by Fabio Savelli
Data from Ipsos France attributes many preferences among retirees to the outgoing president; among the under35s, the candidate from the extreme left wins, among the middle bands Le Pen. Abstention in the younger age groups is very high
The sociological analysis of the first round of the French presidential elections won by Emmanuel Macron, who will face a repeat of the challenge of 5 years ago with Marine Le Pen on the ballot has some surprises in store.
Breaking down voters by age group, according to data from Ipsos France, President Emmanuel Macron shines with 41% of preferences among the over 70s, he gets 30% between 6069 years old while falling significantly. below 25%, i.e. below the 28% threshold achieved overall, in the categories 5059 (24%), 3549 (24%), 2534 years (23%) and 1824 years (20%) ) So the leader of En Marche! He won it in the first round thanks to the drag of the over60s vote, in which he defeated opponent Marine Le Pen.
In all other age groups, the trend is reversed: Macron is chasing the Rassemblement National candidate.
However, among the under35s, JeanLuc Mélenchon prevailed with over 30% of the votes. The leader of France Insoumise falls to 22% among voters aged 3560 and 17% among those aged 6069, less than the overall percentage obtained.
The reason for the abstentions is also interesting, this time a very high level of dissatisfaction with the process of democratic participation. When the proportions of men (27%) and women (25%) are essentially the same, we measure a much larger difference in mobilization based on voter age. Almost half of 1824 year olds (42%) and 2534 year olds (46%) did not vote. Therefore, many young people chose not to vote. In contrast, 22% of those aged 35 to 49, 20% of those aged 50 to 59, 12% of those aged 60 to 69 and 23% of those aged 70 and over.
In terms of sociooccupational categories, one in three workers (33%) avoided surveys, compared to 26% of managers, 27% of midlevel professionals and whitecollar workers. Overall, government employees (25%) are less disaffected than private employees (31%).), although the proportions remain high in both cases.
Once again the census data are confirmed. Accordingly, the abstention is inversely proportional to the level of income: 23% of the abstention in families with a monthly net income over 3,000, 25% in the category between 2,000 3,000 euros, 29% in the category between 1,250 2,000 euros, the 34% of the am most disadvantaged. The political proximity confirms a mobilization gap in favor of the outgoing president: 16% of voters who elected Emmanuel Macron in the first round of 2017 abstained this year, compared with 19% among those who voted for JeanLuc Mélenchon in 2017 and 21 % of Marine Le Pen’s first round 2017 voters. At the same time, 23% of those who said they were “happy with their life” abstained versus 29% of those who were “not happy”.
April 11, 2022 (change April 11, 2022 | 11:26)
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