The months-expected large-scale attack, including Western heavy weapons, does not seem to be taking off or is being done in secret. There are some problems with this too – not least because it’s widely expected. assessment attempt.
It is said that the announced revolutions do not – or rarely – happen. This probably applies analogously to announced military operations, especially offensive ones in an ongoing war.
This can be seen in the Ukrainian spring offensive that has been expected for months: many times, already in March, there was speculation that it could start at any time, although the weather, the state of the terrain, the level of new material, new units and the Ukrainians’ ammunition stocks were clearly not playing their part. By early May, things had improved in many ways (let alone when it came to ammunition), and there was even a long window of dry weather.
And what followed? The Russians have indeed conquered the city of Bakhmut in Donbass, a 21st-century Stalingrad that has been hotly fought over for the past year; Skirmishes continue over 1,500 kilometers of front plus state border; Missiles and drones fly back and forth; Italian broadcaster RAI yesterday quoted Ukraine government adviser Mykhailo Podoliak as saying the offensive had lasted “for several days”. “Individual operations have begun.”