If the war in Ukraine escalates further, Norwegian intelligence fears the conflict will spread to the Nordic country. Norway will be one of Moscow’s first targets if war breaks out between Russia and NATO, writes the FAZ, citing a report by the Norwegian secret service.
In their annual risk analysis, intelligence officials described Russia as an increasingly “unpredictable” neighbor. Although it is currently weakened by the war in Ukraine, it could increase its fighting strength again in the next five to ten years. New missile systems would further reduce the warning time of an attack.
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But even if the conflict does not spill over to NATO, Norway could fall victim to Russian sabotage. Europe is increasingly dependent on Norwegian energy supplies, which could make infrastructure a prime target. The scenario would become more likely the worse Russia gets in the Ukraine war, according to secret service officials.
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In addition, the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO would mean a security problem for Moscow, since the length of the border with the western defense alliance would double – from 1200 to about 2600 kilometers, writes “FAZ”.
Secret Service officials are also not very optimistic about a possible change of power in Russia. The domestic political situation is unstable, which in turn can lead to elite power struggles. In extreme cases, Norwegians fear that civil war could break out in the neighboring country. (teaspoon)
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