Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva delivers a speech at the launch of his campaign for October’s presidential elections in Brazil, May 7, 2022. Photo: AFP.
Since 2018, leaders from the left of the political spectrum have secured the presidencies of countries such as Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, Chile and Colombia.
There are expectations about how much October’s election could change the regional context in Brazil, where former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a major advantage over Jair Bolsonaro in voter intent polls.
A Lula victory would leave Latin America’s seven most populous nations and its six largest economies in the hands of the left, the Western press says.
Many analysts believe that this is a new situation in which the left seems to be reemerging in Latin America. What is the reason for this generation of leftist governments in the region? Why this resurgence in Latin American politics?
About the topic Cuba debate spoke to the Center for International Policy Research (CIPI) specialist and coordinator for Latin America and the Caribbean, Claudia Marín Suárez.
How do you assess the Latin American and Caribbean context?
“We are facing another moment where a group of governments has come together representing sectors of a fairly broad political spectrum, ranging between the centre, centre-left and left, but in some cases even aligning with the moderate right articulate sectors to reach the government.
“They share a common intention to encourage changes in the policies of the right-wing governments that have dominated the regional political landscape in recent years, but there is a wide variety of positions within them.
“Nevertheless, I believe that the change in the region’s political map is not an insignificant fact for the countries in which it took place or for the region as a whole.
“At the national level, in most cases it is claiming rights that have been violated by neoliberal governments, even if not everyone is able to fully restore these rights in terms of the guarantees that the state can offer for access to services Conditions.
“In countries like Colombia, the mere fact that a representative from sectors other than the conservative right manages to reach the government is in itself a transcendental change, even if not expected by the new government, at least in principle will, politics radicals.
“A possible victory for Lula in the presidential elections in Brazil, with the foreseeable limitations that his management might have, would mean a significant change given the weight and importance that Brazil has in the balance of power at the regional level.
“Obviously, at the regional level, this new moment can create a better environment for cooperation, dialogue and civilized handling of political differences without them disappearing.
“Hopefully, the new political framework can be used to create synergies and spaces for regional autonomy, which will help to strengthen endogenous development capacities and, above all, to manage the asymmetric relationship with the region’s strategic partners. That would be a desirable scenario.”
Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez in Bogotá, May 29, 2022. Photo: Portal
What are currently the biggest challenges for the countries in the region?
—The challenges are diverse and in several dimensions.
“In the political sphere, one of the main challenges for the new governments will be to implement their programs while managing the diversity of political positions and therefore the limits imposed by concerted alliances and, in many cases, pressure from the legislature and judiciary, which they do not to accompany.
“Add to this the attrition and limitations imposed by the economic situation, particularly inflationary pressures and inequalities that existed before but have deepened with the pandemic and conflict in Ukraine.
“Reclaiming spaces of autonomy with very high levels of debt and with pre-established security ties will not be easy; both factors are used by the United States and its allies as elements of political pressure, particularly to curb ties with their strategic rivals.”
How do the regional integration processes work in this scenario?
—Regional integration is going through a difficult period, which has been manifested in recent years, which I think has several reasons: the political polarization of the previous phase, which in this new context should rather be put into perspective; the inability of the integration programs to achieve the proposed objectives and to create productive synergies that foster dependency relationships; and a greater interest – reflected in countries’ international integration strategies – in relating to global markets than to those of their neighbours.
“However, the new scenario offers more favorable conditions, not without encountering strong internal and external resistance, to generate certain regional synergies of autonomy.
“Recent rapprochements between countries with important lithium reserves such as Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia could be a relevant first step in this direction.
“In my opinion, the greatest potential lies in the area of cooperation and regional political dialogue. The revival of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) both in the area of political dialogue and cooperation on sectoral issues of interest to Latin American and Caribbean countries is a good sign that should be strengthened. In this sense, it is fair to highlight the role played by the pro-tempore presidencies of Mexico and now Argentina.
“Recent signs that PetroCaribe energy cooperation is beginning to revive are also good news, particularly given the urgency of Caribbean countries to access energy sources on more favorable financial terms than those dictated by the market and international financial institutions.”
How would you describe the relationship between Latin American and Caribbean countries and the United States today?
—Latin America and the Caribbean, like other regions of the world, are the arena of the struggle for world power.
“The United States remains one of the most relevant partners for the region, but the difference in this context of strategic rivalry is that other global players contest its absolute dominance as a strategic partner and ability as a hegemonic power.
“It is not in the interest of the governments of the region to escalate tensions with the United States, but they also do not seem willing to abandon cooperation with other partners such as China, which positions itself as a major opponent in trade, investment and China have cooperation.
“Until now, the Latin American and Caribbean governments have managed their foreign relations from the perspective of active non-alignment, trying not to get caught up in a zero-sum game despite pressures, both explicit and veiled, to side with the other side.
“This behavior is typical not only of the so-called progressive governments, but also of the right-wing governments in the region; This is the case for some projects in Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador and even Colombia.
“The diplomatic sphere, access to resources and critical infrastructure affecting territorial control, and the deployment of technological capabilities – particularly related to 5G networks – appear to be the areas where this dispute is most evident.
“In any case, the position of the countries of the region will depend on the available resources that global actors can mobilize for projects in the region and on the countries’ ability to overcome pressures in areas as sensitive as security and debt.”
The President of Mexico, André Manuel López Obrador. Photo: El Universal de Mexico.
USA, Latin America and the threat to their “hegemony”
Analysts also point out that with this renewed resurgence of the left in Latin America and the region’s countries’ growing ties with China and Russia, the United States sees its global hegemonic position threatened. Much more so after celebrating an America Summit, where Washington received nothing but complaints from its neighbors. Something that years ago was unthinkable in the region.
In this regard comment on Cuba debate CIPI Researcher and Master in Contemporary History and International Relations, Elio Emilio Perera Pena.
Do you think the United States sees its global hegemony threatened? Do you act on it?
– The United States, feeling its world hegemonic position threatened, has sought to use force to halt the economic and commercial advance of Russia and China on the continent.
“Since the December 2021 Democracy Summit, the United States has debated the recently concluded IX. Summit of the Americas tried unsuccessfully to assert their supremacy. They feel threatened in their position worldwide.
“More recently, between July 25 and July 28, 2022, the XV. Summit of US Defense Ministers. In this conclave, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin accused Russia and China of wanting to monopolize economic, commercial and political relations with Latin America and the Caribbean, which drew opposition from both sides. mainly from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.
“As at the last America Summit, at this Defense Ministers’ meeting, Latin American interests moved away from some of the official US positions and the ideological positions of the Inter-American Defense Committee.
“Argentina, Brazil and Mexico declared at the aforementioned meeting in Brazil that the United Nations Organization is the only appropriate forum to seek solutions to the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv – an issue raised by Washington – and that is why regarding the special military In his analysis, the operation unleashed by Russia did not correspond to the summit meetings of the American defense ministers.
“Brazil is among the ten strongest economies in the world and is part of the BRICS alliance, which guarantees the nation of Rio de Janeiro a better geopolitical position in the international order.
“Argentina has Chinese support for joining the BRICS and deepening its comprehensive strategic association with the Asian nation, while there is an intergovernmental commitment to boost trade.
“With the Brazilian position of not accepting criticism of Russia, Brazil and Argentina also protect the agreements signed with Moscow in the economic and/or military order.
“China is currently the second largest trading partner and the second most important destination for Argentina’s exports, while the South American nation intensified its economic ties with Russia in 2021 (more than $651 million), including on the procurement and production of anti-Covid vaccines, and provides both Eurasian countries their support for the Argentine cause in the Malvinas, for the conservation of its marine resources and for the Antarctic territories”.