In a rare televised address on Wednesday, Putin warned that if Russia’s territorial integrity was threatened, the Kremlin would “certainly use all means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.” This is not a bluff.”
Gavriil Grigorov | AFP | Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ultimatum to the West sharply increases the risk of a nuclear conflict, analysts and activists have warned, and world leaders have denounced what they call “reckless” and “irresponsible” threats.
In a rare televised address on Wednesday, Putin called in additional forces for the war in Ukraine and warned that if Russia’s territorial integrity is threatened, the Kremlin “will certainly use all means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.” would. It’s not a bluff.”
It was widely interpreted as a threat that after a string of Ukrainian successes, Putin was ready to use nuclear weapons to escalate the war.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev doubled down on the Kremlin’s nuclear pose on Thursday, saying that any weapons in Russia’s arsenal could be used to defend its territories — including strategic nuclear weapons.
It comes as pro-Moscow regional leaders in areas of southern and eastern Ukraine announced referenda on joining Russia. The polls are expected to take place in the Russian-controlled regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, which reportedly make up about 15% of Ukraine’s territory.
It is widely believed that the outcome of the referenda was predetermined by the Kremlin, leading the US and its allies to denounce them as “bogus”.
Political analysts say the Kremlin could then view Ukrainian military action against those four areas as an attack on Russia itself.
“I reiterate that the citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be guaranteed by all means at our disposal,” Putin said.
Putin’s threats drastically increase the risk of an escalation into a nuclear conflict. This is incredibly dangerous and irresponsible.
Beatrice Fihn
ICAN Managing Director
“These statements go beyond Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which suggests only the first Russian deployment in a conventional war when the existence of the state is threatened,” said Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher in the Weapons of Mass Destruction and Other Strategic Weapons program at the United Institute Nations for disarmament research.
“Coming from the person who has sole decision-making authority regarding Russian nuclear weapons, this needs to be taken seriously,” Baklitskiy said, noting that Putin’s quote of “territorial integrity” is difficult to pinpoint because the Kremlin plans to cite it take over four Ukrainian regions.
“None of this means that Russia would resort to nuclear use. This would be a truly world-changing decision,” said Baklitskiy.
“And it’s not clear if such a move would even produce the desired results.” [President] Putin … But extending the terms of a possible deployment amid the ongoing war is a big gamble,” he added. “One that we all, including Russia, would be safer without.”
“Erosing the Taboo”
US President Joe Biden condemned Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons and urged allied UN leaders to oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In a speech Wednesday at the UN headquarters in New York City, Biden accused the Kremlin of making “reckless” and “irresponsible” threats and said, “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
His comments followed those of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who told Portal on Wednesday that the 30-nation Western defense alliance will remain calm and “will not engage in the same kind of reckless and dangerous nuclear rhetoric as President Putin.”
Beatrice Fihn, Nobel Laureate and Executive Director of the International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons, called on political leaders to renew their efforts to eliminate all nuclear weapons by signing and ratifying the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty.
Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images
Putin has alluded to Russia’s nuclear weapons at various points in the conflict with Ukraine. Still, there are doubts among Western leaders as to whether Moscow would resort to using a weapon of mass destruction.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told German media on Wednesday that he did not believe the world would allow Putin to use nuclear weapons.
Beatrice Fihn, a Nobel laureate and executive director of the International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons, told CNBC that Putin’s “incredibly dangerous and irresponsible” threats dramatically increase the risk of an escalation into a nuclear conflict.
“Threats to use nuclear weapons lower the threshold for their use,” Fihn said via email. “The subsequent debate by politicians and commentators on the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons and possible nuclear responses without also discussing the devastating humanitarian implications of using even so-called ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons erodes the taboo against their use.”
Fihn called on the international community to “unequivocally condemn all nuclear threats” and called on political leaders to renew their efforts to eliminate all nuclear weapons by signing and ratifying the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty.
‘No Turning Back’
Max Hess, a fellow at the think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute, called Putin’s nuclear threats a “very significant announcement”.
“Well, the real threat of Putin’s speech was that he was willing to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory, including territory they want to annex,” he told CNBC’s Street Signs Europe.
“This includes not only the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the traditional Donbass, but also all of Zaporizhia and all of Kherson — Ukrainian regions that remain highly contested and where the Russians do not control their entirety.”
“What that means for the areas still under Ukrainian control in terms of Putin’s threats remains open,” Hess added.
If Putin were to use a so-called tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, there would be “no going back” and “no negotiations.”
In such a scenario, Putin “is done with the West forever, and probably even the Chinese, India, South Africa, the BRICS and the rest of the non-aligned world will turn against him by then,” Ash said. The acronym BRICS refers to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
A weapon of mass destruction, or WMD, “is a deterrent,” Ash said. “Once it is used, its power is actually revealed.”