1672671031 War in Ukraine experts expect ceasefire by 2023

War in Ukraine: experts expect ceasefire by 2023

Former Bundeswehr and NATO general Hans-Lothar Domröse, for example, assumes the fighting will come to an end: both Ukraine and Russia would launch another offensive in the coming months to try to achieve their military objectives, after all. But he expects a shutdown in early summer. Then Russia and Ukraine would realize that there was no point in continuing to fight if it was no longer possible to gain ground, says the former general.

“That would be the time for ceasefire talks.” But that doesn’t mean peace by far. Armistice means stop shooting and enter into negotiations. Domröse said the only remaining solution was a negotiated solution that was acceptable to both sides – “even though Putin would really like to have all of Ukraine and Zelenskyy would like to free all of Ukraine again”.

Badly damaged hotel in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv

APA/AFP/Sergei Supinsky Fighting continues some ten months after the start of the war – according to experts, but not for long

“You need a middleman”

As a possible solution, the former general called “that Zelenskyy renounce the demand to immediately reintegrate areas like Crimea into Ukraine – a transition could be agreed”, as there is a transition period of 50 years for the transition from Hong Kong to China .

UN Secretary-General António Guterres

Portal/Emilie Madi UN Secretary General Guterres as Mediator?

But “the negotiations are likely to take a long time, you need a mediator: perhaps UN Secretary General (Antonio) Guterres, Turkish President (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan or Indian Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi – although no one really cares. impose “.

Possible trades in the summer

Russia and security expert Andras Racz of the German Council on Foreign Relations also predicts that there could be talks between Ukraine and Russia in the summer: “I’m sure we’ll have some kind of ceasefire by the end of the year: with hope to fight more, but certainly a lot less fights.

It is unlikely that Russia will want to fight an intensive war before or during the next presidential election in 2024. Racz expects that Russia will therefore want to reduce the intensity of fighting throughout the year. “Also because the Russian army’s supply problems are likely to increase in the summer.”

Racz recalled that a ceasefire had already been agreed several times in the Minsk accords. At that time, the intensity of the fighting subsided, but it did not end. “It was a limited war where both sides had diplomatic relations, there was trade and energy supplies – and yet the fighting continued,” the security expert said. In a year, it will be a limited war again.

Who can set conditions?

The German European politician David McAllister (CDU) emphasized that the Kremlin cannot and must not impose a dictated peace on Ukraine, that is, a peace treaty whose conditions are unilaterally defined by Russia. “Only the Ukrainian government decides if and when the conditions for ceasefire talks will be met,” said the chairman of the EU Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.

From Moscow’s point of view, negotiations with Ukraine would only make sense if Kyiv accepted all Russian conditions. Zelenskyy does not want to negotiate as long as Russia’s war of aggression ends in subjugating and destroying Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Portal/Sputnik Next year’s Russian presidential election will likely play a role in the development of the war

NATO: End of war on the negotiating table, but not soon

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said it was up to Kyiv to decide under what conditions to sit down at the negotiating table. This war is likely to end at the negotiating table as well, but Ukraine’s strength on the battlefield is decisive for the outcome of these negotiations, said Stoltenberg, who consequently called for more arms deliveries to Ukraine.

NATO must be prepared to support Ukraine in the long term, Stoltenberg said. There have been no signs from Russia that it has given up on its overarching goal of dominating Ukraine. “The Ukrainian armed forces had the upper hand for several months. But we also know that Russia has mobilized many new forces, many of which are now being trained.” He added: “This indicates that they are ready to continue the war and may try to launch a new offensive.”

Despite strong attacks: “Ukraine does not give up”

There were also rocket and drone strikes in Ukraine on New Year’s Eve and Day – then on Monday night there was again an airborne alert in many parts of Ukraine.


Auxiliary Bishop of Kyiv: “Unshakable Hope”

Russian military bloggers reported that, in addition to Kyiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions were affected. Massive strikes with combat drones began on Thursday. Russia has also repeatedly reported drone strikes from the Ukrainian side.

Despite the attacks, hope for peace and a new beginning and reconstruction remains intact, said the president of Caritas-Spes Ukraine, Auxiliary Bishop Olexandr Jaslowezkyj. But political peace needs time, more prayers and more help from Europe – more about that at religion.ORF.at.