ORF: The EU has imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. For example, the Russian economy has been left behind by international payment transactions, there is an oil embargo, etc. What are the effects of these sanctions on Moscow at the moment?
Schneider: Well, in people’s everyday lives you haven’t noticed much until now. Of course, the fact that Western credit cards can no longer be used in Russia, that Russian credit cards are no longer accepted in the West, had an impact. Many western companies have left Russia, like Ikea or McDonald’s. But these are things that didn’t actually cause you to feel anything in everyday life.
ORF: Does that mean nothing has really changed in everyday life? Are all products available? Are all groceries available? And are the prices still reasonable despite the war?
Schneider: Prices have increased dramatically since the spring. The ruble has been falling for some time. You can already feel it in everyday life. But it’s not something that would massively restrict people right now. I think that’s going to happen in the next few months, like I said, when the layoffs, maybe mass layoffs, really happen. Now there are also economists who say that the Russian economy will collapse more severely in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, things actually got a lot better for the Russian economy than the West had thought. Also as was thought in Russia itself. On the face of it, these sanctions are really a ticking time bomb that will not hit immediately, but only very slowly.
ORF: At the beginning of the war you could still see images, also on our television, on ORF, of people in Russia who took to the streets to protest against the war, were beaten and imprisoned. Are there still such protests against this war?
Schneider: They almost don’t exist anymore. There are still some. This is called single wakefulness. Officially, according to Russian law, the only form of protest allowed is for you to just stand there alone and hold a poster, for example, or a piece of paper. But they are also immediately taken and arrested. Many are just scared. Also that if they publicly criticize the government in the supermarket or on the bus or on the subway, they will betray you, so to speak, that you will also be arrested. But that does not mean that all the people are now against Putin. The vast majority seem to be satisfied with this. Some of them have the feeling that they can’t change it anyway. There are also some adherents who believe in the Russian propaganda that is broadcast here on television. It should not be forgotten that all independents, there are not many left, but all independent media are now closed, banned, expelled from the country, imprisoned.
ORF: What role does war currently play in the pro-Russian media? Are they still being vigorously advertised, are they still looking, as was the case at the beginning, for the soldiers needed for this “action”?
Schneider: Of course, there are constant reports, but it is reported from a propaganda point of view that Russia is advocating a just cause in Ukraine, that the whole thing is not a conflict with Ukraine, but with the West. Of course, soldiers are still announced. Some of the Russian cities have stands like this one, like election campaign stands, where Russian men are invited to sign lucrative contracts, including reservists, in exchange for luring the Russian army into Ukraine. And it is even advertised in Russian prisons. Prisoners are promised pardon if they go to Ukraine to fight. And all this shows, of course, how great the need is. However, President Putin does not seem to have the courage to announce a general mobilization at the moment, namely calling all Russian men of military age to the front, so to speak, by law. He probably thinks that would be incredibly unpopular.