The recent NBA draft lottery gave the Portland Trail Blazers their third overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft, a huge advantage as they pursue their stated goal of building an immediate competitor around franchise superstar Damian Lillard. Unlike the first overall pick – the yielding generational center Victor Wembanyama – the third pick is not a “set-it-and-forget-it” perspective. Portland now has a compass and some snacks, but they’re not out of the woods like they would have been on a Wemby Air first-class flight.
As soon as the draft arrangement broke, questions like these began to flood the Blazer’s Edge mailbag:
Dave,
I think the Blazers should keep the No. 3. I’m curious if you’re okay with that, but since they probably won’t, I’m also curious what kind of player they might get for it. Who is realistic? I’m curious about specific goals, but at least what kind of player. superstar? Star safe right?
winnie
Oddly enough, Winnie, the entire internet is on fire, and various fan bases are taking on Portland’s in an attempt to determine the value of this choice. It’s like a crowdsourced episode of Pawn Stars.
Opposing Fans: This is number 3. Authentic NBA. What do you want for that?
Blazers fans: I was thinking about your best player.
Opposing Fans: I have to resell this, you know? I can give you Shecky Gruberman and a second round player.
Blazers fans: But my dear old grandma brought this pick over the Oregon Trail and it’s been in my family for generations! Can’t you at least do a 3 and D wing?
Opposing fans: No. If it was the first choice, everyone would want it. But it’s the third. I have six of these in the back room. I’ll give you Gruberman and two seconds for it.
I can’t even give you all the names that media, co-authors and fans have exchanged. I think we’ll go over some of these in detail next week. Suffice to say they range from outrageous to offensive and everything in between.
The funniest moments happen when both sides are upset.
Sixers fan: Anfernee Simons and third choice for Joel Embiid? What did you smoke?!? He’s the MVP!
Blazers Fan: There’s no way I’m trading Simons and #3 for Embiid! Have you seen his injury history and playoff stats???
In the face of this stormy environment, let’s patrol the breeze with this handy guide on the types of players the Blazers could be aiming for…
The real star
It’s all but guaranteed that the Blazers will be looking to get a certified, minted star with their pick. Thirds in the overall standings don’t happen often. A nice top of draft class makes this book valuable.
With this pick, Portland will forgo the long game and speculative high caps. They won’t put it off if they ask for more of the same in return. Instead, they want proven performance.
Ideally that would come from a player like Embiid, Jaylen Brown or depending on your view Pascal Siakam. Of this trio, Siakam is the only realistic target. I mention the others because they illustrate the key feature at this level: you know what just happened as soon as the trade is made. There are no questions or doubts. The move justifies itself. Everyone in Portland will proclaim it with the same two words, the first is “sacred” and the second is unprintable.
Adjectives describing this level of a player: big stats, big impact, veteran status, in or nearing his prime.
The costs associated with acquiring such a player are incredibly high. The third pick alone is not enough. At this level, expect to trade future picks, young players, and the kitchen sink to face a single man from queen.
The bridge player
The problem with these real stars is that they’re hard to come by, even in exchange for high draft picks.
If they fail to win a franchise switcher outright, Portland could opt for a “bridge” player. Bridge targets are younger, maybe not yet Megastars (or ever), but still potential All-Stars with demonstrable skills.
Mikal Bridges is the archetypal example. Some people think of the Philadelphia 76ers’ Tyrese Maxey as that type of player. (Though one in Portland probably won’t be suitable.) DeAndre Ayton could also qualify, as could OG Anunoby.
The downside is that these players may not become the Blazers’ automatic competitors. The advantage is that they are useful even when they are not.
If the current plan didn’t work and the Blazers had to rebuild, Bridges, Maxey, Ayton and the like would serve just as well for a young team as for an experienced one. The Blazers sacrifice instant MVP-level impact for additional outs, attracting big talent without committing to a limited-time future.
This is not dissimilar to how Portland has handled previous negotiations and deals with free agents. The level of impact and asset risk is now much higher, but the idea is the same: be smart, stay somewhere in the middle, keep your flexibility to make further improvements.
Adjectives that describe this type of player: young, talented, promising, but not necessarily tasked with carrying the team on their shoulders.
The costs for this type of player vary. If it were ever available, bridges would be almost as expensive as your first-line stars above. The Nets eventually traded Kevin Durant for him. However, he is the upper class here. Most bridge players should get some benefit from the pick, plus maybe an additional benefit or two (young player? protected future pick?) without having to completely empty the closet.
The aging veteran
The last category includes the guys who were ex-superstars and bridge players who have fuel in the tank but are aging out of their roles quickly. Jimmy Butler is the most obvious example, followed by Draymond Green. There is no need to ask who these players are or what they do. One wonders how long they can keep it up.
Such a veteran would give the team an instant boost, but at the expense of durability. The Blazers wouldn’t just be in win or nothing mode. It would be “WIN NOW or nothing”.
On the plus side, the grizzled veteran would combine the cost savings of the bridge player with the proven impact of the star.
Should the market for the election prove sparser than hoped, Portland may have to consider such a compromise. However, they would have to make sure they were getting the best of the best aging veterans. With Butler leading Miami to the Eastern Conference Finals and Green being…well…Green, that might be harder than it looks.
The secret sauce plan
If Portland can’t get a self-evident Superstar, one unlikely possibility could see them claiming multiple bases: getting two from the other categories. If the Blazers could take advantage of a very, very good player with the pick plus paycheck (a true lower-level star or a higher-level bridge player), they would find a bridge player or grizzled veteran to fall out of favor is and could be bought without If you decide to make a pick, the influx of talent and position coverage could cover the cost. Players like Ayton, Green or even Siakam, whose contractual or interpersonal relationships with their teams are uncertain, are likely candidates.
No doubt the blazers would much rather get the big big star with their needle threading. But if the eye of this needle is not open, this needle would be a reasonable alternative.
A big problem
The Blazers appear to have all the tools needed to pull off a big trade or two: young players, future picks (shake hands with the Chicago Bulls, who still owe them a future first-rounder), and that valuable #3 selection.
But NBA trades still have to follow rules. The Blazers will cap this summer as they can only earn capped salaries in excess of what they’re dishing out. The Blazers also lack available contracts to accommodate large trades. Any business they conduct must be within narrow limits.
Damian Lillard will make $45.6 million next year. Since this type of trade is about keeping him, his salary doesn’t count for the purposes of this discussion.
After Lillard, Portland’s top trade candidates are Anfernee Simons at $24.1 million and Jusuf Nurkic at $16.9 million. Those are the salary weights the Blazers can throw around when negotiating legal deals. These are also two of their five starters.
At least one of the Simons-Nurkic duo must depart along with the third choice on any significant swap. This results in the Blazers giving up a high level of overall talent (Simons and No. 3) or positional talent (their only true center and No. 3) for the new player. Your trade target must be tremendously gifted – or a center – to justify either choice.
After Simons and Nurkic, Portland’s contracts for Shaedon Sharpe and Nassir Little drop to the $6 million range. Certainly there could be little contract baggage, but the entire Blazers nation would pale in comparison if Sharpe were involved in a trade primarily for salary reasons.
Sign-and-trades are rarer in the NBA than they used to be, but that’s another reason why signing Jerami Grant is important for Portland. Even if they couldn’t transfer him immediately six months later (or had no intention of doing so), his contract could be a crucial lever if they can’t strike a deal now or need a second deal to complete their revamped squad . Grant’s estimated $30 million contract, age, and production level all place him in the potentially tradable category, especially when Portland’s trading partner is eyeing the incredibly cheap Sharpe rather than Simon’s. (Or, of course, if the Blazers prefer to trade Sharpe for Ant.) Grant’s inclusion could spare them other compensation as well. It’s not a likely alternative, but it’s something to keep in mind.
Diploma
Of course, we haven’t covered every player in this post, but if a player doesn’t fall into one of these three categories, there’s a good chance Portland doesn’t have third place overall for them anyway.
Personally, I think the Blazers will have a hard time getting a superstar north of Siakam with the third pick and what they have to offer, unless Jaylen Brown goes into full rebellion mode in Boston. You can definitely shop among the available Bridge players, although my gut says Bridges is out of reach even for them.
A grizzled veteran or two will be there, but if Portland goes down that route, they’ll have to ask themselves if they can get this player without using the pick. Then they used the lottery decision for a second puff and came back with a whole new outlook on life.
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