Vladimir Putin’s forces are desperate and “doubling down on their brutality” to try to break the heroic resistance, Ben Wallace warned yesterday.
The defense minister has warned of further indiscriminate attacks on civilians as Ukrainian forces fend off Russian advances on major cities for 13 days.
Last night, Kremlin officials said they privately condemned the invasion, calling it a “cluster fuck” – “mourning” the collapse of the Russian economy and the loss of up to 12,000 troops.
A convoy advancing towards Kiev from the north is reported to be stuck in the mud from melting snow as demoralized Russian troops prepare for battle in temperatures that will drop to minus 20 degrees Celsius later this week.
The Russians also suffered heavy losses on the ground and in the air when Ukrainian soldiers blew up tanks and planes with missiles provided to them by the UK and Western allies.
Here we look at how the war has unfolded for Putin so far:
Vladimir Putin’s forces are desperate and “doubling down on their brutality” to try to break the heroic resistance, Ben Wallace warned yesterday.
Blown away from heaven
Every day there are footage of Russian fighter jets and helicopter gunships flying down from the sky – recently there have been as many as eight in 24 hours. Such losses seem to defy logic, given the size and perceived sophistication of Moscow’s forces.
Putin assumed he could achieve air supremacy on the first day. Two weeks later, the Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system remains combat-ready and effective.
Consequently, Russian aircraft are vulnerable to ground-to-air fire, which they did not experience during carpet bombing of cities in Syria. Experts also suggest that after this campaign, the Russian Air Force may experience a shortage of ammunition.
Russia’s dependence on artillery is problematic. Combining artillery and aviation in the same battlespace requires cohesion, communication and, most importantly, practice. But Russia did not practice this. Therefore, we see aircraft in small numbers and only when there is no fire from the ground. Perhaps Putin is holding back his best planes to attack the Baltic states?
Unlikely. A defeat in Ukraine would be final for Russia as a military superpower and final for Putin personally. He cannot afford to be distracted by the “next campaign” – especially when his army is also misfiring, with heavy losses in tanks, armored vehicles, air defense systems and thousands of soldiers.
Russia’s dependence on artillery is problematic. Combining artillery and aviation in one combat space requires cohesion, communication and, most importantly, practice.
doomed convoy
A convoy of 15,000 troops, tanks, missile batteries and armored personnel carriers deployed from Belarus was to surround Kyiv and quickly force its citizens into submission, forcing President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender.
But she never reached the capital and has not been moving forward for several days. This huge force is vulnerable to air attacks. However, apart from strategic strikes in some areas, it remained untouched. Why?
Few of the Russian assets pose an immediate threat, and Ukraine must make effective use of pilots, aircraft and munitions. In addition, due to a lack of spare parts and problems with replenishment, the convoy is not moving anywhere. It is better to bomb nearby bridges, which will further reduce the mobility of the invading enemy.
There is also a psychological trick here. As long as the column is there, it’s Putin’s problem, a reminder of everything that went wrong. Large-scale destruction and the death of hundreds of soldiers can be presented as vindictive propaganda from the Kremlin. It can also be counterproductive.
The Ukrainians are counting on the more Russians stuck in the mud — with poor rations — the better. There is hope that they will be disappointed and give up.
The Ukrainians are counting on the more Russians stuck in the mud — with poor rations — the better. There is hope that they will be disappointed and give up.
Great Britain takes a hand
One SAS squadron was deployed “to the region”. But bringing troops into Ukraine would be very risky, given that the UK government insists it will not put “boots on the ground.”
His task is to deliver lethal equipment to Ukrainian units and further training in working with these weapons systems. Western countries also help with target setting and prioritization.
In recent years, the Department of Defense has invested heavily in military communications and interception capabilities and technologies. Judging by the quality of the intelligence released by Britain before the invasion, the money was well spent.
The Ministry of Defense actually published the Russian battle plan the day before the invasion began.
One SAS squadron was deployed “to the region”. But bringing any troops into Ukraine would be very risky, given the UK government’s insistence on not putting “boots on the ground.”
Lost commanders
A peculiar aspect was the unprecedented number of senior Russian officers who died in battle, not only middle and junior officers, but also generals.
Western officials say these commanders were forced to leave the safety of their headquarters and head for “the furthest line of friendly troops” in order to “impose their identity on their men.”
It suggests desperation, the last resort when the battle is lost.
Once a senior officer takes up a position in a trench next to his soldiers, with bullets whistling overhead, he can no longer command the battle – he decided to sacrifice his awareness of the situation.
A peculiar aspect was the unprecedented number of Russian senior officers who died in battle, not only middle and junior officers, but also generals.
Putin is rude
All roads lead back to Putin’s planning assumptions from which the strategy was derived.
If you’re assuming Ukrainian babushkas will be decorating your tanks with garlands of flowers, your army isn’t paying enough attention to basic requirements like food.
If you think that your army will enter Kyiv on the first day of a military campaign and your enemy will lay down their arms, you are overlooking the logistical problems associated with moving large numbers of soldiers over vast distances. Two weeks ago, Putin was considered a master of strategy.
His saber-rattling and the deployment of tens of thousands of troops near Ukraine’s borders were certainly convincing enough to convince many NATO members that Ukraine’s membership in the alliance was too risky.
All roads lead back to Putin’s planning assumptions from which the strategy was derived.
So, having achieved this, why then intrude? The task that Putin has set for his armed forces, to demilitarize Ukraine, seems beyond their strength. They are also unable to overwhelm the Ukrainian people.
No matter how many houses he demolishes, how many hospitals and schools he destroys, he will not calm Ukraine down. The country is too big, too populated, too developed, and too well supported by the West.
Ukraine is also led by a truly outstanding president whose confidence is growing day by day. His people are too motivated.
Putin, with each rocket or artillery shelling, causes them more passionate resistance, not submission.
Desperate days
Yesterday Wallace said on BBC Radio 4’s Today that Russia is not getting its way, despite being outnumbered. He added: “It’s getting more and more desperate, which is why we’re seeing a huge amount of indiscriminate shelling, damage to residential areas – this is outrageous – and the UK is calling on Putin to stop this immediately.”
“We see the Russians just doubling down on the brutality, and we see reports of shelling of humanitarian corridors.
This will be the end of Putin, this country [Ukraine]this is how it should be, not only because of their spirit and their moral component, which is on their side, the Ukrainians, but also because it would be an impossible task to occupy such a people and country.
Yesterday Wallace said on BBC Radio 4’s Today program that Russia is not getting its way, despite superior numbers.
“He exhausted his army, he is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers, for the deaths of innocent people, for the deaths of civilians in Ukraine.
“He is driving his economy to zero because the international community has decided that what he is doing is totally unacceptable and therefore he is a wasted force in the world. I don’t know if he thinks it’s smart, but it detracts from his own country in the world and he needs to take responsibility.”
Washington Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes said: “We believe that Moscow has underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the extent of the internal military problems we are seeing, which include an ill-conceived plan, morale issues and significant logistical problems.
“Our analysts believe that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and may instead escalate, effectively redoubling his efforts to achieve the disarmament of Ukraine.”
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