Like China, whose population has declined for the first time in more than 60 years, other countries, particularly in Europe and Asia, will experience population declines over the next few decades.
• Also read: China’s population is shrinking for the first time in more than 60 years
This report is based on the population forecast published by the UN last July, which includes projections up to 2100.
Eight countries with a population of more than 10 million have experienced population declines over the past decade.
Most are European.
In addition to Ukraine, whose population has fallen sharply as a result of the war with Russia, the other countries in Europe with declining populations – Italy, Portugal, Poland, Romania and Greece – have particularly low birth rates in common, between 1.2 and 1.6 children per woman according to World Bank.
This phenomenon is added to a negative migration rate for Poland, Romania and Greece: there are more emigrations abroad than inflows from abroad.
Outside of Europe, Japan is also experiencing a decline in its aging population due to low fertility (1.3 children per woman) and low immigration. Japan lost more than 3 million people between 2011 and 2021.
Finally, in Syria, the population has been severely affected by the war.
With the exception of Syria, all of these countries will see further population declines, according to UN forecasts.
They should be joined by China, whose decline in 2022, the first in 60 years, will become an ongoing trend. China, now the world’s most populous country, was set to be dethroned by India this year. It is expected to lose nearly half its population by 2100, from more than 1.4 billion to 771 million people.
Other countries will join the movement, such as Russia, which experienced an initial population decline between 1994 and 2008 in the wake of the breakup of the USSR, Germany, South Korea or Spain, countries whose population will start to shrink by 2030, or even Thailand, France, North Korea or Sri Lanka by 2050.
The population of Europe as a whole would begin to shrink as early as this decade.
Many other countries will experience population declines in the second half of the 21st century.
From the 2050s, for example, the populations of Vietnam or Iran are likely to decline, those of India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Turkey or the United Kingdom from the 2060s.
Ultimately, the world’s population is likely to start shrinking from the 2090s, having surpassed 10 billion, according to UN forecasts.
While European, American, and Asian populations should all begin to decline by 2100, Africa’s population will continue to increase.
The African continent would grow from 1.4 to 3.9 billion inhabitants by 2100. Then around 38% of the world’s population would live in Africa, compared to around 18% today.