We are at 331 days of Russian aggression against Ukraine. It takes a long time when you are under the bombs. The famous “massive sanctions” against Vladimir Putin’s regime are also taking a long time to show results. What’s the use?
In the time to say this, almost 11 months ago, Western countries have organized and started providing military, humanitarian and financial aid to Russia-invaded Ukraine, which now exceeds $50 billion.
Yesterday, the United States announced a new shipment of armaments and military equipment, including 100 Stryker combat vehicles, totaling $2.5 billion. As Republican Senator Everett Dirksen said, “A billion here, a billion there, and soon you’re talking real money!”
VLADIMIR THE FRONDEUR
The Russians, for their part, are not giving up either. Also this week Vladimir Putin – after 11 months of fighting and tens of thousands dead in his camp as in the other – reiterated that Russia’s victory is assured.
The Russian economy is doing well, he boasted. The country’s GDP fell 2.1% between January and November, a far cry from the 10, 15, 20% drop economists had predicted.
First, two things: either one has to be wary of the “official” Russian numbers, or the sanctions announced with great fanfare by Western capitals in the spring ended in vain last summer.
IN SAINT-PETERSBURG “BUSINESS AS USUAL”
Alexander Titov, Professor of European History at Queens University Belfast, described his recent visit to St Petersburg in an article for online publication The Conversation last week.
Banks, he remarked, operated normally; Wages and pensions are paid on time; E-commerce is booming and stores are full of groceries and consumer goods.
Despite sanctions on his gas and oil industries, Putin has maintained his energy exports and sold his oil at a discount. For example, India, the world’s third-biggest importer of crude oil, bought 33 times more oil from Russia in 2022 than the year before.
AND THESE DRACONIC SANCTIONS?
So a failure, these sanctions that Western countries, including Canada, have imposed on Russia? Apparently not! The Washington Post reported late last year that Russia’s Treasury Ministry itself acknowledged that tax revenues — outside of the oil and gas sector — fell 20% year-on-year; Retail sales would have fallen 10%.
Also, let’s not forget that the aim of these sanctions was to break up the Russian war effort in Ukraine. In this regard, the supply of sophisticated military equipment would have become so difficult that the ability to launch a new ground offensive or create new missiles would be severely limited.
It’s all just a matter of perseverance, of determination to uphold these sanctions. The bravery of the Ukrainians on the battlefield arouses our admiration; it’s about being up to the occasion.
Ukraine, at the top US military aid
US aid to Ukraine in 2022 compared to top recipients in 2020
Ukraine: $22.9 billion
Israel : $3.3 billion
Afghanistan : $2.8 billion
Egypt : $1.3 billion
Iraq : 548 million dollars
Sources: CFR; The United States Agency for International Development; Ukraine Support Tracker, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
US AID TO UKRAINE, AHEAD OF ALL OTHERS
Bilateral aid from November 20, 2022
- United States : $48 billion
- European Union : $30 billion
- United Kingdom : $7.1 billion
- Germany : $5.5 billion
- Canada : $3.8 billion
Source: Ukraine Support Tracker, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Billions and billions of help
Aid to Ukraine between January and November 2022
- Humanitarian aid : $9.9 billion (21%) emergency food relief; healthcare ; refugee aid etc.
- Financial help : $15.1 billion (31%) budget support through the European Support Fund and other loans.
- military aid : 22.9 billion% (48%)
- security help : $8.9 billion (18.5%) Military training; Gear ; logistic support etc.
- armament and equipment : $12.7 billion (26.5%) armaments and military equipment.
- Grants and loans for weapons and equipment : $1.3 billion (3%)
