The election campaign has not officially started yet, but is already heading for a record.
Posted at 5:00 am
There have never been so many female candidates. And everything indicates that an unprecedented number of women will sit as MPs.
I’ve checked the candidate lists against the polls and seat projections from the Qc1251 site. It shows that women are no longer divided into previously lost constituencies. This applies in particular to Québec solidaire (QS) and the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ).
Many politicians and election organizers have told me the same thing: It would be more difficult to convince a woman to go into politics. It is therefore crucial to act upstream. The more female candidates there are, the more female MPs and ministers there should be.
The portrait improves.
Proportion of female candidates and women elected in provincial elections
- 2003: 27.0% / 30.4%
- 2007: 31.0% / 25.6%
- 2008: 31.0% / 29.6%
- 2012: 28.5% / 32.8%
- 2014: 29.6% / 27.2%
- 2018: 39.9% / 42.4%
The percentage for 2022 is not yet known as the parties have not yet finished announcing their candidacies. But everything indicates that we are finally approaching parity.
The CAQ has already presented 65 women out of 116 candidates (56%). That is more than in 2018 (52%). And with his recruitment almost complete, that rate is unlikely to fluctuate.
The same applies to QS, where almost all candidates are known. In the last election, the Left Party was in the lead with 53% women. This year the rate is 54%.
The Liberals and PQ have more problems. They represent 39% and 41% of women, respectively. However, this rate should be interpreted with caution as they each have more than 50 constituencies left where their color bearer has not yet been announced. This can be a strategy to uncover potential stars early in the campaign. But it also seems – if not particularly – to show their difficulty in attracting big names.
At the bottom are the Conservatives, in whose team only a third are women.
The proportion of female candidates is an imprecise indicator. It makes more sense to look at the proportion of women among those with a reasonable chance of being elected. It gets better again. Even if parity isn’t reached, we’re getting closer than ever.
Let’s start with the QAC.
First with the recent announcements in the Ridings it holds.
In 11 constituencies, the deputy is not seeking a new mandate. The results of recruitment to replace her: 10 women and 1 man. Compared to 2018, that’s two net women.
Next, let’s look at the rides the CAQ can wrest from its opponents. I have identified 24 where it is possible without necessarily being probable. Here the CAQ relies most on its female offspring. As many as 66% of candidates in these “portable” constituencies are women.
Well, Quebec solidaire. In the party’s constituencies, she provides four women and six men. Judging by the polls and the moves of his co-speaker, QS will also target a limited number of constituencies where he hopes to make gains. I see six in particular: Maurice-Richard, Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne, Verdun, Saint-François, Ungava and Rimouski, and there are twice as many women as men.
As for the Liberals, it’s difficult to judge. The party experiences a changing of the guard. No fewer than 9 of their 29 MPs elected in 2018 left politics. This leaves castles orphaned. There are six Little Red Riding Hoods awaiting announcement. In terms of female candidates, the Liberals are currently behind the other recognized parties in the assembly.
The Parti Québécois faces a similar challenge. Of the ten MPs elected in the last elections, only three will stand again. This exit wave has not allowed it to get close to parity. There will only be three female candidates in those ten constituencies this fall.
As for the Conservative Party, I have identified four places where they have some chance of winning (Chauveau, Beauce-Nord, Beauce-Sud and Chutes-de-la-Chaudières). There are four men.
How does Quebec compare? It’s better than Canada and a good student on the international stage without being a leader.
Percentage of female candidates in federal elections
- 2006: 20.8%
- 2008: 22.4%
- 2011: 24.7%
- 2015: 26.0%
- 2019: 29.0%
- 2021: 30.5%
This puts Canada 60th on the list of Parliamentary Unions2 worldwide. If Quebec were a country, it would be 18th behind Sweden, Finland, Norway, Argentina and Namibia.
What ultimately matters is power. In Quebec, the circle of influential ministers consists essentially of men who have worked with François Legault in the business world, such as Pierre Fitzgibbon and Christian Dubé.
The last step leading up is the highest. But this fall, the rise continues, on the way to parity. It’s not a heroic act. We are slowly approaching something else: normality.