Earthquakes in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria are causing an acute humanitarian crisis in the affected regions. According to current estimates, more than 35,000 people died in the affected regions and tens of thousands were injured.
National and foreign rescue teams continue to work at full speed in hopes of rescuing survivors from the rubble. The catastrophe that affected Turkish, Kurdish and Syrian cities was not unforeseen.
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Dutch researcher Frank Hoogerbeets of the System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS) research institute shared predictions on February 3 about the possibility of a major earthquake that could kill hundreds and injure thousands. The institute monitors the geometry of celestial bodies in relation to seismic activity.
Earthquakes have been announced
“Sooner or later there will be a ~M7.5 (#earthquake) in this region (south central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon)”, he wrote on his Twitter account, sharing a map showing the epicenter at the concerts in Hatay.
When the estimates arrived three days later, the tweet went viral. “How did you know that?” Write users in Turkish. “Guys, this is science, this is what we have never heard of,” replies another.
Regarding the narrative of a forecast, Hoogerbeets later tweeted: “Rarely do we issue a general warning for a specific region, as we did on February 3.”
Warnings were ignored
Turkish researchers also warned of the earthquake a few days earlier. Naci Görür, one of the most important scientists in the field of earthquake research in Turkey, wrote on his Twitter account on February 3:
We were called mischief makers. We were told not to scare people.
Prof. doctor Naci Gorurgeologist
“There was a magnitude 4.2 earthquake in Yarbaşı-Düziçi/Osmaniye. The earthquake occurred in the East Anatolian fault zone. We are concerned about the Çelikhan-Erkenek-Maraş section in this area. This section was stressed by the 2020 Elazığ earthquake in the far northeast. The last earthquake on this end was the Adana earthquake in 1998.”
In an interview with the TGRT news channel, the researcher complained that no one listened to him and his colleagues. He says they were labeled as evil bearers at the time because they had warned the government since the 1999 earthquake in the Marmara region:
“As geoscientists, we have said and written repeatedly that this earthquake is coming. Nobody reacted to what we said.”
They were instructed not to scare people. “Now people who were buried under the rubble are sending me videos, calling me by name and asking for help.” He stops. “I have to cry.” The Gölcük earthquake happened in August 1999 in the Marmara region, at the time more than 17,000 people lost their lives.
We don’t make a career here. We don’t try to distinguish ourselves.
Dr Cenk Yaltırak, geophysicist
Also a faculty member and professor of geophysics at Istanbul Technical University, Dr. Cenk Yaltırak broke down in tears several times during a live broadcast on FOX TV when he issued a warning.
“Don’t follow the charlatans. We don’t make a career here. We don’t try to distinguish ourselves. The Marmara region accounts for 65 percent of Turkey’s economy.” Then he makes the case for moving factories to the sparsely populated cities of central Anatolia: “Don’t make Istanbul, Izmit and Bursa bigger.”
In this way, attractive employment opportunities can also be created outside the threatened region and more people can be persuaded to resettle.
More severe earthquakes are possible
For Istanbul, researchers have been sounding the alarm not just since the current earthquake. But now, it seems, they are being listened to. According to German researchers, another strong earthquake is expected in the region in the coming years.
Even with concrete numbers, the catastrophe can hardly be understood: more than 22,000 people lost their lives as a result of the earthquake catastrophe in Turkey and Syria. © Emrah Gurel / dpa
Heidrun Kopp of the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel told DW that the last major earthquake happened in 1766 and that tension in Istanbul has gradually increased since then.
“That’s quite a lot,” Kopp said, explaining that built-up tension can erupt suddenly in Istanbul, as has been the case in southeastern Turkey.
More on the subject:
High-risk situation in Istanbul region Experts fear new earthquakes in Turkey The president, Turkey and the earthquake Erdoğan’s only government is in danger of collapsing Turkey’s earthquake from a research point of view Experts should also be heard
Experts agree: not only the earthquake as such, but also the weather, the season, the magnitude of the discharged voltage, the magnitude of the acceleration and the proximity of the settlement centers make this earthquake so dramatic in its dimension.
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