This time, the visit of an American delegation to Taiwan was treated more subtly. After Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, five more members of the US Congress have already visited Taiwan. But while the entire world was virtually live during Pelosi’s trip, this time there were no major warnings. Taiwan President Tsai-Ing-wen’s office also refrained from publishing any photos during the visit. Conversations with the delegation led by Democratic Senator Ed Markey were not reported until later. It was obviously about island security and bilateral trade relations.
Despite this reluctance, China reacted angrily that a high-ranking US delegation, which considers the People’s Republic to be breakaway territory, was once again visiting the island. In response, China resumed military maneuvers near the island. The Chinese military will continue to “prepare for war and take decisive action against any form of separatist ‘Taiwan independence’ and foreign interference,” the Defense Ministry announced in Beijing.
The US visits are even more explosive because they took place just before the Chinese Communist Party (CP) congress scheduled for the fall. This is where head of state and party leader Xi Jinping wants to be waved to a third term. In doing so, he breaks with decades of practice – after Mao Zedong’s excesses of power, the CP limited the presidency to two terms.
Xi Jinping shows the utmost determination on the Taiwan issue.
– © Portal/Pool/Selim Chtayti
However, Xi has linked China’s resurrection as a world power very closely to his person in the propaganda. This is one of the most important arguments for breaking the term limit – and this is probably one of the reasons why he now wants to show intransigence on the Taiwan issue. But not only that: there are good reasons to assume that Xi wants to go to extremes and actually incorporate Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.
No turning back
The two journalists Stefan Aust and Adrian Geiges report in their book “Xi Jinping. The Most Powerful Man in the World” that the artist Ai Weiwei – who comes from a family that was once closely linked to the nomenklatura party – learned from his contacts in Beijing that this Xi is seeking another term precisely because he wants to be the one to resolve the Taiwan issue. Healing the CP wound of the Chinese civil war—nationalists defeated by the Communists fled to Taiwan—would be the culmination of his mission.
Furthermore, he has already taken on the Taiwan issue with such a nationalistic charge that there is hardly any turning back for him. Political scientists also point out that the CP should be taken seriously when it emphasizes its willingness to militarily resolve the Taiwan issue. The fact that an overwhelming majority in Taiwan does not want to join the dictatorship is irrelevant in Beijing.
Escalation possible at any time
The US is apparently trying to hammer the pins against China. The fact that they are expanding their trade relations with Taiwan is a clear sign. In addition, Washington plans to cross the Taiwan Strait, that is, the strait between Taiwan and the People’s Republic, with ships and planes in “the coming weeks”. This military presence is intended to show Beijing once again that the US reserves the right to provide military assistance to Taiwan even without an official guarantee of assistance.
According to media reports, Xi now wants to meet in person with US President Joe Biden. However, a rapprochement is unlikely to be achieved on the Taiwan issue. At the moment, only the US military and economic deterrent potential appears to be holding the People’s Republic back from going to extremes. But that doesn’t change the fact that this conflict can escalate at any time.