Will second time be good for Kevin McCarthy? After a failure in 2015, the California congressman is hoping to become Speaker of the House two months after the Republicans narrowly won Tuesday’s midterms. But uncertainty hangs over the rebellion of a dozen rebellious Conservative elected and McCarthy’s minimal room for maneuver. Who wants to avoid a historic defeat: It’s been 100 years since all parliamentary speakers were elected in the first ballot.
Who is Kevin McCarthy?
First elected in 2006 for the Bakersfield region, a rural area in central California, he rose through the ranks of the Republican Party and made sure not to stop anyone. In 2015, after John Boehner’s resignation, he was the favorite to be spokesman. But a mistake in an interview in which he implied the purpose of the Benghazi Commission of Inquiry was primarily to court Hillary Clinton, and allegations of infidelity prompted him to withdraw his candidacy. After Paul Ryan retired in 2018, McCarthy became the Republican minority leader.
Why isn’t his victory guaranteed?
The red tide did not spill over Congress in November. With 222 Republicans elected out of 435, Kevin McCarthy owes just four defectors to stay above an absolute majority (218). However, he could be elected with fewer votes if some Republicans simply vote “present” and not against him. In recent weeks, McCarthy has been courting MPs for the Freedom Caucus, a far-right Trumpist faction. He vowed not to give Ukraine a blank check and to launch a parliamentary inquiry into Hunter Biden. On Sunday, he agreed to reintroduce a rule that would allow an application for the head of a speaker to be submitted with just five votes. He convinced Marjorie Taylor Greene, but nine elected officials, including Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar, are threatening not to back him.
Why could the Republican Party descend into “chaos”?
Former announcer Newt Gingrich banged his fist on the table and said it was “McCarthy or Chaos”. If McCarthy is not directly elected, negotiations would proceed ahead of a second round, and others if necessary. The Californian-elect could try one last time to seduce his critics, but at the risk of seeing opponents like his lieutenant Steve Scalise, Trump loyalist Jim Jordan or North Carolina representative Patrick McHenry emerge. Since the Tea Party’s breakthrough in 2009, the Republican Party has been torn between centrists and ultraconservatives. Even if elected, McCarthy risks being a fragile boss, with a union that could explode at the first obstacle, like the budget vote.