Since the announcement of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential candidacy, the vast majority of analysts have speculated on his chances of success, as well as the identity of potential rivals. If many immediately identified Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the portrait is just about to develop.
If Donald Trump remains the only one to officially launch his operations, we expect at least four or five other participants. DeSantis, of course, but also Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, or even South Carolina Senator Tim Scott.
In order not to forget anyone, we were able to keep an eye on a few other chosen ones. Ted Cruz, back in the ranks in 2016, might be tempted to return, but I’d particularly give the spotlight to Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, and South Dakota Gov. Kristino .
Back in November 2021, I drew your attention to a possible candidacy for former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. She is to confirm her participation in the race on Wednesday. She seems to me to have all the qualities to triumph over Joe Biden if he is indeed the Democratic nominee in 2024.
Haley made her mark by becoming the state’s youngest governor in 2010, the first woman who is also from a minority group. Conservative without being radically MAGA, she remained loyal to her president when she represented the administration at the UN, but knew how to distance herself when the time came.
She is not associated with Trump’s darkest or most controversial statements, and she left office well before the misinformation and violence surrounding the contesting of the 2020 election results and, most importantly, well before the attack on the Capitol.
While the abortion question is expected to sway female voters in 2024, also expect the former governor to insist she may be the only woman in the race. When asked about the identity of her possible opponents, all men, she also launched: “May the best woman win”, that the best woman wins!
Difficult scenario for Republicans
I believe in the potential and relevance of Nikki Haley’s candidacy, but her entry onto the scene could be a headache for Republican Party leaders and their strategists.
As long as Trump perseveres, multiplying the candidates will have the effect of dividing the votes. If the 45th President’s base is acquired, the others will only tear each other apart. A replay of the 2016 script.
So far, the big loser from Wednesday’s announcement is Ron DeSantis. Alone on the track against Trump he stands a chance, while if challenged he should give Trump the win. These numbers from a Yahoo!/YouGov simulation seem to confirm this.