“The strategic goals of the Russians have not changed, and therefore it is likely that in the spring they will launch a new offensive: Ukrainians, as well as allies, need to prepare for this and study what are the most likely needs of Kiev and how it can maintain the country”. This was stated by the President of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, at the end of the Chiefs of Staff Summit. Even Polish President Andrzej Duda said he feared “a new Russian offensive” and stressed for this reason at the World Economic Forum in Davos the need to send “more weapons to Ukraine.” The fear, Duda said, “is that the Russians are preparing a new offensive, so it’s important to send more support to Ukraine, especially modern tanks and missiles.”
Putin, the secret plan
The Russian offensive could therefore also begin in a few weeks. And already there is talk of a simultaneous attack on three fronts. Rustem Umerov, a member of the team negotiating with Russia, said the Kremlin is preparing the new push. The attack could come from the north, across the Belarusian border, from Moscow’s settlements in eastern Ukraine, and from Crimea along with the cities of Melitopol and Zaporizhia. “The Russians will attack from the Black Sea, Belarus and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” Umerov said. Colonel Oleh Zhdanov, a former employee of the Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told The Daily Beast that “Russia is concentrating many forces in the Zaporizhia region. Apparently they are planning a pincer attack from Kharkiv to the east and Zaporizhia to the south. In addition, the Russian army moves 12,000 men to Belarus and strengthens itself in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Kyiv moves
Part of the Atlantic Alliance now believes the war should end in 2023, lest the financial and political costs spiral out of control. And that’s why Kyiv must be able to make progress on the ground, perhaps to force those negotiations that Moscow actually doesn’t want. The New York Times reported that Washington — whose new mega military aid package will be worth a total of about $2.5 billion — is considering allowing Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against Russian targets in Crimea, just about the end to accelerate the conflict.
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