Colonel Markus Reisner analyzes the war in Ukraine. It predicts long-duration combat operations with the potential for dangerous escalation.
The war in Ukraine continues in full force. While the Ukrainians are making the Russians pay in blood for every inch of ground gained, the losses are piling up in their own ranks. The heaviest fighting is taking place around the city of Severodonetsk, where Vladimir Putin’s army is trying to cut off all supplies and encircle the Ukrainians with a pincer movement from the north and south.
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Despite already heavy losses, the Russians continue to hold three fronts – Kharkiv, Donbass and Kherson. “The beginning of the Russian offensive in the Donbass shows that the Russian armed forces are still convinced that they can make a decision in their favor on the battlefield”, analyzes Army Colonel Markus Reisner for the internal magazine “Truppendienst”. The shift to slower, more traditional tactics clearly bears the signature of Commander-in-Chief General Alexander Dvornikow.
According to the head of the development department of the Military Academy Theresa, a possible success for the Russians will depend on them being able to continuously bring their own forces and reserves into the combat zone and, at the same time, preventing the Ukrainians from doing exactly This one.
They are currently trying to force Russian forces out of Donbass through locally limited attacks to the north and east of Kharkiv, near Zaporizhia and Kherson. It still lacks heavy equipment and the air defense cover needed for a major counter-offensive. Reisner sees more “medium-term” opportunities for this, but only on the condition of massive Western military aid.
“There is still a risk that both sides will try to change things by climbing directly onto the battlefield or into the depths of both countries,” warns the expert. Putin has managed to use chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons, which the Ukrainians further stylize attacks on Russian territory “as a legitimate means of defense”.
Read more: Vladimir Putin already controls fifth of Ukraine
On the other hand, according to Reisner, it is noteworthy that there have apparently already been repeated launches of “kamikaze” drones over the Enerhodar nuclear plant, southwest of Zaporizhia, which has been taken over by Russian forces. “Both sides accuse each other of being responsible for these operations.”
At the same time, pressure on the Kremlin continues to grow as a result of attacks on Russian territory and Transnistria. But: “This could very well have been staged by Russia itself to justify further mobilization of its own in the coming weeks.”
Contrary to his own assessment the day after the war began, the colonel does not see the conflict coming to an end anytime soon: “The prospects of being able to end the war rapidly are diminishing, while the suffering of the civilian population becomes increasingly unbearable”.
Furthermore, the first indicators of an ongoing supra-regional economic war can be seen. For the European Union, there is now a growing challenge that member states cannot agree on a coherent long-term strategy such as embargoes. For Putin, that would be a welcome weakness that the former KGB agent would certainly know how to exploit.
rcp navigation account Time15.06.2022, 14:45| Act: 06/15/2022, 15:12