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- Author, Angel Bermudez
- Scroll BBC News World
3 hours ago
Nicolás Maduro has seen difficult times.
Just four years ago, when he took up a new mandate in January 2019 after elections viewed by much of the international community as fraudulent, the Venezuelan ruler faced a violent wave of international rejection.
Following the example of the United States, almost 60 governments around the world opposed Maduro and decided to recognize the then President of the Venezuelan National Assembly, the opposition leader Juan Guaidó, as Venezuela’s “interim president”.
Political rejection, which in some countries meant the expulsion of Maduro’s ambassadors, was compounded by the oil sanctions imposed by the Donald Trump administration, the loss of control of Venezuelan assets in the US and some European countries, and a denunciation by the DEA, which offered a $15 million reward offered US dollars to anyone who would provide information that would enable the Venezuelan President’s arrest.
While this diplomatic crisis was taking place, Venezuela was suffering from hyperinflation, seeing its oil production capacity plummet and causing the largest migration crisis the Americas has seen in decades.
Things seem to be changing lately, however.
doors that open
Four years later, some doors opened that were closed to Maduro.
Gradually, the number of governments that recognize him and invite him to international events is increasing.
In September 2021, the Venezuelan ruler attended the meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac) in Mexico at the invitation of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
And during 2022, the US government sent highlevel delegations to Caracas to negotiate the release of US executives at Citgo, who were jailed in Venezuela on corruption charges.
In return, President Joe Biden freed Venezuelan Franqui Flores and his cousin Efraín Castro Flores nephews of Venezuela’s First Lady Cilia Flores who were serving an 18year sentence in the US on drug trafficking charges.
In exchange for the Maduro government reconvening to negotiate with the Venezuelan opposition in Mexico, Biden also eased oil sanctions in November 2022 to allow American company Chevron to expand its operations in Venezuela.
Also this month, Gustavo Petro became the first President of Colombia to visit Maduro since 2016.
A few weeks later, Maduro attended the climate summit in Egypt, where he had a meeting in a hallway with French President Emmanuel Macron, who shook his hand, called him President and raised the possibility of starting bilateral work on behalf of Venezuela.
At the same conference, Maduro also shook hands with Biden’s special climate envoy, John Kerry, although Washington soon made it clear that the meeting was a chance meeting.
Late last December, the Spanish government — one of those that recognized Guaidó — appointed a new ambassador to Caracas, a position that had been vacant since 2020 due to tensions with Maduro.
And 2023 began with an invitation from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for Maduro to attend the inauguration of the PT in Brasília in early January. To do this, Lula’s government negotiated with former President Jair Bolsonaro’s transition team to lift restrictions imposed by Maduro’s previous government on entering the country.
The Venezuelan did not attend Brasília, let alone appear at the CELAC summit in Argentina weeks later, to which he was also invited. However, these invites show some changes in the treatment of Maduro.
But what finally made possible this new, still timid, introduction of Maduro to the international stage?
Credit, MIRAFLORES PALACE
caption,
Macron and Maduro shook hands at the climate summit in Egypt
From Guaidó to Ukraine
Geoff Ramsey, director of the Venezuela program at the Washington Office for Latin America (WOLA), an American NGO focused on care in Latin America), believes the change is a sign of pragmatism.
The international community assumes that Trump’s strategy of “maximum pressure” on Maduro through the recognition of Guaidó and through threats and sanctions cannot bring about change in Venezuela.
“We are entering a new phase where more countries in the region are acknowledging the reality that Maduro, although he does not have a democratic mandate, is the de facto power in the country, which is why it is necessary to create at least a minimum level of power Communicating with government officials,” says Ramsey.
These pragmatic attitudes have been reinforced by changes in the regional and international environment.
Venezuelan internationalist Elsa Cardoso points out that Latin America has faced a political shift with recent elections of leftist governments in Honduras, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Bolivia.
“This sets a framework in which, particularly in Latin America, there is a growing tendency to put aside human rights issues, questions about the characteristics of the political regime and a return to the old agenda of more of noninterference in other countries’ affairs,” commented.
This could benefit Maduro by giving less weight to allegations of antidemocratic practices and human rights abuses attributed to him which Caracas denies and which have been backed up by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, among others.
Benedicte Bull, a professor of political science at the University of Oslo’s Center for Environmental Development and director of the Norwegian Research Network for Latin America, points out that Biden is maintaining a policy towards Venezuela from Trump’s, but will not adopt a very radical turn in this regard.
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Petro is the first Colombian president to travel to Caracas since 2016
“Given the geopolitical situation in the world, with the war in Ukraine, the United States already has enough battles to deal with. So there’s not much point in taking such a hard line on Venezuela,” Bull told BBC News Mundo (service in BBC Spanish).
International relations specialist Elsa Cardozo explains that the Ukraine conflict has changed the priorities of the United States and Europe and led to a strategic reassessment of oil.
This benefits Maduro, although Venezuela is no longer a major producer and cannot fill the energy market vacuum created by the sanctions against Moscow in the short term, even after the sanctions are lifted.
William Neuman, former New York Times correspondent in the country and author of a recent book on Venezuela entitled Things Are Never So Bad That They Can’t Get Worse ) points in particular to the importance of the changes in Colombia and Brazil.
“These countries were two of America’s key allies who supported Trump’s policies of recognizing Juan Guaidó and isolating Maduro. It makes sense that now that the presidents allied with Trump are gone, they would change their position. In addition, Petro and Lula are leftleaning.”
“It also makes sense that, as Venezuela’s neighbors, they have diplomatic ties with the Venezuelan government, which Maduro owns,” he points out.
What is Maduro looking for?
BBC News Mundo has asked both Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry and the country’s Ministry of Communications and Information to liaise with the Maduro government on the matter, but no response had been received at the time of this report’s publication.
However, the Venezuelan leader has repeatedly expressed his interest in normalizing relations with the United States and has called for a more pragmatic policy from Washington.
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Trump supported Juan Guaidó and applied a policy of maximum pressure on Maduro
“Venezuela is ready, absolutely ready, to yield to a process of normalizing diplomatic, consular and political relations with this US administration and with the governments that may come,” he said in an interview broadcast by telesur in early January.
While Maduro has managed to survive “maximum pressure” policies and the Venezuelan economy has recently managed to emerge from hyperinflation and embark on timid growth, Geoff Ramsey warns that the Venezuelan president is in a weaker position than it may seem.
“Maduro continues to be seen as an autocratic president without a democratic mandate and is still very stigmatized in the region and in the world, so it’s not easy for him,” he says.
“It is very easy to overestimate the strength of your government at this moment, but Maduro is still in a precarious situation, with an economy in crisis, and he needs international legitimacy and ways out of sanctions,” he added added.
He points out that the Chavista president relies on the support he receives from his own party’s military and political factions. Therefore, the opportunity to reintegrate into the international community would help him demonstrate to his own military and political elite that he is solving the crisis in Venezuela.
Benedicte Bull agrees that the improvements registered by the Venezuelan economy are temporary and that the foundations of this recovery are very fragile.
“Now you can see that the growth figures are falling again and inflation is not under control, although it has fallen sharply,” says the expert.
“What we have seen is the result of very indiscriminate liberalization to deal with the crisis, but the fundamentals have not improved. So Maduro urgently needs investment because all public services are still in a terrible state and he obviously needs investment in the oil,” he adds.
Legitimizing and gaining international acceptance would allow Maduro more autonomy.
“It would mean being able to move internationally without fear [de ser preso e processado] and be able to restore economic management capacity. That’s why he insists so much on the issue of sanctions,” says Elsa Cardozo, who believes the Venezuelan leader is seeking a new balance to ease criminal and economic pressures on his government.
But where are the limits of this process?
borders and red lines
William Neuman warns that just because there are countries restoring diplomatic ties with Venezuela or recognizing Maduro as president doesn’t mean they support him.
“It’s one thing to talk, to maintain relationships, to keep trade and another thing to support. Having diplomatic relations does not mean supporting a government. Relationships are between countries. So Maduro and his antidemocratic policies are the biggest obstacles. ” [para sua reinserção internacional]. He remains an authoritarian leader who violates his country’s democratic norms on a daily basis.”
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Venezuela has a dollarized economy
Geoff Ramsey believes it will be very difficult for countries in the region to fully normalize relations with the Maduro government as long as massive human rights abuses continue in Venezuela.
However, he points out that private diplomacy can sometimes be very effective in encouraging behavioral change.
“I believe this is the bet of several governments in the region, including the Petro government. We see signs of interest in several Latin American countries to play an active role in finding a peaceful and democratic solution to the Venezuelan crisis,” he said.
In any case, the full reintegration of Venezuela into the international community is conditional on the lifting of sanctions by the United States, which is concurrently dependent on an agreement between the Maduro government and the Venezuelan opposition to hold free elections in 2024 competitively.
“Unless the world sees clear signs that there really is a chance of competitive elections in 2024, I don’t think Maduro will be able to fully normalize relations,” Ramsey said.
“This government remains a pariah in Latin America, Europe and for many other governments around the world, and there is no greater interest in reestablishing diplomatic relations with Venezuela unless there is concrete progress in the negotiation process in Mexico,” he adds.
However, free elections require the fulfillment of a number of important conditions, including the release of socalled political prisoners, full authorization of opposition leaders who are legally barred from standing or living in exile, ensuring an impartial electoral body and, among other things, access for the opposition to the media and for international observation.
At the same time, in addition to the sanctions being lifted, there are other issues that need to be clarified for Maduro, such as control over Venezuelan assets abroad and the allegations of drug trafficking and crimes against humanity brought against him by the International Criminal Court.
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The Maduro government and the Venezuelan opposition held a dialogue in Mexico
‘Difficult’ and ‘complex’ are the words Benedicte Bull uses when asked about the possibility of reaching agreement on all these issues.
“Whoever the situation in Venezuela over the last 20 years can hardly believe that the government will allow free elections in which they risk losing,” says Bull.
“But at the same time, we’ve seen some elements that give at least a little bit of hope, and I think there’s strong incentives for that now,” he adds.
Ramsey points out that while Venezuela has had five failed dialogue processes in the past eight years, things may be different now that Maduro faces different incentives.
“Maduro has a major liquidity problem and he knows he cannot improve Venezuela’s economy without easing sanctions, so he must return to the negotiating table with the opposition.”
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Protests against low wages continue in Venezuela
“Furthermore, he does not rule alone, as he depends on a number of political and military elites, many of whom are interested in changing the country and are tacitly pushing within Chavismo to promote this dialogue process as well,” he points out.
For his part, William Neuman is skeptical. “I don’t think we will see completely free elections in Venezuela in 2024,” he says.
But if there is no agreement on the possibility, there will be no lifting of sanctions either, meaning Maduro’s position could be as compromised internationally as it was four years ago.