The military point 338 | The tools to strike further and the strategy of reconquest: these are the ideas in today’s notebook dedicated to the conflict in anticipation of the donor summit in Ramstein, Germany
The tools to strike further and the strategy of reconquest: these are the ideas in today’s notebook dedicated to the conflict in anticipation of the donor summit in Ramstein, Germany.
Washington could include Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (Glsdb) in the $2.7 billion package, munitions that can be fired from the Himars at a range of 150 kilometers, nearly double the missiles supplied to the Ukrainians . It is believed that they are very accurate, they give an opportunity to keep under fire a large part of the occupied territory and the northern areas of Crimea. Experts cite some fighter jet and helicopter bases (Dzhankoy and Berdyansk) or logistics hubs, such as the Sokolohirne station, as priority targets. The Russians, already fearing long-range missile launchers, would be forced to move the plane and adjust their attitude. In part, the “sanctuary” would end for the deep rear. The Glsdb represents a middle ground for the White House, which opposes giving Atacms systems a 300-kilometer range but agrees with Zelensky’s goals of attempting to liberate vast areas, including Crimea. And this despite the risk of disagreements with Moscow, which is quick to denounce the escalation. Political reactions hardened by fears about the impact of the equipment. Also included in the pack are the Stryker (100) and Bradley (50) armored fighting vehicles, vehicles that, along with the tanks, need to increase maneuverability.
A confrontation between allies has developed over the latter. Let’s recap. Britain and France have said yes to sending tanks, Poland is ready to surrender its German-made Leopards and says that if there is no quick agreement it will act autonomously, the position of other governments that have the same means. Chancellor Scholz, who has been widely criticized for his constant hesitation, insists that he will only say yes if the Americans also send the Abrams tanks, which the Pentagon has ruled out. Discussions, lobbying, contacts behind the scenes. With a technical side. Tanks are important, but there are also those that highlight the variety of models to handle, the conditions of some specimens (and the times to reactivate them) and their effectiveness in this “theater”. The Leopards used by the Turks in Syria had problems, the Abrams are sophisticated machines, not cheap, with high maintenance requirements. Sweden is more resolute, following a clearly defined approach: Stockholm has confirmed the delivery of Archer self-propelled guns, modern and with a range of more than 30 kilometers, then about fifty armored fighting vehicles and other equipment. Estonia does no less: it provided “heavy” guns, a support vehicle, ammunition. Denmark adds 19 Caesar SPGs (French production), prized by the Resistance for their mobility. Bulgaria is more ambiguous. Officially he has always refused to provide military assistance to the Ukrainians, instead now confirming that he fired a mountain of “shots”, an inevitable consequence of a state that has always played a role in the “gun market”.
The accumulation of equipment – be careful, you always have to distinguish between announcements and deliveries – is aimed at what will happen in the coming weeks, probably in the spring when opponents are ready to unleash offensives. The meeting of US Chief of Staff Mark Milley with the Ukrainian generals in Poland was relevant in this regard. A confidential business meeting, not a solemn handshake. There had been operational contacts even before the maneuvers that enabled Ukraine to liberate Kharkiv and Kherson. Media revelations that emerged after the successes had confirmed the Pentagon’s external role through intelligence agencies, analysis of Russia’s vulnerabilities, study of options and close consultations. While the Americans have complained in the past that they have not received accurate information from Zelenskyy, it is equally true that the Ukrainians depend on Allied support, supplies of ammunition, spare parts and myriad components. Therefore, it is obvious that an operational dialogue is necessary. All the more so as Vladimir Putin is assembling his “divisions” – reservists, mercenaries, industry, generals, propaganda – to continue the special operation at any cost. From London, they do not exclude that it is ready to use the new T14 Armata tanks in Ukraine, since several copies were “sighted” during training at the Kuzminka barracks in southern Russia. The news may be well founded, but so is the British attempt to persuade the undecided to respond appropriately by providing the tanks.
January 19, 2023 (change January 19, 2023 | 19:34)
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