Due to the erosion of Quebec’s sovereign-federalist political axis, many non-Francophonists are leaving the Quebec Liberal Party. A few weeks before the election, some of this electorate is turning to Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives, experts note.
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The most recent Léger poll ranked the Quebec Conservative Party second among non-French speakers in Quebec with 22% of voting intentions. A gigantic leap for this formation, which was still marginal in the 2018 elections.
Liberals are still way ahead with 49% of intentions among non-Francophones, but that’s still a historic low.
“Currently, the traffic lights are red for the Liberals,” says political scientist Philippe Dubois.
In Quebec, the PLQ has long received nearly 80% of community support.
“Basically, the sovereignty-federalism axis is no longer the main divide that characterizes the political game in Quebec, it allows others to express themselves [comme l’axe] left-right,” adds Dubois. “It also partly explains the decline of the Parti Québécois and the Liberal Party in favor of third parties such as the Avenir Québec coalition, Québec solidaire and now the Conservative Party.”
The effects of this political realignment initially hurt the Parti Québécois, notes researcher Éric Montigny. “What we are seeing now is the impact on the Liberal Party, particularly among Anglophones,” he said.
The PLQ is looking for itself
Although the referendum issue “remains important to a significant number of voters,” it is no longer a threat on the agenda, the experts say. Therefore, those who voted for the Quebec Liberal Party to block the sovereign option can now turn to other parties.
Philippe Dubois also believes that “postponing the PLQ” on certain subjects such as language has undoubtedly prompted certain allophones and anglophones to look elsewhere. “In short, this can also be partly explained by the pandemic, which was the spark plug for the PCQ,” he argues.
Éric Montigny adds that the Liberal formation has primarily tried to move to the left, which has caused it to lose its identity a little.
With Ms. Anglade, the PLQ is ‘searching for herself’ and has difficulty ‘orienting herself’. “The PLQ has long expressed itself as anti-independence and as the party of business,” he said. “There’s no question of independence anymore and he doesn’t have the label of business that was stolen from him by the CAQ.”
change sides
Loyal liberals are even beginning to openly switch sides. On July 6, D’Arcy McGee Liberal board member Bonnie Feigenbaum wrote in Montreal’s English-language newspaper The Suburban about why she decided to join Éric Duhaime’s troupe.
“Quebec Liberals had a dismal performance on Bill 96,” she wrote. “I have read with interest the Conservative Party’s platform and values […] What I like best is free votes for MPs […] I also looked at their position on Bill 96, they were against it.”
“I see the Liberals crossing”
Quebec Conservative Party leader Éric Duhaime notes interest in his education from non-French speakers and believes the “health drift” has challenged several immigrants who came to Quebec in search of individual freedoms.
Éric Duhaime believes that there is “actual interest among non-Francophones”, mainly because it is an electorate that is not seduced by Quebec’s sovereignty.
“With the Parti Québécois, Québec solidaire and increasingly the CAQ, with the arrival of Mr. Drainville and Ms. Saint-Hilaire, it becomes less and less an option … The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party remain, “says the Conservative leader.
According to him, the many course changes of the PLQ in the Bill 96 Act have left many English speakers “perplexed”.
allophones
His education also attracts allophones, he says, first- and second-generation immigrants.
He talks about some of his Montreal candidates whose parents left everything behind and left Cuba or Algeria in search of a better life and more freedom.
“It is certain that if a drift happens [pandémie] as we have been experiencing for the past two and a half years, these people are more challenged than we are. They value their individual freedoms and their democracy more,” Mr. Duhaime said. “They came here to free themselves and their children.”
Then he thinks he can take advantage of Ms. Anglade’s left turn.
“Dominique Anglade, who wants to create a kind of federalist Quebec in solidarity with the Liberal Party. I see the Liberals crossing. These are people who are more centre-right,” he said.
