Republican-elected Kevin McCarthy during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington December 14, 2022. J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/AP
The official switchover is scheduled for Tuesday, January 3 at 12 p.m. in Washington (6 p.m. in Paris). The new members of the US Congress elected during the midterms in November must meet to take the two-year oath. This will be the moment when Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives, and United States President Joe Biden will have to contend with a divided House for the first time since taking office: his Democratic Party kept doing it control of the Senate, but the Republican opposition won a very narrow majority in the lower house.
“Americans are poised for a turning point after two disastrous years under the leadership of the only Democratic party,” say the Republican-elect, who have promised to launch a series of probes into Joe Biden’s handling of the pandemic or America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But before they start such hostilities, they must agree to elect the President of the House of Representatives, which is by no means obvious as divisions within the party run deep. The speaker, the third most important figure in American politics after the president and vice president, will be elected on Tuesday in the plenary chamber by a simple majority.
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Kevin McCarthy weakened
Seven years after his first attempt, Kevin McCarthy, who has led the Republican faction in the lower house of Congress since 2014, is hoping for revenge. But the elected representative from California was weakened by the Republicans’ poor performance in the midterm elections, and the “huge wave” forecast by the conservatives failed to materialize.
The party only has 222 seats and needs 218 votes to be elected. However, a small group of elected officials who are very close to Donald Trump have indicated he would set his terms before endorsing him. They accuse him of not having adequately defended the former president. Three even publicly said they would vote against him. “Kevin doesn’t believe in anything, he has no ideology,” attacked Matt Gaetz, a turbulent Florida elected official.
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Kevin McCarthy seems to want to make promises so that history does not stutter: in 2015 he narrowly failed to become speaker of the House of Representatives in the face of a revolt by the right-wing party. But he also can’t afford to go overboard and alienate moderate Republicans. Although its room for maneuver is limited, it currently has no credible competitor. Only the name of the group leader Steve Scalise circulates as another possibility, without his chances appearing serious.
Systematic resistance?
With the majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives, Joe Biden and the Democrats will therefore not be able to push through any new major projects. But with a Senate in the hands of the Democrats, neither will their rivals.
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Will Republicans hole up in systematic opposition? To do that, they would have to come to an agreement while some of their elected officials vote with Democrats, as they did in the budget vote before Christmas.
The choice of speaker will therefore also serve to gauge his ability to harm the President. Facing a hostile chamber could prove a political boon for Joe Biden if he confirms his intention to run again in 2024 – a decision he is scheduled to announce earlier this year. In the event of legislative paralysis, he will no doubt blame the deadlock on weakened Republicans in hopes of turning the situation to his advantage.
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