The Ukrainian government launched a counteroffensive in the south on August 29 with the goal of retaking Kherson, a city of over 290,000 before the Russian invasion and located on the Dnieper estuary. If Mykolayiv is the last Ukrainian bulwark on the southern belt, which Putin’s army bombs every day without being able to bring it under control, so far from Odessa, Kherson is the first city in Russian hands to be conquered over time the first violent offensive.
Counter-offensive in Kherson, the scenario
There are only a hundred kilometers between Mykolayiv and Kherson, if the Ukrainians were really able to liberate this southern area and thus connect the two areas, it would be an obvious failure of the Russian strategy, which despite the huge losses in men and military vehicles ( not to mention the destruction and casualties left on the ground) In fact, the only result that could be presented to the public would be the enlargement of Donbass.
The offensive of 🇺🇦 Kherson continues. As with yesterday, there are very few confirmed changes to control at this point.
In the case of Pravdyne, the settlement has changed hands several times since the offensive began. pic.twitter.com/vGZimxu0Kx
– Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) August 31, 2022
Zelenskyy’s strategy
But the Kherson counteroffensive is also crucial for Zelenskyy: he has been urging western countries, the US and the EU to get more effective weapons, starting with highly mobile artillery missile systems (Himars), but now he has to demonstrate the support received was helpful and Ukraine’s ability to repel the invaders, at least in the southern part. The time horizon is therefore the last four months of 2022. The Ukrainian military leaders are convinced that it is possible to resume Kherson by the end of the year, even taking advantage of the losses suffered by the Russians and the ground morale of the Moscow soldiers; Zelenskyy was more cautious, but the resumption of the negotiations is only possible if there is a consolidation of the positions. Then you can work on a compromise.
propaganda
Today Yuriy Sobolevskyi, deputy head of the Kherson regional council said: Ukrainian troops were successful in Kherson, Beryslav and Kakhovka districts. The Russian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said Ukraine’s attempts to organize a counter-offensive in the south had failed. It is difficult to disentangle the two propaganda. According to Ukraine Pravda, “Last night the missile and artillery units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled two checkpoints, two warehouses with ammunition, anti-aircraft equipment, a radar station and enemy artillery concentration areas. The Ukrainian army established fire control on the Kakhovsky and Antonivskyi road bridges ». It must be said that compared to the bombastic claims made by Moscow immediately after the invasion began, when it assured that it would be a special lightning operation, the focus was on taking Kyiv and overthrowing Zelenskyy – an obviously failed project – to concentrate The fact that there is now talk of a Ukrainian counter-offensive is in itself a change of scenery. Until a few months ago, this seemed impossible, even to many Italian analysts. But now everything will depend on the fate of Kherson, considering that recapturing a civilian-inhabited city under the control of an invading army is not only a difficult operation, but inevitably a bearer of suffering.
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