Russia’s move away from blocking grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports follows pressure from emerging economies and shows Vladimir Putin cannot bend the global South to his will, according to a think tank.
In a clear U-turn, the Kremlin said it would rejoin the grain export corridor after threatening to abandon the UN-brokered deal following a drone strike on its warships in Crimea’s Sevastopol port.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, October 31, 2022. Russia has lifted itself from a freeze on grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports after pressure from emerging economies, think tank Oxford Economics said.
But Oxford Economics published an assessment saying Moscow acted on pressure from emerging economies that had “got the upper hand on Russia’s efforts to weaken Ukraine’s economy”.
Russia suspended the deal on Saturday, reigniting concerns about global hunger and high food prices, which had been exacerbated by Moscow’s port blockade in recent months.
Turkey, which was a guarantor of the deal alongside Russia and the UN, is also likely to have stepped in as a powerful player because Russia relies on the Turkish capital Ankara to circumvent sanctions, according to the British think tank.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an ally of Putin and has not imposed sanctions on Russia over his invasion. He said on Wednesday he had spoken to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy about sending grain to African countries.
As a geopolitical and economic beneficiary, Turkey “would therefore not want to collapse,” according to the think tank. This shows that it is “much more difficult” for Russia to re-impose a blockade “without seriously damaging its reputation with the ‘collective South’ compared to the confusion in the early days of the war”.
Evghenia Sleptsova, senior economist at Oxford Economics, told Newsweek that the suddenness of the reversal suggested international pressures were more compelling than Russia’s motivation to weaken Ukraine.
She said the influence of Turkey and the Global South “must have been at work here” and worked as “a key broker of the deal”. The country has not joined Western sanctions and is serving “as a key re-export hub to help Russia circumvent sanctions.”
The ASL TIA ship departed from Ukrainian ports in Istanbul, Turkey, on Wednesday afternoon, November 2, 2022, a day before Russia announced it would temporarily suspend the Grain Corridor Agreement. Think tank Oxford Economics said Russia has bowed to pressure from emerging economies to return to the deal. Cemal Yurttas/Getty Images
Since the start of his full-scale invasion, Putin has pushed the narrative that the world was moving away from the dominance of the EU, the US and their allies. But his vision of a world order skewed towards the Global South could be undermined if Russia blocked food supplies.
“We don’t know exactly which developing countries raised their concerns this time,” Sleptsova said, “but when the deal was reached in July, there were reports of pressure on Russia from African and Middle Eastern countries.”
Russia’s about-face came after a convoy of ships transported a record quantity of grain, despite warnings from Moscow that it would be unsafe without its involvement.
Geopolitical strategist Alp Sevimlisoy told Newsweek that Turkey’s leaders “underlined that they would use military might and global influence to continue supplies with or without Russian involvement” and would “use force if necessary to secure uninterrupted flows and.” to protect”.
“The Turkish leadership has now turned the grain deal into a national security issue with global implications, which the Turkish armed forces and President Erdoğan vehemently defend,” Sevimlisoy said.
In his nightly speech on Wednesday Zelenskyy said Moscow’s about-face on the grain deal showed “the failure of Russian aggression”.
Meanwhile, the Oxford Economics assessment said the grain deal is likely to be extended past the Nov. 19 deadline, though Moscow may still use negotiating tactics to remove obstacles to its own grain and fertilizer exports.
It could also “trigger blockades of ships in Istanbul,” which would put further pressure on food prices.