The Nintendo Switch has been on the market since March 2017. Record-breaking sales of Nintendo’s hybrid machine, both portable and home console, have proven that a console’s concept, catalog of games and price largely trump performance (roughly equivalent to an Xbox 360 in the case of the Nintendo Switch). Nintendo, very well supported by the strength of its licenses, therefore aimed correctly with its Switch, whose success swept away the arguments of those who blamed its outdated hardware as soon as it was released.
©Nintendo
The next few months are developing promisingly, culminating in the release in May of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, a title that, however, Zelda: Breath of the Wild 1.5, is selling very well and is the hegemony will strengthen the machine.
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However, just as Zelda BOTW opened the curtain on the Nintendo Switch scene, the Zelda TOTK was able to close it. We certainly shouldn’t expect the Switch’s successor to land later this year, but 2024 now seems like a pretty believable window.
In fact, after six years of marketing, the Nintendo Switch is inevitably nearing the end of its life. And while the incessant rumors of a never-before-seen Switch Pro encourage great caution, many analysts now agree that Nintendo will launch a new console within the next two years. The opportunity to think about the next machine from the Japanese company.
The Steam Deck is not powerful enough and has been having issues in recent games
Switch 2: a console in continuity?
To get straight to the point, the main question about the future console is: Switch 2 or not? Some simply hope that Nintendo will release a more powerful version of its console while retaining the machine’s hybrid nature.
It’s hard to deny that one of the main strengths of the Switch lies in the variety of its uses: many users simply prefer this console because it allows them to play in transport, for example, and then at home simply continue their session on the docked TV.
The current Switch and its Dock – © Nintendo
So going for a 100% portable console or a 100% home console could be seen by many as a step backwards and seriously limit the desirability of the future machine. It would therefore be very difficult for Nintendo to abandon the concept of Switch and go back. Also, a “basic” home console would face the main competition from the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S; Nintendo might not want to venture into that field. Of course, the company’s engineers may have a new idea in mind that no one else is thinking of at the moment.
The other main argument – or rather hope – in favor of a Switch 2 in continuity is, of course, backwards compatibility. If Nintendo tells its flock during the formalization of a future console that their collection of physical/dematerialized Nintendo Switch games won’t be usable on the new machine, it’s likely that it will cause a lot of dissatisfaction and disappointment. . After that, regardless of the console, this decision is mainly a commercial one.
The Wii U, a Case of Jurisdiction for Nintendo?
Unfortunately, the Wii/Wii U experience could stop Nintendo from offering a “basic” Switch 2. The Wii U remains one of the brand’s biggest flops to date, with just over 13 million consoles sold, versus more than 100 million for the Wii.
The reasons for this failure are manifold. Not all customers may have understood the differences between the two consoles. Or they simply concluded that the first console adequately met their needs.
Either way, Nintendo probably learned from its mistakes. We’re betting that when there is Switch 2, it will differ enough from the Switch to be noticed – and coveted.
The hybrid console, a credo from Nintendo that renounces the race for power
For our part, we think Nintendo will keep the concept of the hybrid console; prosaic because the brand rules in this market. In addition, as mentioned a few lines above, not hybridizing would mean exposing the future console to direct competition with other products.
In fact, offering a machine with a portable component introduces certain limitations. For reasons of autonomy, it makes no sense to integrate an overpowered SoC if it eats up the watts. In total, the Switch consumes between 8 and 15 W. The Steam Deck, Valve’s portable console, also has a very simple SoC with a 15 W TDP.
On this subject, the developers of the Steam Deck recently declared that exceeding these thresholds for a portable console is heresy. Consequently, they did not consider it relevant to grant their console a new SoC. They estimate it will be several generations before a real performance boost is seen in this thermal shell.
This postulate certainly applies to Valve’s console, released just last year, which embeds a Ryzen Zen 2 / RDNA 2 APU engraved in 7nm, but it applies to the Nintendo Switch.
What components are integrated into the Switch 2?
Depending on the version, the Nintendo console is powered by an Nvidia Tegra X1 / X1+ chip. This chip is not young anymore: It was released in 2015 and features a GM20B GPU with 256 cores under Maxwell architecture and four ARM Cortex-A57 CPU cores whose design dates back to 2012. TSMC engraves the Tegra X1 in 20 nm, the X1+ in 16 nm.
Tegra X1 Cube (Fritzchens Fritz – CC0 1.0)
In 2023, in the era of 4nm Ada Lovelace GPUs and ARMv9 architecture, there is bound to be room to create a much more powerful console, even within the confines of a 15W TDP SoC and without skyrocketing manufacturing costs . Additionally, the integration of DLSS technologies would give a big boost to Nintendo’s next console, which offers upscaled 4K on TV.
On the hardware side, the Tegra X1 chip has actually shown its limits – some will think it has been for a few years. After that, optimization, as always, can bring small miracles or, on the contrary, catastrophes. Last example so far: the game Pokémon Scarlet/Purple from another era, also for the Switch, suffering from a despicable technology. Ironically, this production, when it verges on lewdness and disrespect for the players, breaks sales records for the series.
Heading for a Switch 2 in 2024, armed with a more powerful Tegra SoC?
Conclusion: With regard to the concept, we are of course not immune to a surprise from Nintendo. However, you will have noticed when you read us. We can see that the future machine will retain its distinctiveness as a hybrid console. Simply because this trait would allow him to continue to differentiate himself and play on two fronts, brilliantly on both occasions. Thanks to its lightness and autonomy, the Switch is an excellent portable console. Then, whatever we say, it also remains an excellent home console that perfectly fulfills its role as a family console, especially by offering the possibility of playing up to eight locally.
In terms of hardware, Nintendo now has a lot of leeway to come up with a new, much more efficient console, even if opting for a SoC with a reasonable TDP and maintaining a sustainable manufacturing cost. Specifically, according to some analysts, Nintendo has a retail price of $400 in mind for its future console. Regarding the SoC, a September 2022 leak mentioned a Tegra 239 SoC. This chip would have 2,048 CUDA cores, for FP32 performance of 4 TFLOPS, which is roughly 10 times that of the switch. We would stay away from the 10 TFLOPS
In any case, you should approach the assumptions of this paper with some caution; they essentially result from a personal analysis based on the current market situation. Nintendo is leaking next to nothing about its future plans, and at this point we haven’t heard of any dev kits that might support any of that.
Nintendo Switch
Comes with a pair of neon red and neon blue Joy-Con
Amazon
€269.94
Discover the offer
Culture
€269.99
Discover the offer
Discount
€269.99
Discover the offer
E. Leclerc
299€
Discover the offer