The new war in the Tsars backyard

The new war in the Tsar’s backyard

Lachin (Azerbaijan) – “Stop polluting, let’s save nature, let’s save ourselves”. The Azerbaijani ecologists, a total of about two hundred people, who take turns every eight hours and chant their slogans loudly. They have been demonstrating on Lachin Street for over thirty days and Armenia accuses them of blocking them for political reasons. Here everyone returns the allegations to the sender and prefers to focus mainly on the environment: “For decades, the Armenian occupiers have plundered this country and polluted the environment. They keep going and now it’s time to say enough,” says one protester. But not only.

At the root of the demonstrations, Azerbaijani sources reiterate a variety of factors from the start: the road appears to have been used illegally, already after the signing of the 2020 Tripartite Declaration, for illicit trade in arms, mines (major problem still today for the normalization of the territory), minerals – gold and copper – stolen from the Azerbaijani mines. And there is still talk of illegal movements of foreigners, mainly from Iran, along this route. However, another protester admits that the environment is certainly important in this matter, but that there is something else: “We will not leave here until the Russians and Armenians do too, and we will finally take control of our country to have”.

The men of the Azerbaijani special forces line up behind a fence around the demonstrators, mostly very young and students. Automatic shoulder weapon and service dagger on belt, locals see them as heroes. It was they, say the citizens of Shusha, who liberated the city in the last war, the second between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020. “For years,” they say, “our soldiers have trained to be the best at moving in the mountains and wearing the best yet lightest military gear.” Official Azerbaijani sources, who prefer to remain anonymous, say that the capture of the city by Azerbaijani special forces has become a case study for both the United States and Singapore and that an agreement has recently been signed between our Defense Ministry and the Azerbaijani one .

In the background of the demonstrations are armored vehicles and Russian soldiers, who – as is now common after the start of the war with Ukraine on February 24, 2021 – can be recognized not only by the flag, but also by the conspicuous white color. Z” on a black background on the arm. Journalists can’t reach them. They don’t seem to care much about what’s happening around them: there are those who are chatting, those who are reading a book, and finally those who are completely engrossed in their mobile phones, probably on a social network. Moscow’s soldiers are “surrounding” the Lachin demonstrators, guaranteeing, at least on paper, the safety of the area. Roughly every forty minutes, Russian vehicles can be seen crossing the street and the young people ( but also some babushkas are among them) who form the ecological demonstration procession and let them pass.There is therefore no question of a blockade, nor of a humanitarian catastrophe, Russian vehicles pass, as do ambulances, humanitarian aid and funds from the International Red Cross.

Armenia, which until recently had solid relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, has recently accused Moscow of no longer being able to guarantee peace in Karabakh. It is difficult to say whether this is really the case. What is certain is that Putin is now embroiled in the long-running Ukraine conflict and finds himself in the grip of Western sanctions. “Under the Soviet Union there were three Russian military bases in Azerbaijan,” a government source tells us, “now there are only soldiers in Karabakh.” What is perceived is that what was the backyard of the Soviet Union is being reorganized and trying to have a more balanced relationship with Moscow, which on the one hand supports Armenia militarily and on the other hand does business with Azerbaijan. Armenians fear another war worse than 2020 could fall on their heads.

The tension about what happens in Lachin is great. And a small spark is enough to start a big fire. “I’m sure something will change,” says an Azerbaijani source, “next spring or summer.”