The war will last a long time and will not end until Russia has conquered Crimea and Donbass. Unless Ukraine would win first, but that’s not a hypothesis contemplated by Dmitri Suslov, Director of the Higher School of Economics at the National Research University and one of the Kremlin’s “think tanks”. Western countries want Putin to lose, Russians will not accept negotiations in the areas where the conflict is now concentrated: the only solution is to continue the open conflict with Odessa, which is ready to be attacked in order to “the Cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea,” the Corriere interviewed.
Why the Russians fight
Suslov explains to the Italian newspaper that there are two main reasons why Putin’s army is in great difficulties: “Russia’s political leadership is hesitating increase the level of troops involved in the war, “to propagate to the Russian people that this is still a special operation and that there is no real war going on, and consequently to pretend nothing happened, to keep scrolling the newspaper when if nothing was wrong “There is no sense of mobilization and if you don’t watch TV you don’t get the impression that we are waging a war in Ukraine. This is seen as very important for preserve political stability and therefore no increase in war effort”.
Why Ukraine resists
Between the lines, Suslov says, as if to say, that the Russians don’t win because they don’t fight at their maximum strength, but the director himself also underscores the capabilities of the Ukrainians, both as weapons and as intelligence, thanks to Western help. The Kremlin believes that sooner or later they will be able to “win with this troop strength, which is much lower than that of Ukraine, even if it has more firepower”. Unlike the colonel and war analyst Khodaryonok He was much more objective when he spoke of a very critical situation in Russia. “This is the dominant narrative in the West,” Suslov told Corriere, saying it was not an “objective picture” because the war the Russians are waging, despite the numerous casualties of soldiers and generals, is not against Ukraine but ” against Russia” -NATO or Russia-USA war”.
“The situation is not as described”
With this clever trick, Suslov says that’s all merit the westerner, “every single Ukrainian rocket or cannon shot” and who wouldn’t know real Conditions of the Ukrainian army, which is said to have suffered enormous casualties, “a third of the population fled their homes, a third of the infrastructure was destroyed, while the economy shrank by 50%. I don’t think Ukraine will win,” he said. Even when the journalist claims that Russia is isolated, the analyst disputes that claim too, saying that “there is no sense of isolation” and that the frictions are within NATO.
What to expect
Suslov then formulates two further hypotheses as to how things should go on: The Kremlin could still end the conflict or continue it indefinitely, but “unfortunately the chance of the first option have been greatly reduced and those of an endless war have greatly increased, “he points out. If Russia manages to get Zelenskyi out of the Black Sea, the situation could stop or last at least a year with less intensity.” . Then there could be a violent resumption of hostilities. “Finally, applause goes to the Italian government, which hopes for peace negotiations,” but unfortunately the UK, Poland, the Baltic countries, together with the Americans, want a war of attrition and the strategic defeat of Russia,” he concludes.