Published on: 09.08.2022 – 14:39
Russia announced Monday, August 8, 2022, that it would suspend planned US inspections of its military sites under the New Start Treaty in response to US obstruction of similar Russian inspections in the United States. The New Start Treaty is a major nuclear disarmament deal between the two powers that will be renegotiated in 2021. Commentary by Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the Ifri Center for Security Studies and coordinator of the Deterrence and Proliferation program.
RFI : What are the consequences of such a decision ?
Heloise Fayet : It should be noted that the inspections of military nuclear sites provided for in the New Start agreement had already been suspended in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which obviously indicates the continued presence of inspectors in Russia and the United States. So, Suspension for political reasons these inspections have no a priori short-term impact on safety or knowledge of nuclear arsenals.
But it’s a rather worrying, even serious, symbol of the lack of trust, and most importantly deteriorating real trust, between Russia and the United States on an issue as important as nuclear arsenals. The positive point is that the notifications are not suspended at the moment, and that is another part of the New Star agreement that is also very important: the fact that a nuclear military exercise, such as the launch of a Russian ballistic missile , which must be reported to the United States, so far it has not been suspended.
Could this decision ultimately end this deal? ?
The agreement itself is not very healthy, if I do say so myself, because it has been extended in 2021 against all odds. It was expected that this would not be the case, and eventually President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin managed to agree on an extension at the last minute. On the other hand, it has a five-year term, that is, until 2026, and in the current context of the war in Ukraine and the lack of trust between Russia and the United States, it seems extremely unlikely that a new edition of New Start will be signed in 2026.
This decision is very political and is directly related to the conflict in Ukraine ?
This decision is related to the war in Ukraine. As we have seen, this war is taking place in the nuclear shadow, with Russia maintaining ballistic missile tests on the one hand and the United States canceling its own ballistic tests on the other. We also remember Vladimir Putin’s statements about the power of the Russian arsenal. And so it is effectively another holdover, in quotes, of the Cold War and a coordination mechanism between Russia and the United States that is beginning to crumble.
From this decision by Moscow, can we see a desire to use this type of weapon? ?
Fortunately, the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, or any other nuclear-armed country, is heavily regulated. And right now, Russia is following its doctrine with extremely limited terms of use that are not being met. But we’ve seen a whole Russian strategy report with on the one hand President Putin, who was quite vehement, almost provocative, and backed by the Russian media, showing that if Russia deployed a nuclear missile, he could destroy Paris in six minutes, which it didn’t the case is. On the other hand, we saw an attempt at de-escalation, led by other members of the Russian government, which in turn was circulated in the press to avoid any misunderstanding of Russia’s nuclear strategy.
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