The gist The mercenaries of the Wagner group played an important role alongside the Russians in the war in Ukraine, particularly in leading a large part of the Bakhmout front. But given the weight of these paramilitaries in the conflict and their ferocity, the Kremlin’s control over Yevgeny Prigoyine, Wagner’s leader, is being called into question.
While the Wagner gang of mercenaries helped bring down the Ukrainian town of Soledar, Russia’s top serial killer, Mikhail Popkov, has announced his intention to join them.
This announcement comes days after revelations by a former officer in the refugee group in Norway, who claims to have witnessed multiple executions of his own men organized by Wagner. Are these paramilitaries led by Yevgeny Prigoyine a lawless criminal group unleashed on Ukraine?
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Africa: zombies, rats… In crazy videos, the Russian group Wagner is portrayed as destroying the French presence
It is difficult to estimate the size of the mercenary group’s losses in Ukraine. US Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby estimated at the end of December that Wagner consisted of 10,000 members and 40,000 prisoners drafted into this war, i.e. 50,000 combatants, our colleagues at France24 note. But the losses are also high: more than 1,000 dead and thousands injured in a few weeks, according to John Kirby.
Wagner is also at the center of several war crimes, ranging from the brutal execution of his soldiers who refused to go to the front lines to using Ukrainian uniforms. “Wagner is made up of outsiders, ex-prisoners or ex-combatants, flamboyant personalities… those excluded from Russian society,” summarizes Lukas Aubin, research director at IRIS and author of Geopolitics of Russia, in an interview with The Dispatch
Another Russian war crime. PMC Wagner in Soledar dressed in Ukrainian uniforms. They don’t give a fuck about the rules and laws of war. This explains the execution of three Ukrainian soldiers in a ditch. pic.twitter.com/oIWcJyPuK9
— Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) January 16, 2023
Some of the mercenaries are thus former murderers and criminals who have been imprisoned for years and are willing to risk death and perform barbaric acts to be freed.
“The group also, like the Kadyrovites[editor’s note: soldiers under the command of Ramzan Kadyrov]plays with their abuse and the terror they cause, Lukas Aubin notes. Their goal is to make the Ukrainian army shy away from Wagner’s reputation, which doesn’t necessarily work.”
Prigozhin’s Square in the Kremlin
Given Wagner’s very relative successes at the front, the sulphurous boss of the mercenary group, Prigojine, experienced a certain rise to power. His group is also expanding worldwide: According to All Eyes On Wagner, Wagner has mineral resources in Syria, Sudan, Libya, Central Africa and Madagascar. The organization also uses mercenaries in Mali and Burkina Faso.
But Wagner goes even further: The group has recruited soldiers of African origin, such as Central African rebels, according to the Daily Beast, or Serbs. To the point that, according to Portal, the Serbian president himself asked the mercenaries to stop accepting his citizens in their ranks.
3/n: Wagner recently opened a “Russian-Serbian Cooperation and Friendship Center” in Belgrade called “ORLY” (The Eagles). In addition to strong pro-Russian propaganda, this organization has already started actively recruiting fighters. pic.twitter.com/eYBUk1S2EJ
— Albert le Ver #StandWithUkraine (@AlbLeVert) January 19, 2023
“Where the oligarchs are pro-Putin or apolitical, Prigojine differs: he may be pro-Putin, but he seems to want to get involved in politics with personal ambitions,” says Lukas Aubin. As for his political position, “he is a man of the Russian extreme right, a Slavophile, that is, he believes that there is a “superior Slavic race”, decodes the geopolitician “He has subscribed to a fascist ideology, in contradiction on the Russian denunciation of an alleged Ukrainian National Socialism.
Putin could end up losing control of Wagner
Wagner may represent a quarter of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, raising questions about the weight of this group. “Prigoyine and Kadyrov criticize the way the military operation is being conducted, but they do not oppose the army directly,” explains Lukas Aubin. There is give-and-take logic with the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin seems to be asking for a trophy of the war to Wagner, which would be Bakhmout. If Prigoyine conquers the city, he will gain even more prestige in the Kremlin.”
“But we can also consider that Putin doesn’t have too many options other than relying on these mercenaries, since he had to mobilize everything he had at hand to launch this invasion,” the Russia specialist points out. We could be at a tipping point where Putin could end up losing control of this group, but it’s still hard to tell.”