The PSOE would win the general election if it were held today, by a margin of 2.3 points over the PP, according to the February Sociological Research Center (CIS) Election Barometer. The survey came amid a crisis of reduced sentences for sex offenders following the enactment of the “Only yes is yes” law. Those of Pedro Sánchez widen the gap to those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, although the popular ones increase by more than one point in the vote estimate. The organization’s poll, led by José Félix Tezanos, shows a stagnation of votes for Vox (repeat 10%), while United We Can falls by 1.5 points compared to January. Ciudadanos, on the other hand, loses almost a point, meaning they lose a third of the support they had in the previous barometer. Sánchez and Feijóo are tied in the citizen rating (both fail with a score of 4.34 out of 10). In this field, Yolanda Díaz continues to excel (with a 4.91 scratching the pass).
The poll reflects some stability in left and right blocs, with the PSOE and PP on the rise in their respective sectors. The Socialists would get 32.1% of the vote across Spain, compared to 29.8% that the mainstream parties would get. Unidas Podemos comes third with 12.7%, followed by Vox, which has remained around 10% since November. Ciudadanos is struggling not to fall below the 2% the barometer gives it this month (compared to the previous 2.9%). Of the vote estimate polls released in recent weeks, the CIS is the only one to give the PSOE a victory over the PP. In the barometer presented this Friday, however, the PP is 0.6 points ahead of the PSOE in terms of direct voting intentions, which was already the case in the January survey.
After them, it is sixth in estimated votes against the Spanish ERC (2%), followed by EH Bildu, Junts (1.1%), PNV (0.8%), Más País (0.7%), BNG and Compromís , both at 0.6%, and NA+ and CUP, both at 0.5%.
The 3,935 interviews with citizens for this survey were conducted between February 1 and 11, amid a dispute between Social Democrats and Podemos, government partners, over the ongoing sentence cuts for sex offenders as a result of the Comprehensive Guarantees of Sexual Freedom Act, the so-called Yes -is-yes law, as well as in full controversy over the positions of Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP on abortion in Spain.
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According to the poll, citizens prefer Pedro Sánchez as Prime Minister over his popular opponent, in line with the confidence both inspire in Spaniards: the PSOE leader inspires little or no confidence in the 67.6%, while the PP leader beats the same with 69.2%. The third preferred person to arrive at La Moncloa is Yolanda Díaz.
No political leader exceeds 5 on a rating scale of 1 to 10. Yolanda Díaz, who remains the most respected, was the last to achieve at least that score, but that was last May. Since then it has stayed at 4.91 in June and this February. At the bottom is Santiago Abascal, President of Vox, with a score of 2.72, again lower than the previous two barometers. The highest record of the last 12 months was reached in April with 3.16.
Sanchez also falls to 4.34 and the rest of the CIS-rated leaders improve their score slightly compared to January. But that 4.34 is the same score Feijóo gets, which is up from the last poll. The leaders of the PSOE and PP have received a similar grade since September, but the popular has lost ground, with small gains, since his debut as PP president in April last year, when he scored a 5.2. 1.72 points more than the score achieved by his predecessor Pablo Casado a month earlier.
However, one of the most significant changes in the January and February surveys is how health has firmly established itself at the top of citizens’ concerns, with 23.4% of citizens already listing it as one of their top three issues that affect them most personally . The health system situation is only seen as a problem, albeit by a distance, for fear of the impact of the economic crisis triggered by the Corona pandemic and the war that Russia has waged on Ukraine, which 42.6% of the participants mention. That’s one point up from the previous barometer.
The CIS Barometer for January gave the victory to the PSOE, 1.7 points ahead of the PP. The poll showed a general drop in vote expectations for all parties except Unidas Podemos, the only one to grow, reaching an estimated 14.4% support, down two points from December. Vox fell again until it remained empty at 10%, while Más País fell four-tenths (0.9%). Ciudadanos remains on the vague line of entering Congress or not.
United We Can, the party most committed to women’s rights
According to those surveyed, United We Can is the party that does the most “for equal rights and equal opportunities for women”, while Vox does the least. The Center for Sociological Research included a series of questions in the February Barometer questionnaire related to 8-M, International Women’s Day and the fight for true equality. 32% believe that the formation led by Ione Belarra is the most committed to women’s rights, followed by the PSOE, which remains at 18.1%. On the contrary, 52.8% believe that those from Santiago Abascal are the ones who contribute the least. The PP remains in no man’s land, with 4.6% saying it faces the 4% who believe it is doing little.
Either way, the fight looks long. 70.6% believe there is still much or enough to achieve full equality between men and women and only 13% believe “equality already exists”. The vast majority of Spaniards (92.8%) see gender-based violence as “a worrying problem in Spanish society”, but only when specifically asked about it. When asked broadly about the issues that most affect Spaniards personally, violence against women ranks 27th.
There is general agreement that current laws are not enough to tackle gender-based violence, with 89.7% agreeing that more things should be done, including better childhood equality education, stricter and fourth place “that change and improve the current yes-is-yes law”.
When specifically asked if they think the March 8 demonstration to mark International Women’s Day will be of any use, the division falls flat: 46.1% think it will be of great or sufficient benefit to support the demands for freedoms and liberties strengthen women’s rights, compared to 48.9% who see it serving little or no purpose at all.