According to data from the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ), Quebec’s real GDP increased by 0.5% in October 2022 after falling by 0.3% in September.
• Also read: 8th rate hike in a row: Another tightening that hurts
This slight increase can be explained in particular by increases in both the goods (+0.5%) and services (+0.5%) sectors.
ISQ data shows that mining, forestry and agriculture recorded strong growth after a difficult few months.
Manufacturing continued to decline in October, while construction remained relatively stable.
On the services side, wholesale and retail made the biggest contributions to growth.
For Helene Bégin, senior economist at Desjardins, this slight increase in GDP in October is well above expectations.
“This resurgence is alleviating several monthly declines since economic activity peaked in March 2022. However, many sectors are showing downtrends, notably construction and manufacturing,” she explained.
Ms Bégin believes the possibility that a recession has already begun in Quebec “remains very present”.
The economist reminds that real GDP fell by 1.4% in the third quarter of 2022 and that “nothing is certain for the last quarter of 2022”.
“We will therefore have to wait a few more months before we can make a definite diagnosis. One thing is certain, the coming quarters will be riddled with pitfalls and the recession is unlikely to be avoided,” she concluded.
According to Statistics Canada data of December 23, 2022, Canadian real GDP at basic prices increased by 0.1% in October 2022 compared to the previous month.