Published on: 01/23/2023 – 18:21
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking a third term, on Sunday reiterated his desire to organize the May 14 presidential election, a month earlier than expected. What is behind this maneuver as an election that promises to be one of the closest in Turkey in decades draws near? response items.
He is the lord of the clocks: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, candidate for his own successor, reiterated on Sunday January 22 his desire to organize presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, after several weeks of discussing a new one election calendar had been speculated.
The date owes nothing to chance. It refers to the victory of Adnan Menderes, icon of the conservative right, in 1950 in the first free elections in Turkey after three decades of a single party.
“Adnan Menderes was the first to win against the Kemalists and put an end to this long period of ‘secularist’ rule, as they call it in Turkey,” explains Adel Bakawan, associate researcher in the Institute’s Turkey and Middle East programme . French for International Relations (IFRI). “It is a reference for the most conservative categories of Turkish society, the base of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is trying to send a message to his electorate here.”
>> Also read: Half a year before the presidential election, secularism is fueling passions again
To justify this calendar change, the Turkish President explains that he wants to avoid that the original date of the survey does not postpone the organization of university exams. In reality, this maneuver would save the “rice” a possible legal battle for re-election.
In theory, the country’s constitution allows for only two consecutive presidential terms. However, it provides for an exception “if Parliament decides to renew the elections during the President’s second term”. To ask for an early vote, “a three-fifths majority of Parliament is required, that is 360 votes out of 600,” notes the newspaper Le Monde.
Therefore, to confirm this change, Recep Tayyip Erdogan must find the support of at least 25 elected officials from the opposition, the AKP and the Nationalist Action Party, the coalition in power with only 355 seats. “But at the moment Erdogan is trying to imply that this is not an anticipation of the elections, but a simple administrative adjustment in relation to a busy schedule,” notes Elise Massicard, researcher at CNRS and Turkey specialist, who states that “nothing happened is ready now.” “.
A low popularity rate
Beyond this legal mess, the presidential candidate would seek to take advantage of more favorable dynamics in the polls while his popularity rating is at its lowest.
“The polls are not favorable, but there has been a slight improvement related to international politics in recent weeks,” assures Elise Massicard, who cites Turkey’s role in the file on Ukraine’s grain exports or resistance to Sweden’s entry into NATO . “There was a lot of talk in the Turkish media about Erdogan’s power,” adds the researcher.
While the “rice” shines internationally, it is in great trouble domestically: the economy is stagnating, the pound lost almost 30% of its value against the dollar last year and runaway inflation is making life impossible for millions of Turks. Part of public opinion also criticizes him for his authoritarianism, which began in 2014 and has intensified since an attempted coup in 2016.
Added to this is the thorny question of the presence of 3.6 million Syrians on Turkish soil. Adel Bakawan recalls a generous admissions policy that Erdogan wanted in the name of the “Islamic Brotherhood”. “However, these refugees are now perceived by a part of Turkish public opinion as a burden or even as an enemy”, in the context of the economic crisis.
Tilt “the table of six”
In order to block Erdogan’s path to his third term in office, which is far from over, a ragtag opposition, which has come together on a platform called “Six-table”, in which six political parties led by the CHP (Republican People’s Party) participate to nominate a single candidate.
Their aim: to put an end to the ultra-presidential regime introduced by Erdogan with the 2017 constitutional referendum, which notably allows him to legislate by decree and retain control over the appointment of high-ranking judges.
“But the opposition camp is currently unable to reach an agreement. Bringing the election date forward is therefore a means of taking them by surprise and restricting their room for maneuver in these negotiations,” analyzes Adel Bakawan.
Especially since the top-ranked opposition candidate, Ekrem İmamoglu, mayor of Istanbul, is no longer an option since he was sentenced to two and a half years in prison for “insulting” political leaders in December. The latter, who appealed against his conviction, subsequently denounced “a political affair”.
If Erdogan shows here that he has lost none of his political acumen, this change in the election calendar illustrates a form of fever for the country’s strongman, who for the first time in 20 years is no longer in complete control of his destiny.
>> See also: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, twenty years of dividing power
“This election is by no means a sure-fire success,” confirms Elise Massicard. The Turkish power, which has wide access to public resources and the national media to carry out the campaign, “seems therefore ready to resort to all possible strategies and to play all the cards at their disposal in order to win,” estimates the researcher.
“Despite everything that has been said and all the difficulties, Erdogan remains the favourite,” judges Adel Bakawan. “However, it is weakened and now there are doubts” about the outcome of this presidential election.