- peter lee
- The conversation*
5 hours before
Credit, Getty Images
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A US drone with a Hellfire missile used against Ayman alZawahiri
The death of alQaeda leader Ayman alZawahiri this month in a CIA drone strike was the latest US response to the September 11, 2001 attacks on the Twin Towers.
Politically, the death has increased distrust between the American leadership and the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
The death also revealed commitments under the 2020 Doha Peace Accords signed by the US and the Taliban.
But another story is emerging, with wider implications: the pace and nature of international arms development.
This is the case, for example, with the weapon that allegedly killed Al Zawahiri: the Hellfire R9X “Ninja” missile.
The Hellfire missile was originally developed in the 1970s and 1980s to destroy Soviet tanks.
Rapid advances in technology beginning in the 1990s resulted in several variations that increased its capabilities.
Missiles can now be fired from Reaper helicopters or drones.
And its multiple explosive charges can be activated in different ways: on impact or before impact.
And then came the “Ninja” version of the Hellfire R9X, which while not new, has remained hidden for the last five years.
This missile was reportedly used in Syria in 2017 to kill alQaeda deputy leader Abu Khayr alMasri.
The Ninja Missile does not rely on an explosive warhead to destroy or kill its target.
It harnesses the speed, accuracy and kinetic energy of a 45kilogram rocket, fired from up to 6 meters high and armed with six blades that deploy in the final moments before impact.
Credit, Getty Images
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A drone carries two grenades
‘Super Weapons’
The Ninja Missile is the ultimate weapon for pinpointing and killing a single person. It creates no explosions, no largescale destruction, and no collateral death.
But the advancement of weapons will also affect the way we live and the way wars are fought or deterred. Russia has invested heavily in these alleged superweapons based on older technologies. Their aim is to reduce or eliminate technological advantages of the USA or NATO (Western military alliance).
Credit, Getty Images
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Russia’s Kinzhal hypersonic missile on a Mikoyan MiG31K fighter during an air parade in Moscow in 2018
Russia’s development goals for hypersonic missiles are very ambitious. The Avangard rocket, for example, does not have to fly outside the Earth’s atmosphere. Instead, it remains in the upper atmosphere, giving it the ability to be maneuvered. This makes it harder to detect or intercept.
China’s DF17 hypersonic ballistic missile also aims to bypass US missile defenses.
Credit, Getty Images
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China’s hypersonic weapon vehicles at a parade in Beijing in 2019
the autonomous age
On a smaller scale, robotic dogs with machine guns are appearing in the gun market.
Weapons development company Sword International took a fourlegged unmanned ground vehicle or robotic dog from Ghost Robotics and put a rifle on it.
This was one of three robotic dogs displayed at a US Army fair.
Meanwhile, Turkey claims to have developed four types of autonomous drones that can identify and kill people.
And all without the involvement of a human operator or GPS guidance.
Credit, TASS
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Hypersonic weapons are made by powers like Russia’s Avangard
According to a March 2021 UN report, such an autonomous weapon system has already been used in Libya against a logistics convoy belonging to the Khalifa Haftar armed group.
Autonomous weapons that do not require GPS guidance are particularly important.
If there is a war between the world’s major powers, the satellites that provide GPS navigation could be overturned.
Therefore, any military system or aircraft that relied on GPS signals for navigation or targeting would be ineffective.
China, Russia, India and the US have developed weapons to destroy satellites that provide global positioning for car satellite navigation systems and civilian aircraft guidance.
The real nightmare is the combination of these and many other weapon systems with artificial intelligence.
Credit, US Air Force
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The US introduced this hypersonic cruise missile, the Boeing X51, in 2010
new rules of war
Are new laws or treaties needed to restrict these futuristic weapons? In short, yes, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
The US has called for a global deal to halt antisatellite missile testing, but there has been no endorsement from the international community.
The closest thing to an agreement came when NASA (US Space Agency) signed the Artemis Convention, which contains principles to promote the peaceful uses of space exploration.
However, these agreements apply only to “civil space activities carried out by civil space agencies” of the signatory states.
In other words, the agreement does not extend to military space activities or ground battlefields.
Credit, Getty Images
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Robot dogs can carry weapons in their bodies
And the US withdrew from the IntermediateRange Nuclear Forces Treaty. This is part of a longterm pattern of US governments wanting to back out of international deals.
Lethal autonomous weapon systems are a special class of emerging weapon systems. They integrate machine learning and other types of artificial intelligence so they can make their own decisions and act without direct human intervention.
Credit, Getty Images
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The Hellfire missile on a US Air Forces aircraft
In 2014, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) brought together experts to identify the problems of autonomous weapon systems.
In 2020, the ICRC and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute went a step further, bringing together international experts to identify what controls would be needed for autonomous weapon systems.
In 2022, discussions between the countries that the UN first brought together in 2017 will continue. This group of government experts continues to discuss the development and deployment of lethal autonomous weapons systems.
However, there is still no international agreement on a new law or treaty to restrict its use.
autonomous weapon systems
The activist group Stop the Killer Robots has been calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapon systems ever since.
But not only has that not happened, now there is an undeclared deadlock in discussions at the UN headquarters in Geneva on autonomous weapons.
Credit, Getty Images
Australia, Israel, Russia, South Korea and the US have all opposed a new treaty or political declaration.
In the same negotiations, 125 nonaligned states are demanding legally binding restrictions on lethal autonomous weapons systems.
With Russia, China, the US, Britain and France all having vetoes in the UN Security Council, there are a number of countries that could block the passage of a binding autonomous weapons law.
Alongside these international talks and activist organizations, independent experts are proposing alternatives.
For example, in 2019, ethicist DeanePeter Baker brought together the Canberra Group of independent international organizations.
Credit, Getty Images
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A US Army Apache helicopter
The group produced a report outlining principles guiding the development and deployment of lethal autonomous weapon systems. These principles do not solve the political impasse between the superpowers.
But if autonomous weapons are here to stay, this is an early attempt to understand what new rules are needed.
When the mythical Pandora’s Box was opened, unspeakable terrors were unleashed upon the world. New weapon systems are very real.
Like Pandora, we have only hope.
*Peter Lee is Professor of Applied Ethics and Director of Safety and Risk Research at the University of Portsmouth, UK.
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