Jerusalem CNN —
Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to storm his way back to power, with partial election results suggesting he and his allies have won a clear majority of seats in the Knesset.
Among those allies is the far-right Religious Zionism/Jewish Power bloc, which appears to have more than doubled its seats – and could make the next government the most far-right in Israel’s history.
The other two likely Netanyahu coalition partners are the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism and the religious Sephardi party Shas, both of which have long histories of government. Both have traditionally sought support for their own communities and worked to retain control of Israel’s religious establishment.
But this would be the first time that the leaders of the religious Zionist/Jewish power could have control of government ministries.
The leaders of religious Zionism/Jewish power get much of their support from the settler movement – Jews who live primarily in the West Bank and believe that Jews should control the occupied territories.
Having them in positions of power, like the Ministry of Defense or the Ministry of Public Security, could make Israeli-Palestinian relations even worse than they are now.
Journalist Anshel Pfeffer, who wrote a biography of Netanyahu, suggested ahead of the vote that bringing religious Zionism/Jewish power into government could mean expanding settlements, which are considered illegal under international law.
But that could be their price for joining Netanyahu’s coalition, he said.
“Maybe some West Bank settlements that were abandoned by Israel in the past will be rebuilt, reoccupied?” said Pfeffer. “And maybe further steps towards some kind of annexation in the West Bank?”
The party leaders are settlers themselves: Itamar Ben Gvir, convicted of inciting anti-Arab racism and supporting terrorism; and Bezalel Smotrich, who once told Arab members of Israel’s parliament that they were “here by mistake because [Israel’s first prime minister David] Ben Gurion didn’t finish the job and kicked you out in 1948.”
It was then that Israel became a state and many Palestinian families fled or were evicted from their homes in the land that became Israel.
Ben Gvir was seen pulling a gun during stone-throwing clashes in the East Jerusalem hotspot in Sheikh Jarrah last month, telling Israeli police to shoot Arabs if they throw stones.
He opened a so-called “office” — actually a small tent — on bushland in Sheikh Jarrah last year to assert the Jewish presence in the East Jerusalem neighborhood. This is the flash point where attempted evictions of Palestinian families by Jewish groups claiming the land have become outcry and symbols for the Palestinian cause.
Clashes there shortly after he set up the tent were one of the triggers for last year’s 11-day war between Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip and Israeli forces.
Ben Gvir, a lawyer by training, has taken settlers’ cases all the way to Israel’s Supreme Court.
His ally Bezalel Smotrich can be just as combative.
For example, he argued that people shouldn’t hide it when they hate someone.
“The most natural instinct, the most normal instinct of a normal man who loves those who love him and hates those who hate him, is not to turn the other cheek,” he said, defending a law he helped support to deny entry Israel to supporters of Israel boycotted.
When Smotrich talks about men who love men who love them, he doesn’t mean it in a sexual sense.
Smotrich described himself as a “proud homophobe” and as a young man helped organize an anti-Pride parade event called the Beast Parade, which compared homosexuality to bestiality.
He later told Israeli newspaper Haaretz through a spokesman that he regretted doing so.
But as late as September he said LGBTQ people deserved no more “recognition” than people who broke traffic rules.
“I want to run a red light and I want recognition,” he joked on an Israeli talk show, Haaretz reported.
Smotrich proposes drastic changes to Israel’s legal system and code, including removing the state’s power to charge an official with fraud and breach of trust.
Netanyahu faces precisely this allegation in an ongoing corruption trial
Asked about Smotrich’s suggestion by CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, Netanyahu disagreed, saying, “I wouldn’t do anything that affects me.” I think my process is unraveling the way it is.”
Current projections show Netanyahu’s Likud party will be the largest in the likely coalition, likely at around 32 seats, and the man Israelis call “Bibi” says that means he will be in the driver’s seat.
He told Zakaria last month that even if he worked with extremist parties, they would not engage in politics.
“I’ve had partners like this in the past and they haven’t changed an iota of my policies. I decide politics with my party, which is by far the largest party in the country. And we are a centre-right party and a responsible party, but we will not adopt norms for government that we disagree with,” Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu has not yet made it back to the prime minister’s office, although the signs are looking very good for him.
Votes are still being counted and the result is not final until all have been counted. At this point, election officials can allocate seats to any party that has received more than 3.25% of the national vote.
Then President Isaac Herzog will give the mandate to form a government to the politician he believes is best placed to form a coalition.
That process has been an ordeal in the four elections since April 2019 that preceded this one. But if the latest projections are correct, Netanyahu should have a clear path to majority rule — and the power to swing Israel significantly to the right.