Russia is currently attacking the front elements of the armed forces conducting its offensive on the first anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine.
What should have been a victorious blitzkrieg for Putin has, over the weeks and months, turned from setbacks into disappointments into a war of position that is eating up his forces and resources.
The Russians did not make any major breakthroughs. Frustrated, they took revenge with strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.
NATO has crossed Russia’s “red lines” one after the other. From HIMARS missiles to Leopard tanks to Patriot missile defense systems to fighter jets: the member countries have supplied Ukraine with weapons adapted to the various phases of the war (see above).
Peace negotiations or escalation
The West has less and less hope of forcing Russia into peace talks that would follow Ukraine’s victory in the ensuing battle.
What will Putin do when he sees his inability to conquer and subjugate all of Ukraine? It is likely that he will try to prolong the conflict until the pro-Ukrainian governments are replaced by others that are anti-Kiev or less pro-Kiev. Like the Republicans in the US.
The Russian people as a whole still support the war. There is undoubtedly a threshold of human loss and money that could change his mind.
Putin is not subject to the same political pressures as the leaders of democratic countries.
A victory that is difficult to imagine
It is difficult to imagine the conditions that would lead to a victory for Ukraine. Giving control of Donbass and Crimea — two Russian-speaking regions — to Putin would reward aggression. A danger to the other former members of the Eastern bloc. Their loss would be fatal for Putin.
Even if Putin agrees to stop fighting, it will only be temporary while he is in the Kremlin. A free Ukraine is only possible with a united West and a weakened and isolated Russia.
The new conflict environment will require the continued presence of increased NATO operational forces in Eastern Europe and a significant increase in member countries’ military budgets.
