The Iranian government’s brutal repression of demonstrations against the death of Mahsa Amini puts the parties involved in negotiations on Iran’s nuclear power in an awkward position. France, but also US President Joe Biden, are caught in a pincer. And this while several points of contention remain. France 24 takes stock.

Live ammunition, attacks on students, arrests of journalists… The Iranian authorities are relentless in cracking down on protesters to silence the revolts that have rocked Iran since Mahsa Amini’s death on September 16.

A stance that could further complicate diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the major powers (Russia, China, France, Britain, Germany and the United States informally) to salvage the Iran nuclear deal, although negotiations have stalled after a year-and-a-half exchange .

The tone has been rising for a few days. Several European countries have called on Tehran to respect human rights. France in particular called on Tuesday October 4 for European sanctions against those responsible for these repressions, which have left more than a hundred dead, according to a report by the Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR).

“In light of what is happening in Iran, stakeholders in the nuclear negotiations are less enthusiastic about trying to complete the deal at all costs,” notes David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at Iris, a nuclear energy specialist. “For its part, the regime is reacting more harshly to the protests and is even less willing to make compromises that would make it feel weak. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Iran will change its position towards the West in nuclear negotiations.”

“We dance on a volcano”

Furthermore, as David Rigoulet-Roze decodes, “Human rights are not a technical variable of the agreement. This does not prevent interest groups – especially Westerners – from stating their positions outside of the negotiations. Such is the case with the aforementioned new sanctions by Europeans and Americans in relation to the ongoing repression of these demonstrations.”

“The issue of human rights is extremely important, but if the negotiators include them in the discussions, there will be no agreement. And the Islamic Republic will judge that it is an interference and use it as proof that these demonstrations are a conspiracy from abroad,” analyzes Thierry Coville, researcher at Iris and specialist on Iran.

It has already happened, with Iran’s Supreme Leader saying on Monday that the “riots” were being fomented by the United States and Israel and not organized by “ordinary Iranians.”

France’s chargé d’affaires was summoned to Tehran last week after the Quai d’Orsay condemned the “brutal repression” of the demonstrations. “Iran considered it an interference to recall the basic principles of human rights and thought it appropriate to inform our embassy,” Secretary of State Catherine Colonna said on Tuesday, after her own announcement of the subpoena Iranian chargé d’affaires in Paris.

In this context, France’s position, reluctant to call for sanctions against those responsible for Iran’s repression, “was perceived as a form of silence, albeit undoubtedly the result of more prudent logic… We continue to dance a volcano and there are lives lost in Iran at stake, Paris doesn’t want to aggravate an already tragic situation, France doesn’t want to add anything and give Tehran the pretext to justify conspiracy accusations with alleged international interference,” decodes David Rigoulet-Roze.

Joe Biden was caught in the crossfire

The Islamic Republic’s brutal response to the revolts in the Iranian streets has embarrassed American President Joe Biden in particular. As the midterm elections in the United States on November 8 approach, it is “difficult for him to commit to a nuclear deal with a country that doesn’t respect human rights,” said Thierry Coville.

An embarrassment that leads to double talk. Joe Biden said in a statement Monday that “this week the United States will impose new sanctions on those who violently target peaceful protesters” in Iran. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre was quick to add that Washington could, on the one hand, condemn this repression and, on the other hand, continue negotiations to try to revive the 2015 international deal on Iranian nuclear weapons. “At the height of the Cold War, when President Reagan called the Soviet Union the ‘evil empire,’ he was also conducting arms control negotiations with the Russians,” she reasoned.

In August, Iran agreed to withdraw from demands that the United States remove the Revolutionary Guard Corps from the blacklist of terrorist organizations, marking one less point of contention.

Earlier this week, recent statements by Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman pointed to a rapprochement with the United States. Nasser Kanani said on Monday October 3 that “messages were exchanged between Iran and America” ​​in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in mid-September, by European coordinator Enrique Mora and other senior officials. It was “still possible” to revive the nuclear deal, he added, saying that “through the European coordinator and some mediators, including the foreign ministers of neighboring countries, efforts are underway to exchange messages to reach an agreement.” “If the other side, especially the US government, shows political will, it is possible to reach an agreement in a short time,” he concluded.

Meanwhile, Tehran has released an Iranian-American Baquer Namazi, who has been jailed in Iran since 2016, and his son Siamak Namazi, who was arrested in 2015, releasing about $7 billion in funds stranded abroad, according to the Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency (IRNA).

With this gesture, “the Islamic Republic is taking a cautious step backwards,” said Thierry Coville, for whom “current events are pushing Tehran to show flexibility at the diplomatic level in order to reach an agreement.” “There may be adjustments in hostage diplomacy on the fringes to release some of the funds deposited. But that will not allow an agreement to be signed. An agreement is first and foremost a compromise that integrates a series of restrictions, and we’re not there yet,” says David Rigoulet-Roze angrily. And the researcher recalls that even before the demonstrations, “the Iranian side was engaged in a logic of obstruction stuck”.

Management after “No Deal”

Can these worrying concessions mitigate the mid-September postponement? Paris, Berlin and London, which were still hoping for an agreement after the summer, have lost patience with the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program.

According to the latest quarterly report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Islamic Republic has continued to increase its stockpiles of enriched uranium up to 60%, which is close to weapons grade, and now has more than enough to start manufacturing a nuclear bomb if it enriches them a little. Another concern, since “Iran does not want to provide the IAEA with an answer on the presence of anthropogenic uranium found in three undeclared sensitive sites and related to the possible military dimension of Iran’s nuclear program: Marivan, Varamin and Turquzabad,” explains David Rigoulet -Roze, considering an impossible agreement under the current conditions. In a report released in May, the UN nuclear police officer pointed to Iran’s lack of “satisfactory answers” when asked about these three undeclared sites.

Another point of tension remains: Iranian negotiators are demanding that Joe Biden guarantee compliance with a future deal, even in the event of a presidential change in the United States in 2025. But for the American leader, this is simply impossible. “because the functioning of the American institutions does not allow it,” observes David Rigoulet-Roze. “Legally, Joe Biden cannot commit in the event of a majority change for one simple reason, which is the JCPOA [accord sur le nucléaire iranien] is not an international treaty, but an agreement. International treaties signed by the United States must be ratified by the United States Congress. However, there will never be a sufficient majority to confirm a possible Iranian treaty.

After a year and a half of intensive diplomatic exchange, the rescue of the Iranian nuclear agreement of 2015 is no longer relevant for this Iran specialist either. “It is the management of the post-‘non-agreement’ that is now considered hollow by Westerners in general and Americans in particular,” he believes. And this in the face of an Iran “which has become a country on the threshold [nucléaire] … knowing that they now have enough highly enriched uranium, coupled with inexhaustible know-how, to build a nuclear bomb if a political decision were made to do so. Which doesn’t seem to be the case yet.”

Exchange of allegations between Greece and Turkeyat a time when the two countries are essentially at the top geopolitical tensionswith the energy dossier and the consequent military and diplomatic repercussions. The Turkish foreign minister took care of it Mevlut Cavusoglu to revive the controversy over the American role in the Eastern Mediterranean, recalling that Turkey will supply arms and increase its military presence on the side Cyprus occupied by the Turks in response to the election United States partially revokedarms embargo in Cyprus. A few hours earlier, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan He claimed he wanted to “do whatever is necessary to defend that.” Turkish rights in the Aegean Islands”, raising further tensions as the current division of the Aegean Islands is the daughter of Treaty of Lausanne from 1923, regularly denied by Ankara since presence gas in this handkerchief of water.

geopolitics
According to Erdogan, Greece’s motivation to “arm the islands is incompatible with reason and alliance. The politics of provocation and from voltage it is not and will not be of any benefit to anyone”. Athens is concerned that this will be the case “Ukraine scheme” The Moscow-triggered annexation of the separatist republics can in some ways be replicated and invested in the Aegean as well Brussels and the Born the thing. In fact, the Vice President of the European Commission, Margaritis Schinas, reiterated his confidence that Europe will be able to act in a coordinated and collaborative manner on the energy sector, an issue closely linked to tensions with Turkey. He said he was particularly concerned about “the uncontrollable inflammatory rhetoric Neighbors”, and explains that he himself interprets it as “a character of its own uncertainty about their position in the world and in the current geopolitical context”. Translated: while Ankara plays a role in the game Grain and Athens can count on unconditional support in post-war diplomacy in Ukraine Washington and Paris under gas and defense.

The Role of Greece
Greece has become the new gas hub of the Mediterranean Sea, since the pipeline passes through its territory Beatthe interconnector Igb with the Bulgaria and that the port of Alexandroupolis is currently interested in the project Frsu, a floating terminal that allows you to increase the presence (and use) of gas. Indeed, Athens is the most important hub in the Mediterranean, also in terms of the decisions that are made about the gas present in Cyprus and in Cyprus Israelor rather the insoles Leviathan, zohr and Kronos. Until last year, the construction of the Eastmed pipeline bring in Salento the 1,900 km pipelines, but later the US stopped the onshore/offshore project because they said it was too expensive (6 billion dollars) and a harbinger of tensions with Turkey that would have been ruled out. The invasion of Ukraine changed the pattern and brought the issue of Europe’s energy independence back into focus. Among other things, the Italian Edison has recently reiterated that if the pipeline is built in 4 years, Italy could benefit from an additional gas flow of 10 billion cubic meters.

Turkey & Libya
For this reason too, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu will be visiting in the near future Libya to sign the bilateral agreement for the Exclusive Economic Zone where some Turkish companies will be involved in the exploitation petroleum and natural gas. Erdogan’s right hand continues to accuse Athens interferencewithout thinking that this Turkish-Libyan agreement is one “vertical” break in the Mediterranean map because it creeps into the waters Crete, which is known to be Greek sovereign territory, i.e. an EU member state. According to Cavusoglu, Greece is upset because Turkey has taken on an important role. “First of all, we signed the agreement with Libya on demarcation sea ​​areas. So we definitely have i western borders our continental shelf. Ships from Greece, Greek Cypriots and third countries have tried to enter the country nine times. We avoided all of that with the diplomatic effortsie with the measures we have taken on site. Turkey’s importance and success in the international arena are driving Greece crazy. That is why Greece wants to challenge Turkey”. Among the occasions Cavusoglu refers to is the one from two weeks ago when the Greek Coast Guard opened fire on a ship she had refused to stop offshore for an inspection Bozcaada (Tenedos), imNorth Aegean. The hypothesis being investigated by the investigators is that of arms smuggling on the Turkey-Libya axis. before the call Anatolianwas the name of the ship Mavi Marmara and was involved in the 2010 in an attempt to break the Israeli blockade out gaza.

The role of the United States
Washington, which signed a historic bilateral treaty with Athens for the use of four Hellenic bases, has identified Greece as its new base military support for two quadrants of absolute importance such as the Euro-Mediterranean and the Middle Eastern: the American Sixth Fleet will carry out maintenance on a Greek shipyard island, the base of Souda Bay on Crete will be doubled to increase capacity nuclear submarineswhere the airport’s long runway is already being used for parking B-52 bombers andair force presidents if necessary. Finally, the port of Alexandroupolis is already being used by the US Navy to move troops and vehicles NATO countries located in the extreme east of the EU. Greece even after the purchase 18 Rafale Hunt it was also to receive a patrol from France F-35.

The provocations
Coming back to the Turkish threats, the words of Erdogan and Cavusoglou are added to the ongoing ones trespassing in the Hellenic skies of the f 16 and from Turkish drones: The Minister of Defense also responded provocatively to one of the fighters Akar, which opens another front with Athens and Brussels due to Turkey’s membership in NATO. Turkey, which a few days later startled all Atlantic allies by its participation Samarkand at the top of the SCO, for the first time in NATO history. The US National Security Advisor spoke on the subject in Istanbul two days ago Jake Sullivan and the chief adviser to the Turkish Presidency Ibrahim Kalin. The two sides also discussed their continued support for Ukraine givenRussian aggression, including condemning Russia’s attempt to illegally annex Ukrainian territory. However, special emphasis was placed on “the meaning of dialog and from diplomacy in the dissolution of a disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean”.

Twitter: @FDepalo

Several men have been shot dead in Stockton, California, since July. Police have now released surveillance video and are asking for information.

Deadly shootings of six men in California are attributed to a suspected serial killer, according to new findings by investigators. Ballistics tests and surveillance camera footage suggested a link between the cases, Stockton City Police Chief Stanley McFadden said Tuesday (local time). So the first murder took place in April 2021 in Oakland, days later a woman was wounded by a sniper in Stockton, 110 kilometers away.

The victims were shot from behind in the dark

Stockton Police said last week that five men had been ambushed in recent months while alone in the dark. More recently, investigators said they saw a connection between all the cases.

The suspect’s motive is unclear, Police Chief McFadden told a news conference. But you know that “this person is on a mission”. Meanwhile, the Stockton Police Department has released surveillance video of a suspect and is offering a $125,000 reward for information leading to the arrest.

Woman survives alleged serial killer attack

The police chief said of the recording: “If everyone sees the video, I want you to pay close attention to this person’s erratic gait,” as Newsweek reports. He added: “We have no evidence linking this individual to the commission of any of these crimes, but we are interested in speaking with her.”

The woman, who survived the gunman’s shooting last year, described him as a silent 180 centimeters tall man wearing only dark clothes and a face mask, according to Newsweek.

As reported by the “Washington Post”, the authorities urged the population to be vigilant, not to travel alone and to remain in well-lit areas of the city. In the city of 779,000 inhabitants in the metropolitan region, 43 homicides have already been recorded this year.

Rfi navigation account, 20 minutes Time06.10.2022, 09:53| Act: 10.06.2022, 09:53

California authorities are currently searching for a possible serial killer suspected of killing at least five people in the city of Stockton, local police said on Wednesday (October 5).

Investigators have released pixelated video of a suspect, dressed all in black with his face hidden, whom they want to question in connection with five murders in the city over the past three months. It could also be linked to a sixth murder committed in the neighboring city of Oakland, about 50 miles from Stockton, according to multiple local media outlets. “That fits the definition of a serial killer completely,” Stockton Police spokesman Joseph Silva told AFP.

The five murders, committed over the summer in the same Stockton area, have a number of similarities, Stockton Police Chief Stanley McFadden told reporters Tuesday. These murders were linked by ballistic elements, he said, without giving further details. Police say at least three of the Stockton victims were homeless, as was a woman who was shot in Oakland in 2021 and survived her injuries. “We’re still trying to determine if one, two or more people committed this series of murders,” Joseph Silva said.

A video of the killer has been released

Police released video of the suspect seen limping slightly from behind in front of apartments “hoping someone will recognize this person (…) because they have a very specific gait,” the spokesman added. The suspect was filmed by a camera near some of the crime scenes. The victims “were alone in dark places, either late at night or early in the morning.” A reward of $125,000 has been offered for any information leading to the arrest of the possible killer(s).

In Stockton, a city of 350,000 40 miles south of the California capital Sacramento, police have stepped up their patrols and are asking residents to exercise caution. “If you have to go out at night or early in the morning, try to have a friend or family member with you and avoid dark areas,” advised Joseph Silva.

by Federico Fubini

Even in the first few weeks of the lockdown, everyone went alone, then the turning point came

The bills burned in Italy’s squares and the endless queues in front of retailers in France whenever Total offered a 20 cent discount are among the few pieces of good news that have reached Vladimir Putin of late. The Kremlin dictator hopes that his strategy of economic terror will work if he just perseveres. Because what Putin is pushing to Europe is simply an energy war aimed at breaking the cohesion of democratic societies to such an extent that governments are forced to change course.

Putin wants public opinion to be convinced that sanctions against Russia have not been worthwhile, that family and corporate suffering must end and come to terms with Moscow. That we must negotiate and press Ukraine for a ceasefire that will give the Russian army time to reorganize after defeats. Since the Ukrainians are not letting go – yes, they are sinking the punches – Putin wants to persuade us to let the Ukrainians go. He wants to do it by blackmailing us with gas. The sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline itself, whoever is responsible, seems to want Berlin to back down and activate Nord Stream 2 between Russia and Germany. It would be a retreat to the first and most symbolic sanctions against Moscow since the beginning of the war. For this reason, the stakes of the European summit, which opens in Prague on Friday, could not be higher.

The economic stability of our companies, the social stability of our countries is at stake, as is the future of the war that is being fought within an hour’s flight of our borders. Unfortunately, the European Union’s responses so far have been inadequate, especially now that we have entered the most dramatic and crucial moment of the conflict. The twenty-seven governments launched eight rounds of sanctions against Moscow without even thinking about defending themselves in the face of Putin’s reaction. The European Commission has long defended market design in the energy sector in Europe, despite the obvious absurdities: Putin’s practice of blackmail in the most political arenas; the startling fluctuations in the price of petrol on the financial platform in Amsterdam (the now famous ttf), which until a few weeks ago was treated as an untouchable totem; the hundreds of billions that Europe’s power companies have to deposit on another financial platform in Leipzig to sell their energy; above all, the untenability of invoices and their complete disconnection from any economic reality.

If it does not recognize these facts and does not provide serious answers, the European Union will inevitably lose legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens. After all, this is not an unprecedented situation: two and a half years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, the European institutions faced a similar dilemma. In the first few weeks of lockdown, some capitals and sectors told the European Commission the equivalent – with the differences – of what some understood during the first six months of the war: everyone had to fend for themselves there wasn’t much the European Union had in common could do, an innovative joint response was not required or impossible. Even then, mutual accusations prevailed for a while.

But then came the joint response in 2020 – with the upswing and the purchase of vaccines – when it was understood in Berlin that the euro area was otherwise in danger of disintegrating. Now, in this energy crisis, we’re probably at the same point. Paolo Gentiloni and Thierry Breton, EU commissioners for Italy and France, propose a joint fund for subsidized loans to countries, similar to the first launched with the pandemic. The fund would finance the layoffs of companies shut down by expensive energy: it would be the first sign that in Europe the problems of ordinary people crushed in this economic war are understood and that someone is up there in the cockpit.

Meanwhile, last night the energy ministers of almost every European country – including Germany – met confidentially via video conference to put final touches on the ten points on which they will ask Brussels to work. That’s a miracle, because up until a few days ago they were still fighting fiercely. Instead, this morning, together with the EU Commission, they will ask to draft a gas price cap for all suppliers (not only Russia), wholesale, also valid for existing contracts (not only for future ones), flexible and not as low as create supply problems. something that Italy has been demanding for months and that is only now on the common agenda because now, as in 2020, everyone understands that Europe is in danger of not holding out anymore. Maybe it won’t be enough, it needs to be tested: but an act of political will to reject Putin’s pressure and defend European citizens. For Mario Draghi and his minister Roberto Cingolani, it means getting closer to a long-awaited goal. For the next Italian government, a relay that can only be gathered by ensuring the highest level of competence and credibility in Europe.

October 5, 2022 (change October 5, 2022 | 23:05)

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