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Taiwan now faces a more powerful opponent in Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Chinese Communist Party Congress last month stripped Xi of the last internal controls of his power and bestowed on him status akin to that of emperor. For Taiwan’s leaders, this increases the already high risk of conflict. They warn that time is running out to do what is necessary to avoid war and save their democracy.
At my meetings with senior Taiwanese leaders in Taipei last week, several officials expressed concern about the outcome of the congress. Xi’s belligerent remarks on Taiwan at the congress and the fact that he amended the party constitution to say that China “will firmly oppose and contain Taiwan’s independence” continue a trend of increasing threats and aggression.
Of even greater concern was Xi’s purge and demotion of officials who might not support his hard-line policies, and his promotion of loyalists and “wolf warrior” diplomats. Xi, like other totalitarian leaders, is increasingly isolating himself from opposing views. This could make him more detached from reality and therefore more likely to do risky or dangerous things, according to Taiwan’s analysis.
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told me Xi had downgraded several Chinese officials with long-standing experience on the Taiwan issue, further complicating the already strained relationship between Taipei and Beijing.
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“It could show that Xi Jinping doesn’t trust bureaucracy when it comes to making Taiwan policy, and he seems to have his own small circle when thinking about Taiwan,” Wu said. “And if Xi Jinping is so distant from the reality of the situation in Taiwan … you can assume that his policy towards Taiwan may not be as realistic as we hope.”
Alex Huang, deputy secretary-general to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, told me Xi is now surrounded by yes-men whose sole purpose is to help Xi consolidate internal control and protect his power.
“They are not experts in improving China’s economy or improving its status in the international landscape,” he said. “So that creates a lot of risks, not just for Taiwan, but for the entire Indo-Pacific and the whole world.”
In Washington, the Taiwan debate revolves around whether (and when) China could attack — and whether the United States would step in on Taiwan’s behalf. Four times President Biden has promised to do just that. But four times the White House has also said that America’s policy of not disclosing its intentions, known as strategic ambiguity, has not changed.
This confusion cannot calm Taiwan’s leaders. They know that without continued US aid, a Chinese invasion cannot be held back for long. Whether that aid comes only in the form of arms (see Ukraine) or actual US troops is also beyond their control.
Taiwan’s leaders also know that there is no way to predict what a new all-powerful Xi will do. But they reckon the risk of attack will be greatest once he believes he has the military capabilities to retake the island.
Meanwhile, Xi will look for ways to escalate the situation, Wu said. For example, when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) visited Taiwan in August, Beijing deliberately overreacted and seized the opportunity to unveil new aggressive tactics, including rocket launches, blockade-style military exercises, economic coercion, cyberattacks and a massive disinformation campaign.
The most delicate moments ahead will come, Wu said, when Taiwan holds its presidential election in early 2024, when the United States holds its presidential election in late 2024, and when Xi nears the end of his third term and is poised to extend his term solidify legacy in 2027.
It seems clear that the preparations are not progressing fast enough at the moment. Taiwan is trying to revise its defense strategy to take lessons from the Ukraine war into account. But some things it needs, like anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses, are in short supply because most of the replacement supplies are being sent to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Taiwan is building backup communications systems, stockpiling supplies, sharpening its hybrid warfare skills, reforming its system of military reserves and trying to prepare a frightened populace for what might be to come.
Taiwan’s leaders admit the free world is suffering from fatigue in the fight for democracy. But if Taiwan falls, they say, Xi will feel empowered to go further — and at that point, stopping China’s advance will only be more costly. China is already attempting to claim much of the South China Sea and East China Sea while expanding China’s military presence in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Taiwanese leaders insist that defending Taiwan is Taiwan’s own responsibility. They understand that American willingness to help Taiwan depends heavily on whether the Taiwanese are absolutely determined to fight for their own freedom.
“We only have one plan – to defend ourselves,” Wu said. “Whether the United States comes or not, Taiwan must be prepared.”
That’s the right message. But if leaders in both Taipei and Washington don’t speed up those preparations, Xi could be persuaded that his opinion on Taiwan’s future is the only one that matters.