SONDAGE Quebec 2022 a real struggle for official opposition

The CAQ is slowing its descent

Despite a difficult campaign, the CAQ has slowed its descent and could even win new seats tomorrow. However, with the PQ’s confirmed rise, three-sided battles are blurring the picture of the electoral map in both Montreal and Quebec.

• Also read: Quebec 2022 | Campaign Diary: Week 5

• Also read: Quebec 2022: consult our voter’s guide

Since François Legault began criss-crossing Quebec to meet voters, the CAQ in voting intentions has fallen 4%.

Voting intentions of the provinces

38% of Quebecers would choose Legault’s CAQ.

If there were state elections today, which party would you vote for?

From October 1, 2022

Other party: 1%

Conversely, once the campaign started, the PQ received 6% of the intentions.

The other three parties are even for the status quo: in the end, despite their efforts to seduce voters, their values ​​have not changed.

However, the CAQ leader appears to have managed to stabilize its support this week with a slight 1% gain, according to the latest Léger poll ahead of tomorrow’s elections.

The same does not apply to QS, which loses two points in a few days.

Despite a similar result to 2018 (the party had won 37.4%), the CAQ was able to win more seats this year due to the split vote.

“What’s quite ironic is that the wrong campaign can lead to better results than last time,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger.

“One on one wouldn’t have been the same,” he adds of the duels of the past.

controversial statements

The Léger polaroid also shows that this week’s controversial immigration remarks didn’t hurt CAQ troops.

“It didn’t hurt, but it spurred on the Quebec Liberal Party,” which won a point, Mr. Léger pointed out.

Furthermore, 25% of CAQ voters had already voted before the words of Mr Legault and Jean Boulet.

However, the presence of five parties this year is shattering the results in several constituencies where three-way battles are looming.

“In each of the regions there are two or three districts where things get tight,” observes Jean-Marc Léger. Fourteen seats are hotly contested in the Montreal region, five in Quebec and Chaudière-Appalaches, he estimates.

“Usually before election night begins, we know who’s going to win in those counties,” he said, highlighting the uncertainty hanging over this time.

development of voting intentions

From October 1, 2022

The rise of the PQ also adds some excitement to tomorrow night in Greater Quebec City. The PQ reaps 19% of voting intentions there, level with QS and the PCQ, which loses 4% support there.

This is largely thanks to the good performance of PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who ran the best campaign according to 31% of respondents.

Best Campaign

Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon comes first.

Which of the leaders has had the best campaign so far?

From October 1, 2022

1653631576 234 Leger poll CAQ regains lost ground Duhaime threat mounts


Paul Saint Pierre

1653631575 152 Leger poll CAQ regains lost ground Duhaime threat mounts


Nadeau Dubois

1653631575 397 Leger poll CAQ regains lost ground Duhaime threat mounts



1653631575 785 Leger poll CAQ regains lost ground Duhaime threat mounts



1653631576 566 Leger poll CAQ regains lost ground Duhaime threat mounts



Don’t know / rejection: 20%

watch tomorrow night

Tomorrow night we must also watch the fate of chefs Dominique Anglade, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Éric Duhaime, whose victory in their own countries is uncertain.

“It’s going to be the element we’ll be watching all evening. Things are getting tight in the three districts,” explained Jean-Marc Léger.

Anyone using data from this opinion poll should acknowledge that it is a casualThe newspaper-TVA QUB.

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