This content was published on October 5th, 2022 – 5:26 pm October 5th, 2022 – 5:26 pm

Miami, October 5 (EFE). – With losses currently estimated at about $40,000 million in Florida alone, Hurricane Ian is a devastating blow to that state’s ailing insurance sector, but fraud and lawsuits are worse than hurricanes, according to an insurance company specialist.

Just 9% of insured property claims filed by homeowners in the U.S. originate in Florida, but the state accounts for 79% of claims against insurers, says Shahid S. Hamid, director of the Florida International University (FIU) Insurance Laboratory. in an interview collected on the center’s website.

In 2019, these lawsuits cost insurance companies more than $3 billion in legal costs in Florida, she adds.

Hamid, in his interview with the digital The Conversation, replayed on the FIU’s website, explained why insurers are losing money in the state even as insurance prices have nearly doubled in five years.

Since the beginning of 2020, a dozen Florida insurers have filed for bankruptcy or left the state, including six this year, and Florida State-backed Citizens Property Insurance now has more than a million policies, according to Hamid.

Thirty other companies are on the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (FIOR) watch list.

The director of the insurance lab fears some of those latter companies could go under because of Ian, whose losses to date are estimated at $40 billion to $60 billion.

“Ian could be one of the costliest hurricanes in Florida history. I’ve seen losses estimated at $40 billion to $60 billion. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the companies on the watch list leave after this storm,” he says. . .

Citizens Property Insurance on Wednesday estimated the 34,000 claims it has received over Ian’s damage are likely to total between $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion and said it expects more than 225,000 claims in total.

After punishing western Cuba, Ian made landfall in southwest Florida on Wednesday, September 28 with winds of 150 miles per hour, causing devastation in that area and also in the center of the state where the flooding was “historic,” according to authorities.

“Insurance companies had over a billion underwriting losses in 2020 and again in 2021. Even if premiums go up that much, they’re still losing money in Florida,” says Hamid.

In his opinion, the main reason for the poor results is the problem of “performance allocation”. “Insurance companies have done part fraud and part exploiting lax rules and court decisions,” he points out.

Hamid said that’s what happens when a contractor tells the owner of a cyclone-damaged home that they can get them a new roof if they “give up their insurance.”

Builders can then charge the insurance company whatever they want without the owner’s consent, and if the insurer has trouble paying their claims, the builder sues, he explains.

Another problem arises from the fact that only about 14% of Florida homeowners pay for flood insurance, and some without insurance file claims with their property insurance company, arguing that the wind caused the problem.

Florida established a $2 billion reinsurance fund in May 2022 that can help smaller insurance companies in such situations, he says. EFE

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Despite strong protests, North Korea continued its series of missile tests. South Korea’s military said North Korea again fired two short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of ​​Japan (Korean: East Sea) on Thursday, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported.

The missiles were launched near the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. One flew 350 kilometers at a maximum altitude of 80 kilometers, the other 800 kilometers at a maximum altitude of 60 kilometers.

South Korea announced on Wednesday that the United States would again send its nuclear aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan to waters east of the Korean peninsula. The ship most recently arrived in September for its first visit to South Korea in nearly four years and participated in naval maneuvers between South Korean and US forces. The aircraft carrier is expected to participate in another exercise with South Korea and Japan in international waters later in the day, according to Yonhap.

South Korea: “Serious provocation”

The South Korean military said, “North Korea’s continued missile launches are a serious provocation that threatens not only peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, but also international society.” South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said Thursday morning, according to Yonhap, that his government would “comprehensively look after the safety and life of the population”. Since September 25, North Korea has launched six missiles.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also condemned North Korea’s repeated missile launches as “completely unacceptable”, as reported by Japanese news agency Kyodo. The government of Japan has filed a formal protest with the North Korean diplomatic mission in the Chinese capital through its embassy in Beijing.

On Tuesday, Pyongyang fired a medium-range ballistic missile that flew over the Japanese archipelago for the first time in nearly five years. Both the US and NATO strongly condemned the test. In response, the US and South Korea launched four surface-to-ground missiles towards the Sea of ​​Japan on Wednesday. The last time North Korea launched a missile over Japan in 2017, the country carried out a nuclear weapons test a few days later. UN resolutions prohibit North Korea from testing ballistic missiles of any range, which, depending on the design, can also carry a nuclear warhead.

Experts expect North Korea nuclear test

According to the South Korean Defense Ministry, North Korea is preparing to launch an undersea ballistic missile and an ICBM. Experts also expect North Korea to conduct its first nuclear test since 2017 in the coming weeks.

However, no common UN Security Council position on North Korean missile launches is in sight. Diplomats said no agreement on a text was expected at an emergency meeting on Wednesday in New York. Thus, a proposed joint statement from China before the meeting was blocked. Chinese Deputy Ambassador Geng Shuang blamed the US for North Korea’s behavior. In the past, Washington has not responded adequately to the country’s denuclearization measures. China is considered North Korea’s most important partner.

Last Monday, the Brazilians woke up stunned by the result of the first ballot. The current president’s supporters expressed sadness at the defeat in the first round. The strange thing, however, is that the mood in the opposition was not one of jubilation, but of fear and concern. In other words, both sides started the week anxious and unsatisfied. Therefore, in this article, I want to reflect on what this year’s dispute is really about, which will have major consequences not only for Brazil but for the whole world.

For that, I’m going to bring up some lessons of geopolitical thinking about controlling the world. Yes, for those of you who thought plans to control the world were babble of conspiracy theories, a good chunk of world powers’ military handbooks outline strategies for global control.

Brazil is the new heartland, the new region that can define who will control the world. This year we have acquired unprecedented geopolitical importance.

Alfred Thayer Mahan is now considered the father of American foreign policy. His pivotal work was The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, published in 1890. In the work, the author argued that control of certain sea regions would determine dominion over the entire world. Under Mahan’s influence, Halford Mackinder published The Geographical Pivot of History in 1904, in which he shifted geopolitical importance to control of land zones, not seas. In this work, Mackinder argued that control of the “heartland” (comprising Russia and Central Asia) would be the linchpin for hegemony over the “island” (namely, all of Eurasia). It also separates the world into other regions, such as the ‘inner crescent’, which includes Europe, China, India, and the Middle East, and the ‘outer crescent’ (‘outer crescent’), which includes the Americas and the Middle East. In other words, it’s an arrangement of the world map that places Russia at the center and America and Australia at the ends. However, I will suggest that recent and drastic changes in the international geopolitical landscape point to a shift in this global map layout. To this end, I continue with the reflection on the theory of the “heartland”.

In 2019, identifying control of Eastern Europe as a gateway to the domain of the Heartland, Mackinder wrote the phrase that inspired the title of this article: “Whoever controls Eastern Europe controls the Heartland; she who controls the heartland rules the world island; who controls the world island rules the world.” Next, Nicholas Spykman renamed the heartland and called it “rimland,” adapting the previous sentence to “who controls the rim rules Eurasia; who rules Eurasia controls the fortunes of the world.” Would that idea still be valid today, or do we have a new “heartland”?

First, it is worth remembering that it was these concepts of Mackinder and Spykman that eventually defined Western foreign policy in relation to Russia, making control of that region a primary goal of its geopolitical endeavors. In fact, we can say that recent history has been largely shaped by a struggle for control of this region over the last 100 years, and later by a USRussia struggle for world domination. The recent crisis in Ukraine repositioned the world in this NATORussia dichotomy, creating a kind of Cold War 2.0, as I have analyzed in previous articles.

However, the reasoning I want to propose here is that Brazil is the new heartland, the new region that can determine who will control the world. This year we have acquired unprecedented geopolitical importance. The world has realized that without food and energy there can be no iPhones or Tesla cars or even social stability. We know that some activities have always been essential for the proper functioning of a society, such as those aimed at housing and food. For no other reason does this type of activity receive major tax incentives such as: B. Investments in LCIs (Real Estate Letters of Credit) and LCAs (Agricultural Letters of Credit). The world has learned to appreciate food producers. And at this point we gain a new approach in the global geopolitical theater.

With the rapidly evolving energy and food crisis in the world, Brazil is one of the few that can restore Europe’s energy security and provide the planet with food security. Not to mention that Brazil is positioning itself as a strategic zone in the extreme scenario (but less distant every day) of a nuclear conflict. Because a conflict of this magnitude would be concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, the impact on the Global South would be less as it would be somehow shielded from eventual destruction, although exposed to some of the radiation and ensuing nuclear winter. This is all part of the “rear zones” theory that Colonel Enio Fontenele has presented so well in his books and lectures.

In the end, the power that controls Brazil (albeit indirectly through a local agent) will be able to guarantee the flow of food and basic infrastructure for a war scenario, such as energy, weapons and ammunition. Thus the theory of “posterior zones” was born. With Brazil as an ally, a world power could capitalize on our vast territory, far from the enemies of the north, blessed with countless natural reserves, a vast coastline, a favorable climate and gigantic development potential. Also because the US is moving its semiconductor fabs from Asia to America and the countries most likely to become the new Western technology hubs are Mexico and Brazil.

For all these reasons, given what is at stake in Brazil today, I propose an adaptation of Mackinder’s phrase: “Who controls Brazil will rule the fate of the world”. God bless us.

The La Viñuela reservoir in La Axarquía (Málaga), which has only reached 15% of its total capacity due to the drought Álex Zea (Europa Press)

The President of the Junta de Andalucía, Juan Manuel Moreno, who 15 days ago reactivated the tax war between municipalities with his announcement of the abolition of the wealth tax, has now raised the flag of the fight against the drought, opening a new front against the Executive of Pedro Sánchez with the apology of investment in public works. Not only is the Andalusian leader demanding more money from the state – up to 1,000 million euros – shortly after giving up his own income through taxes, but he has also pledged that he will match the amount the government puts in with funds from the Andalusian Treasury will double . A requirement that appears to clash with his decision to abolish the water cannon in 2023, in addition to the wealth tax, leaving 140 million in entry to be dedicated specifically to hydraulic infrastructure. Water management experts, environmentalists and irrigation companies consulted by EL PAÍS regret that the investment debate hides the real problem: the poor management of irrigation in the agricultural sector – the largest water consumer in Andalusia – which is a direct competitor to the Junta de Andalusia .

“The irrigation sector is putting significant pressure on all governments [andaluces], and that determines policies that should serve to protect water resources and ecosystems,” says Abel La Calle, professor of international law at the University of Almería and chairman of the board of the New Water Culture Foundation. “The official discourse is ecological, but the Board’s actions do not alleviate water shortages in the demarcations over which it has powers because it dares not regulate irrigation consumption. Savings are not encouraged or attention is drawn to the crop to be developed,” he adds.

If Moreno wanted to describe his previous term of office as a green revolution, he dubbed the second as “water legislation”. With the dying swamps – less than 25% of the backwater level – and disaster forecast in the agricultural sector – which accounts for 11% of the municipality’s GDP and provides 10% of the jobs – the first major initiative related to water was to set up a commission to monitor the drought , a crisis cabinet that meets weekly under the presidency of Moreno himself. So far it has been limited to authorizing emergency works, in line with recent action by the committee, which approved two drought ordinances in 2020 and 2022 to speed up or activate the commissioning of about thirty infrastructures.

It is the 141 million euros allocated to these projects that Moreno used at the conclusion of the PP’s provincial congress in Seville last Sunday to contrast his investment efforts with those of the central government, which totaled just 10 million, and start his own ordeal : “If they can put 500 million euros on the table tomorrow, the Junta de Andalucía will be there with another 500 million; and even if it was 1,000, we’re going to look for the beans, because the board will be here to put another 1,000 million in,” he said.

The central government has completely different calculations: It claims not to have contributed 10 million to combat the drought in Andalusia, but 170 million, plus a further 2000 million in investments for the next five years. The Ministry of Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge approved on March 15 this year 9.65 million for emergency work on the Guadalquivir delimitation – the only one under state jurisdiction, compared to the other three which depend on the delimitation as intra-community waters Board – and another 5.8 million to complete a double project: the connection of the La Colada reservoir and a drinking water station in the Sierra Boyera (Guadalquivir) to supply 80,000 people. This work had been declared an emergency in one of the board’s drought orders, but was halted at 95% of its completion. To these resources of the Ministry headed by Teresa Ribera are added the investments of the Ministry of Agriculture alone to combat the drought amounting to 156 million and the 1,400 million estimated for the hydrographic delineation of the Guadalquivir within the hydrological planning cycle 2022-2027 , which also include others 600 million for intra-community demarcations. “President Moreno is already wasting his time,” contradicted the government delegate in Andalusia, Pedro Fernández, this Monday, who stressed that several of the works included in the first decree of 2020 have still not been carried out.

In any case, the irrigation companies claim that the problem does not lie in the lack of infrastructure, but in the lack of control of the irrigation. “There are works that are necessary, but others will only serve to further overexploit some pools. In the Guadalquivir, which has a structural deficit of 300 cubic hectometres, this deficiency will never be filled no matter how many reservoirs are built, says Ricardo Martín, technician at the Association of Irrigation Communities of Andalusia (CREA). Its president, Eduardo López, considers that the main problem in Andalusia when it comes to water “is not due to a lack of investment, but to climate change affecting harvests”. “The works will not solve it. It is the responsibility of the Board of Directors to put the Andalusian irrigation in order and to stop the promotion of intensive crops in order to favor social crops that create jobs and settle the population on the territory, “says López.

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“An outdated model”

His speech is similar to that of the Social Table for Water – made up of trade unions, environmental organisations, farmers and consumers – which calls for ensuring balanced consumption and redefining the dimension of irrigation with ecological farming and livestock models. “The hydraulic works that the board is asking the state to do are long-term, they mean giving a push forward to preserve an outdated model,” says Luis Berraquero, Greenpeace coordinator in Andalusia. “The water problem is related to the imbalance of its consumption. Andalusia has no water but exports it in the form of fruit and vegetables. Irrigated agriculture has to be scaled back, but for that we have to ring the bell around the cat’s ears,” he stresses.

The board responds to criticism of the irrigation management with the investment mantra. “I wish we had water to feed all irrigation systems, but since water cannot be manufactured, the only solution is to invest to be more efficient, not to waste it, to be able to desalinate and recycle it,” says he spokesman for the Andalusian government, Ramon Fernandez-Pacheco.

“This is a governance issue, but changing inertia costs votes. The board does not care about the environment. That’s my perception,” says Professor Abel La Calle, who also questions Moreno’s abolition of the water cannon. “It is in all the autonomous communities and has a finalistic character, funding small communities so that they can carry out water purification and utility works. It’s an element of solidarity. If it is canceled on the assumption that the market or private initiatives will solve it, it encourages postponing and aggravating a problem that has already cost us a million euro fine from Europe,” he notes, referring to the 12 Million euros fined by the EU’s Court of Justice for failing to comply with European rules on urban waste water treatment. The board justifies the suspension of the water cannon with the “non-execution” that the previous socialist governments of the board made of the funds raised by this sentence.

Water, “hostage” of the Ministry of Agriculture

The decision of the President of the Andalusian government, Juan Manuel Moreno, to include everything related to water policy and water management in the Ministry of Agriculture has surprised ecologists and environmental experts. “It is the last straw that the protection of water is controlled by the sector that is its largest consumer. It is being held hostage by agriculture,” asks Abel La Calle, professor of international law at the University of Almería and chairman of the board of the New Water Culture Foundation. “That gives an idea of ​​how much they trust the new Ministry for Sustainability, Environment and Blue Economy,” says Luis Berraquero, Greenpeace coordinator in Andalusia, ironically.

Berraquero also warns against the construction of golf courses, which the Andalusian government has given priority. “The course was already set in the last legislature with the new property law and the removal of bureaucratic hurdles. What they call “water legislation” is the one that will guarantee the support of their constituents: agribusiness and tourism,” he protests.

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