8:41 p.m.: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Wacha’s deal with the Padres could net him more than $24 million over four years, with a complex structure that includes both team and player options. Rosenthal notes that the deal’s structure lowers the AAV for luxury tax purposes.
08:44 am: The Padres and Free Agent Righty Michael Wacha agree on a contract, reports The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). The conclusion of the CAA customer contract is still pending.
Wacha, 31, was the best remaining starting pitcher on the market and arguably the best free agent left overall. The right-hander turned 127 1/3 innings with 3.32 ERA balls in 2022 – a good recovery that showed after a tough three-year streak from 2019-21. Wacha’s 6% walk rate in 2022 was particularly high, and he’s trimmed his home run rate down quite a bit in 2022 (1.83 HR/9 from 2019-21; 1.27 HR/9 in 2022). He excelled above average at limiting hard contact with his opponents, giving up an average exit speed of 88.2 mph and a 35.4% hit rate.
The 2022 performance wasn’t without red flags, however. Two trips to the injured list, one for an intercostal strain and one for a shoulder infection, limited him to 23 starts. That shoulder problem was his fourth IL placement due to shoulder problems since 2014. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% groundball rate were below league averages, albeit by a few percentage points each.
Ultimately, Wacha had a solid season, but she cannot reasonably be expected to replicate that sparkling 3.32 ERA. Aside from some under-the-hood numbers from last year, it should be noted that Wacha pitched 285 1/3 innings with a 5.11 ERA between the Cardinals, Mets and Rays from 2019-2021. However, Wacha’s strikeout, walk, and groundball rates at this stretch all compare favorably to his work in 2022, and the main culprit for his struggles at this stretch may well have been an unusually high home run rate that goes back to his Career level trended in 2022.
In all likelihood, Wacha’s true talent level lies somewhere between the extremes of that stretch of 2019-21 and his strong performance of 2022. Field independent grades put him at around 4.00 last year (4.14 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA ). That would make him a solid option closer to the back end of a major league rotation, where he’s likely to join with his new club in San Diego. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darwish And Blake Snell are being slotted into the top three rotation slots, but Wacha will give the brothers a solid #4 option.
Both Nick Martinez And Set Lugo They were expected to be used as a starter with the Padres in 2023, but it’s not a given that Wacha will bullpen both of them. There was talk of a six-man rotation at San Diego, which only makes sense given that Martinez and Lugo both worked mostly from the bullpen in 2022. Martinez made 10 starts for the Padres but 37 relief games and finished the season with 106 1/3 innings. Lugo was exclusively a reliever in 2021-22, his last start coming for the Mets in 2020. Both right-handers will likely see their workloads overseen in 2023, so Wacha’s inclusion gives the Padres both much-needed depth and organic mechanism, which allows you to manage the innings counts for Martinez and Lugo.
Even looking past the possible six-man rotation, the Padres are now simply better positioned to withstand an injury to one of their upper five arms. This is of particular importance as recent trades have thinned the depth of the system. are over MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddock, Luis Patino, Cal Quantrill And Robert Gasserthat were traded in the respective packages that were settled Juan Soto, Taylor RogersSniffles, Mike Clevinger (who left as a free agent) and Josh Hader.
The top depth options behind Martinez and Lugo on the 40-man list had been Adrian Morejon (57 1/3 innings in 2022), Ryan weather (6.73 ERA in Triple-A), Tear Knehr (6.88 ERA in Triple-A), Pedro Avila (13 1/3 MLB innings) and Jay groom (zero MLB experience; 67 innings triple-A). Veterans without a roster at camp include Julio Tehran, Wilmer font And Aaron Brooks. Suffice it to say that any serious injury to the starting crew would have stretched the depths ahead of the Wacha; two could have been disastrous. Wacha helps reduce such risks.
While the financial terms of the deal aren’t clear yet, signing Wacha could have significant luxury tax implications. San Diego is currently less than $7 million from the third tier of the luxury fine, which starts at $273 million. If the brothers exceed this point, they will be taxed at a 75% rate on any money spent up to $293 million (instead of the 45% rate at which they were taxed on the previously spent $20 million) . That’s a minor slap on the wrist in itself, but the move to the third tier of luxury penalties also pushes a team’s top pick in next year’s (ie, 2024) draft down ten places. The team’s bonus pool allocated to the league is also inherently reduced in conjunction with the decreased slot value of that selection.
The Padres are a team in total win-now mode, so perhaps owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations AJ Preller simply determined that breaking that mark is a necessary evil in order to field the best possible team for the upcoming season. If that is the case, further additions to the squad could still be on the horizon. Alternatively, with the always-on Preller, it’s always possible that some sort of trade will be orchestrated to bring the payroll down a bit and bring the team back under the luxury $273 million mark.