The result of Argentina’s primary elections caused a major shock in the country’s most important political alliances. Nobody expected the triumph of Ultra Javier Milei, who was the candidate with the most votes with 30% of the votes. The Peronist Unión por la Patria lost more than 5.7 million votes compared to 2019 and the centre-right Together for Change coalition lost more than 1.4 million; a total of more than seven million ballot papers. A week after the shock, both parties are trying to define their strategies for running against La Libertad Avanza’s candidate in the October 22 elections, when the president will be elected.
Political scientist Lara Goyburu explains that the two political forces went in search of the electorate “with two different lines”, although “one is just as difficult as the other”: “In the Unión por la Patria, the difficulty lies in the classic Peronist.” voters and in Together for Change is that the profile is shared with that of La Libertad Avanza.” Peronism reacted more quickly to the results, the political scientist believes: “There is already a strong call from all sides of the Pan-Peronism at that.” [decir] “The differences are over, Massa is the candidate, put your itch aside and go after him.”
On the evening of the same election, they began to talk about building “a new majority” in the Union por la Patria bunker. The official results were not yet known, but the party already suspected that they would not be good. As Sergio Massa took to the stage with the results that earned him the second most voter spot, the candidate warned he was promising that “the next government will not only be a government of coalition unity but also of national unity”. That’s the line he’s been taking this week as he continues the duplicity of being Economy Secretary and candidate.
Massa even said in an interview with the Clarín newspaper that he would try to convene a “broader” government that includes radicals and Peronist leaders “who accompanied Horacio”. [Rodríguez Larreta]“. During the week it emerged that his team was reaching out to the mayor of Buenos Aires, representative of Together for Change’s most moderate sector and loser of the centre-right Patricia Bullrich. But according to the national media, Rodríguez Larreta’s environment denied any rapprochement.
Goyburu points out that Peronism’s reputation is “clearer” than that of the centre-right. “Together for Change had not yet found the discursive and constructive axis by October,” explains the political scientist. This week there has been criticism within the alliance of former President Mauricio Macri, a space benchmark who defended that Milei was “part of the change” in Argentina; The economist returned the statement, saying that if Macri becomes president, he will have “a prominent role representing Argentina.”
This closeness to Milei led a former Juntos por el Cambio minister to say that this “kind of flirting” with the libertarian economist “very much confuses voters”. Also that Elisa Carrió, a member of the Alliance, who had declared that she would go into exile when Milei reached Casa Rosada, had resigned from her candidacy in Parlasur, although she said that it was for health reasons and that she was a member of the coalition published on social networks that “work on this project is not compatible with speculation or personal ambivalence”.
Adviser Alexandra Moreno analyzes that the proximity between Macri and the Ultra candidate “blurs the differences that might exist between Milei and Bullrich.” “Together for Change had to reorganize after a tough internship and they still see each other the internship affected them, leading to a large voter drop,” says the consultant, who is part of the #NoSinMujeres political scientists network. For Moreno, Bullrich’s challenge is now twice as great, as he must “keep Larreta’s vote” and “seduce the same voters as Milei” without getting lost between two forces. According to Moreno, the candidate will try to position herself as “the changing order”, because “change already means miles”.
On the horizon, the possibility of a second round after the October 22nd election seems to be a reality. To win in the first ballot, a candidate must receive 45% of the votes, or 40%, and be at least 10 points ahead of the second highest number of votes. With Sunday’s results showing a one-third scenario, none of the candidates would make it.
“The difference between first and third is no more than three points and that creates uncertainty. “It’s very hard to believe that there could be a big gap in 60 days,” stresses Moreno, who continues: “A third scenario leaves little voter space to capitalize on.” Definitely, [los partidos] You need to look for voters who have already decided to vote for others, and especially those who haven’t voted.” “The big question,” Moreno points out, “is whether this runoff between the both right-wing forces or between one of these two spaces and the Unión por la Patria.”
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