression imposed, said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Measures by the Russian government and central bank to limit capital outflows would distort the ruble market.
Analysts also refer to the Russian central bank’s high interest rate, tight capital controls and trade surpluses due to still possible energy exports.
After the start of the war in Ukraine on February 24, the ruble exchange rate collapsed, sometimes even 177 rubles were paid for one dollar. In recent weeks, however, the price has quickly recovered.
With the sanctions imposed by Western industrialized countries on the Russian central bank, the ruble is no longer considered a freely tradable currency. In the foreign exchange market, however, the currency is traded with restrictions, which allows for a ruble exchange rate.
► Commerzbank currency expert Tatha Ghose sees a reason for the ruble’s rally in Russia’s high interest rates. The country’s central bank doubled the benchmark interest rate to 20 percent at the end of February.
► In addition, the Commerzbank expert referred to strict capital controls. The central bank limited foreign exchange exports.
► Also, oligarchs and sanctioned corporations cannot transfer money from Russia to foreign bank accounts.
► Analysts also refer to the Russian trade balance. “The trade balance should improve after the sanctions,” said Ghose, an expert at Commerzbank. Because while the export of Russian energy such as oil or gas is still possible, the import of Western goods has been severely restricted by sanctions.