Lima, Peru – Dozens of civilians shot dead by armed forces. The gates of a leading public university being stormed by a military tank. Police stations set on fire.
Almost seven weeks after Dina Boluarte took over Peru’s presidency following the chaotic ouster of her predecessor, Pedro Castillo, the protests that have shaken the country’s south have metastasized and spread to the capital, Lima, where they have met with fierce repression.
The protesters, many of whom are Castillo supporters, have called for Boluarte’s resignation, as well as new elections and a revised constitution. An estimated 50 civilians have been killed since the protests began.
Now the burning question in the minds of millions of Peruvians is: how will their nation break this deadly political impasse?
In a Tuesday news conference, Boluarte called for a “national ceasefire” to “engage in dialogue and set an agenda” for the country.
But she also used her speech to denounce the protesters for failing to organize “a social agenda” and for committing violence and destruction, including by using homemade weapons.
“My country is living in a violent situation created by a group of radicals with a political agenda,” she said.
Al Jazeera spoke to protesters, political analysts and everyday Peruvians about possible solutions to a crisis that has exposed Peru’s deep-seated social inequality – and scholars warn of a possible slide towards authoritarianism.
Celia, an indigenous Aymara potato farmer, traveled from southern Peru to protest in the capital, Lima [Neil Giardino/Al Jazeera]
“Peru is waking up,” says the demonstrator
Celia, a potato farmer from the Puno region, said through tears and in a voice hoarse from days of chanting at protests that the moment had passed for dialogue with the Boluarte government. She declined to give her last name for fear of police reprisals.
“After all the blood she shed from my brothers, [Boluarte] must resign,” said Celia, who is an indigenous Aymara. She is one of many protesters from the Peruvian provinces who have gathered in central Lima to call for reform.
To get there, she had traveled a day, passing police checks and blocking highways, all the way from her hometown of Ilave, a village on the Bolivian border that has been rocked by recent violence.
Amid the din of protesters in Lima’s streets, Celia condemned a government she says has spurned its indigenous and peasant classes for too long.
“Peru is waking up,” she said. “We have been taken advantage of for too long. Without our hard work in the fields, Lima would starve.”
Demands from anti-government protesters like Celia once focused on the release of former President Castillo, who is being held in custody on charges of rebellion. But now protesters are increasingly focused on toppling Boluarte and demanding new elections and an overhaul of the country’s 1993 dictatorship-era constitution.
Rising tensions ‘will explode’
Analysts note that Boluarte’s succession as Castillo’s former vice president is constitutionally legitimate. She was sworn in the same day Castillo was impeached and removed from office, December 7.
But their use of military force against protesters, coupled with a refusal to recognize the legitimacy of their demands and crude portrayal of them as far-left agitators, have hampered their ability to reach consensus.
“They and their government have treated [protesters] with such violence and repression as to undermine the legitimacy of their government,” said Jo-Marie Burt, senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America, a nonprofit organization.
“If it continues to rule with its back to the people and keep the protesters in check with repression, it could take a while, but eventually it will explode.”
In a bid to defuse protests in Lima last week, the Boluarte government imposed states of emergency in seven regions, including the capital, which have impacted basic civil liberties, including the right to assemble.
On Saturday, an anti-terror squad with an armored vehicle rammed the gates of San Marcos University to evict nearly 200 rural protesters housed there. It was a show of force analogous to the repressive tactics of disgraced ex-President Alberto Fujimori, who ordered a similar raid on the university in 1991.
A group of indigenous Aymara protesters gather in central Lima to demand the ousting of President Dina Boluarte [Neil Giardino/Al Jazeera]
Narrative counterweight “lies on the street”
Analysts warn that if the Boluarte government resorts to such tactics, the door to dialogue with peaceful protesters will close.
“The government has given up the possibility of a political solution and is instead looking for an authoritarian solution based on what we call Mano Dura [iron-fisted] Politics,” said Paolo Sosa Villagarcia, political scientist at the Institute of Peruvian Studies.
Sosa Villagarcia noted that instead of seeking broad intercultural dialogue, Boluarte has instead opted to criminalize the protests and forge a governing coalition with her former far-right enemies in Congress, as well as the police and armed forces.
The political scientist also warned that given that the national press has largely peddled a law-and-order mantra and conducted limited investigations into state violence, there was little to contradict the government’s account of events.
“The only counterweight to their government right now is the streets, and they are being severely repressed,” Sosa Villagarcia said. “I’m afraid that at some point the government will be able to contain the demonstrators. After that she is free to do whatever she wants.”
A poll this month put Boluarte’s disapproval rate at 71 percent. With the death toll likely to rise amid the unrest, a majority of Peruvians see snap elections as the best way forward.
Faced with public pressure, Peru’s deeply divided Congress will hold a referendum next month to ratify the 2024 elections, which would require changes to the constitution.
Far-right factions in Congress have already set terms for their votes, hoping to secure guarantees that the government will abolish independent electoral bodies. That worries observers like Jo-Marie Burt, who sees elections not as a panacea but as the least-burdened route out of a deepening crisis.
“I don’t see any other way forward that doesn’t mean more repression, possible loss of life, or extreme instability, impasse and paralysis,” she said.